CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

537
URNT15 KNHC 161524
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 04 20070816
151600 1733N 06354W 4482 06777 0407 -105 -396 106021 022 999 999 03
151630 1733N 06352W 4419 06891 0414 -112 -403 110019 020 999 999 03
151700 1733N 06350W 4362 06983 0419 -121 -408 111021 022 999 999 03
151730 1732N 06348W 4297 07100 0427 -127 -411 112022 022 999 999 03
151800 1732N 06347W 4244 07194 0433 -136 -413 114022 023 999 999 03
151830 1731N 06345W 4191 07284 0437 -140 -416 117023 025 999 999 03
151900 1731N 06343W 4136 07391 0444 -147 -418 118025 026 999 999 03
151930 1731N 06341W 4089 07475 0449 -156 -416 116025 026 999 999 03
152000 1730N 06340W 4040 07567 0456 -162 -377 113026 026 999 999 03
152030 1730N 06338W 4005 07636 0461 -167 -388 108027 027 999 999 03
152100 1729N 06336W 3992 07657 0460 -170 -413 109027 027 999 999 03
152130 1729N 06334W 3990 07657 0459 -170 -423 109027 027 999 999 03
152200 1729N 06332W 3992 07654 0458 -170 -425 111027 027 999 999 03
152230 1728N 06330W 3992 07655 0458 -170 -424 109028 028 999 999 03
152300 1728N 06328W 3993 07654 0458 -170 -421 109027 027 999 999 03
152330 1727N 06326W 3997 07648 0459 -170 -417 109026 027 999 999 03
152400 1727N 06324W 3992 07656 0460 -170 -412 109027 027 999 999 03
152430 1726N 06321W 3994 07652 0460 -170 -408 109027 027 999 999 03
152500 1726N 06319W 3993 07656 0460 -170 -403 108027 027 999 999 03
152530 1725N 06316W 3994 07654 0461 -170 -399 109027 027 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes I do...it's a great read:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2007/dean.html

[StormWarning1]

From nencweather

"GFDL shows a ridge with a southern periphery oriented more northwest to southeast than other models. The 06Z NOGAPS had shown a similar solution. In previous years, GFDL has shown excellent skill, particularly in 2005, in predicting the strength of the subtropical ridge compared to other models. However, when given a secondary ridge such as the scenario seen here, it has performed poorly, often showing a bias to the north due to underestimating the new high pressure strength. This was seen several times in 2004. With respect to this, the track will remain in the guidance envelope, and will only be shifted northward if significant evidence that the secondary high pressure will not be as strong as indicated. Otherwise, no other major steering currents will impact Dean, and there is little else to say except that the farther north Dean goes, the slower it will move because the ridge will be weaker. The track forecast is down the center of the guidance envelope and takes Dean into the Yucatan Peninsula by Day 5."

Do you happen to have a link... I would like to read future discussions. Thanks!

You can read the discussion in the tropical analysis forum. He post under the name ncweatherwizard.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z cranking....Let's see what this one has...Any bets?

[Brent]

Martinique is going to get nailed... the storm looks OMINOUS. Very symmetrical, great outflow, this is going to be bad.

[SouthFloridawx]

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z cranking....Let's see what this one has...Any bets?

Just got paid too..

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EJ’s Forecasts
Hurricane Dean
Advisory 7
11:00AMEDT

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Watch continues for the islands of Martinique... Guadeloupe and its dependencies. The meteorological service of Antigua has upgraded the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Montserrat...Antigua...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Barbuda. The Barbados meteorological service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The government of the Netherlands Antilles has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The tropical storm watch for St. Marten has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grenada and its dependencies.


Dean continues to intensify as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Thus, Hurricane Warnings have been issued, as seen above. I recommend a Tropical Storm Watch be issued for the island of Puerto Rico later today.

The latest NHC advisory has Hurricane Dean as a very strong Category 1 with winds in excess of 90 MPH. Only a small increase in wind speed will result in an upgrade to a Category 2 hurricane. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen in either the 2:00PMEDT or 5:00PMEDT advisories. It is possible that Dean is currently undergoing rapid intensification.

However, Dean has proven to me that it is a Category 2 with winds of about 95 MPH, possibly higher. This is based off of the latest satellite images, which show Dean greatly organizing. It is possible that Dean can eventually become a annular hurricane. So, for the purposes of this forecast of mine, Dean is a Category 2 hurricane with 95 MPH winds and Dean also has a current pressure of 976 MB.

