CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

holy crap!

[Brent]

Worst case scenario!

and this is the 2nd run in a row with the GFDL further right.

[Stormcenter]

I'm still saying it's way too early to call. Now come Sunday if we see the same
track then I will be VERY worried.

[BeaumontHorn]

this would suck for Beaumont area, personally i've been back and forth Beaumont to Dallas last 3 weeks, so if it were to hold true at least I know I have a prepaid hotel room provided the family can make it up there. but i also agree this wont be the first nor last time the track shifts. but at the rate it is moving they would start going thru evac procedures I'm guessing late Monday/early Tuesday??

Maybe I'm going cart before the horse here, but my initial concern isnt where landfall is but the evacuation hell that is SE Texas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

holy crap!

that is straight from a fiction movie right there...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like Katrina II.
Hope and Pray that this does not verify!

[Extremeweatherguy]

:eek:

Worst case scenario!

and this is the 2nd run in a row with the GFDL further right.

It is a bit left of 06z GFDL run, but I do agree that this overall trend is alarming. If this storm misses the Yucatan, then this thing might explode!

[Steve]

I don't think it can make a run for Wilma. That was a different part of the season and the synoptics for a hooking storm off to the NE or ENE aren't really there that far south. It's almost like a Rita scenario, but if this verifies and if it aligns with Sepat, it won't be hooking NNW or N at landfall, it would be more bending back - pushed by the high pressure. This weekend just got very interesting.

here's the latest image from there:



Houston got a problem maybe?

Steve

[Sanibel]

Like Katrina, Dean isn't showing an eye even though it is going through category 2. That is very likely the sign of a storm going for the upper end in intensity.

We should hear some reports from Martinique. Dean appears to be bee-lining for it while intensifying...

Dean really filling-out on west side. (Boom)

[Bluefrog]

Holy Crap is mild compared to what I just said outloud. Y'all are starting to freak me out.

[vaffie]

Wow, that's a scary-looking Category 5 storm. 913 mb! I remember the GFDL handled Rita and katrina's pressure falls quite well. And see how the blue area of tropical storm force winds goes all the way into New Orleans, even though the model has it missing it by hundreds of miles.

[SouthFloridawx]

holy crap!

that is straight from a fiction movie right there...

lol...

[windstorm99]

Seems like a trend here with the models moving back to the right?

[WxGuy1]

No need to be alarmist yet. This is just one run out of dozens (different models, different times) -- the GFDL has also shown a weak hurricane in a few days (a couple of runs ago, IIRC). Yes, the latest runs SHOULD be more accurate, but you need to wait until we see 2-3-4 consecutive model runs showing that solution before you should put much confidence in it. I think all we should say at this time is that Dean will likely be near western Cuba and/or the Yucatan in a few days. Anything beyond that is a little too speculative for me. Dean could run into Honduras, or it could cross Cuba and enter the Gulf -- we just don't know. Sticking with the consensus is the most prudent course of action at this time.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Seems like a trend here with the models moving back to the right?

Trend only implies someone in the GOM is in big trouble...But its still early..

[Blown Away]

This board is moving to fast! How about someone posting a current map w/ the most recent model runs, so people can see exactly what everybody is panicing about.

[superdeluxe]

Why is this worst case sceniro? I don't understand?

[HURAKAN]

MAGNIFICENT!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

This board is moving to fast! How about someone posting a current map w/ the most recent model runs, so people can see exactly what everybody is panicing about.

[wxfollower]

No need to be alarmist yet. This is just one run out of dozens (different models, different times) -- the GFDL has also shown a weak hurricane in a few days (a couple of runs ago, IIRC). Yes, the latest runs SHOULD be more accurate, but you need to wait until we see 2-3-4 consecutive model runs showing that solution before you should put much confidence in it. I think all we should say at this time is that Dean will likely be near western Cuba and/or the Yucatan in a few days. Anything beyond that is a little too speculative for me. Dean could run into Honduras, or it could cross Cuba and enter the Gulf -- we just don't know. Sticking with the consensus is the most prudent course of action at this time.

yeah what the met said..