CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[msbee]

Thanks HUC
Keep giving us updates as long as you can. and stay safe
Here is another radar site from Martinique.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
This one needs no password.

and please oh please don't let storm2k crash. We need it now. It is taking me a long long time to access it.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm sorry I was excluding the first 9 in the pressure.

[mf_dolphin]

We had a slight bump but we're monitoring the server and will react as quickly as possible if something happens.

[SouthFloridawx]

Might be getting a VDM...

not obs at 57

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[mgpetre]

At what point will the hurricane hunters be able to start flying this thing?

[Extremecane]

HWRF 896mb and furthur north!



GFDL

916MB middle of gulf

[Furious George]

NEW GFDL landfall would be a Rita hit all over again (extrapolated 311 heading to coast at 90.5 and 26.2 hits near TX/LA boarder). Talk about a disaster if that unfolded.

[BigD]

I drew a straight line using the three last coordinates they give and the line goes into Galveston Bay.

Pretty much right through the oil rigs as a Cat3-Cat4 correct?

[vacanechaser]

At what point will the hurricane hunters be able to start flying this thing?

they are in there now... should get a vortex message soon...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Sabanic]

12 GFDL south of New Orleans moving WNW towards SE Texas. Shifted to the left from the 6Z guidance. More in line with the consensus. Going to be interesting to see how the 00Z models change with the synoptic data coming in.

Texas bound ?? Maybe, maybe not . . .

I drew a straight line using the three last coordinates they give and the line goes into Galveston Bay.

I know, and I wasn't flaming if it came across that way. I was just saying that I still do not believe this far out (1 wk roughly) that we have seen the last of the track changes. East or West.

[msbee]

thanks so much
you guys at storm2k are the greatest!

[Aric Dunn]

A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE

[Scorpion]

WRF says 167 kt winds

[EyELeSs1]

Minimum central pressure estimated by the Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft was 970 mb...28.64 inches.

[SouthFloridawx]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN IS JUST NOW CROSSING 55W INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. MAX WINDS FROM THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY
ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT...ALTHOUGH AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY FLYING INTO THE STORM AND WILL GIVE
US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD IN A
BIT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM 12N
TO 17N LOOKS GOOD...BUT THIS COULD BE TWEAKED IF RECON FINDS A
LARGER STORM. AS FAR AS THE SEAS...BUOY 41040 JUST E OF THE AREA
RECORDED A MAXIMUM SEAS OF 27 FT AND MAXIMUM 1-MIN WINDS OF 45
KT AS DEAN PASSED ABOUT 60 NM TO THE S. ALL WAVE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NWW3...FNMOC...UKMET WAVE...AND EVEN
THE NWW3 GFDL VERSION WERE ALL ABOUT 7-8 FT TOO LOW WITH THE
MAXIMUM SEAS. HOWEVER...THE NEW MULTI-GRID VERSION OF THE NWW3
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 26 FT AT THAT BUOY WHEN IT REPORTED 25 FT AT
1200 UTC...SO IT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST PERFORMER. BASED ON THIS
GUIDANCE...HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE NEAR 33 FT NEAR GUADELOUPE AND
DOMINICA FRI MORNING AS DEAN PASSES BY. FOR THE E
CARIBBEAN...HURRICANE WARNING WAS ISSUED N OF 13N BECAUSE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE/HURRICANE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES.
MAXIMUM SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER THE
OPEN ATLC SINCE THE ISLANDS WILL BLOCK THE EASTERLY FETCH OF
SWELLS WHICH HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THE STORM. STILL...SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 27 FT OVER THE N PART OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH EARLY TUE BUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFIC WIND RADII/SEAS.

[Brent]

Defintely AT LEAST 90 mph, It should be a Cat 2 by 5 once recon gets to the NE quad.

[miamicanes177]

Scary! Probably the worst possible scenario for SE Texas and SW Louisiana (assuming it doesn't turn north or west after the last given GFDL point).

Thanks for posting that image. That is the worst case scenario track because it splits between cuba and the yucatan. If it took that track it might make a run for Wilma.

[Scorpion]

[brunota2003]

Defintely AT LEAST 90 mph, It should be a Cat 2 by 5 once recon gets to the NE quad.

You mean NW Quad? The RFQ is the NW Quad