Dean is currently heading west at about 23 MPH. This westward motion should continue through the next few days followed by a general WNW heading.


Pinpointing the center of Hurricane Dean is much easier now that it is forming a pinhole eye. The current center of dean is at 54.2W and 13.4N.

Almost all of the computer models are in agreement this morning, except for the GFDL. Most of the models take Dean through the Caribbean islands and either into or above the Yucatan Peninsula. The problem with the latest GFDL is that it takes Dean more northward than the other models, Into Cuba, and setting up a dangerous situation for the northern gulf coast. The GFDL is being disregarded for my forecast cone for this advisory.
After dean passes through the Lesser Antilles, the next major area of concern will be Jamaica. People in Jamaica should start preparing for a Category 3 direct strike.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are going to fly into Dean twice today. Their data will be incorporated into my next forecast.

INITIAL 95 MPH
12HR 100 MPH
24HR 105 MPH
48HR 115 MPH
72HR 125 MPH
96HR 135 MPH

[canegrl04]

Dallas NBC affiliate mid morning news weather lady said Dean has a"very good chance of missing the Yucatan and going thru to the GOM"

[HURAKAN]

Dallas NBC affiliate mid morning news weather lady said Dean has a very good chance of missing the Yucatan and going thru to the GOM

Good bet for a small channel!!!

I wounldn't put my money on it.

[Blown Away]

Remember this:
TD Ernesto
August 24, 2006
12.9N/62.4W
Moving W at 22mph

[weatherguru18]

Still looks like a pretty small system as far as winds from the center.

[Sanibel]

Remember this:
TD Ernesto

Come on. Totally different steering environment.

[Derek Ortt]

suprecell right over the center... usually means rapidly falling pressure

[Cyclone1]

suprecell right over the center... usually means rapidly falling pressure

Oh geez.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Remember this:
TD Ernesto

Come on. Totally different steering environment.

yeah, and a totally different storm in general too. TD #5 was weak and kept reforming and eventually became Ernesto. Dean, on the other hand, will be a powerful hurricane in the eastern Caribbean with no center reformations and a better model handled track.

[SouthFloridawx]

487
URNT15 KNHC 161533
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 05 20070816
152600 1724N 06314W 3992 07659 0462 -171 -394 110026 027 999 999 03
152630 1724N 06312W 3994 07654 0463 -170 -389 110026 026 999 999 03
152700 1723N 06309W 3993 07657 0463 -170 -385 111026 027 999 999 03
152730 1723N 06307W 3994 07657 0463 -170 -383 111025 025 999 999 03
152800 1722N 06304W 3994 07656 0463 -170 -378 109026 027 999 999 03
152830 1722N 06302W 3993 07659 0465 -170 -366 109026 026 999 999 03
152900 1721N 06259W 3994 07660 0466 -171 -352 109026 026 999 999 03
152930 1721N 06257W 3994 07660 0466 -170 -334 108026 027 999 999 03
153000 1720N 06254W 3994 07658 0467 -170 -315 107027 027 999 999 03
153030 1719N 06252W 3997 07655 0467 -170 -298 108027 028 999 999 03
153100 1719N 06250W 4001 07646 0465 -170 -285 104030 031 999 999 03
153130 1718N 06247W 3992 07662 0465 -172 -274 106028 029 999 999 03
153200 1718N 06245W 3995 07656 0465 -172 -263 107026 026 999 999 03
153230 1717N 06242W 3992 07660 0463 -174 -252 104028 029 999 999 03
153300 1717N 06240W 3994 07654 0462 -172 -242 103029 029 999 999 03
153330 1716N 06237W 3994 07655 0461 -173 -233 104029 029 999 999 03
153400 1716N 06235W 3994 07651 0459 -175 -225 105029 029 999 999 03
153430 1716N 06232W 3994 07652 0461 -174 -218 105028 029 999 999 03
153500 1715N 06230W 4000 07650 0467 -174 -211 105027 028 999 999 03
153530 1715N 06227W 3994 07656 0464 -173 -206 106028 028 999 999 03
$$

[DESTRUCTION5]

Remember this:
TD Ernesto

Come on. Totally different steering environment.

It was a bout the same...just strength is the difference..

[HURAKAN]

Except for Tulum, the Mayans didn't built a major city facing the Caribbean Sea. I guess they knew very well about the monsters that the Caribbean can produce.