CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

MALIGNLY STRONG.

[oyster_reef]

Yes,lets take a break from the 12z runs and focus tonight on the 00z guidance that will have the data ingested from the gulfstream jet.

when will these runs start coming in?
very curious how they will look!

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it just me or dose anyone else here seem to think that the models shifts ever so slightly to the north alittle bit on every model run towards the end of the 5 day forecast??

Its possible....I was thinking the same thing earlier.

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

[Sanibel]

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

Please. No chance for Florida on this solid model/ridge consensus.

Wobble west. Flatter west veer. Should correct back into forecast track. Almost guarantees strong side for Martinique.

[SouthFloridawx]

334
UZNT13 KNHC 161827
XXAA 66187 99137 70553 04235 99992 26204 15069 00574 ///// /////
92612 21800 17076 85346 18200 17077 70991 08210 19569 88999 77999
31313 09608 81735
61616 AF304 0104A DEAN OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1380N05533W 1739 MBL WND 17075 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17575 991730 WL150 16572 080 =
XXBB 66188 99137 70553 04235 00992 26204 11850 18200 22760 14000
33697 08010
21212 00992 15069 11986 16069 22973 17079 33957 17575 44850 17077
55697 19569
31313 09608 81735
61616 AF304 0104A DEAN OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1380N05533W 1739 MBL WND 17075 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17575 991730 WL150 16572 080 =

[mempho]

is it just me or dose anyone else here seem to think that the models shifts ever so slightly to the north alittle bit on every model run towards the end of the 5 day forecast??

The remnants of Erin are beating back the ridge. You can see clearly why the GFDL may end up being a leader rather than an "outlier". That said, Erin better bring it if she's gonna overcome this ridge.

[cycloneye]

Yes,lets take a break from the 12z runs and focus tonight on the 00z guidance that will have the data ingested from the gulfstream jet.

when will these runs start coming in?
very curious how they will look!

From 11:30 PM EDT.

[superdeluxe]

Thanks everyone

[mempho]

Wobble west. Flatter west veer. Should correct back into forecast track. Almost guarantees strong side for Martinique.

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

Please. No chance for Florida on this solid model/ridge consensus.

Agreed...I think Louisiana is a possibility though.

[SouthFloridawx]

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: DEAN OB 08 (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number:
Time: 8700Z
Latitude: 3.7°N
Longitude: 55.3°W
Location: 285 mi E of Bridgetown, Barbados
Surface: 992 mb; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 78°F; SSE (150°) @ 79 mph
1000mb height: Unavailable
925mb height: 2008 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 71°F; S (170°) @ 88 mph
850mb height: 4416 ft; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 65°F; S (170°) @ 89 mph
700mb height: 9813 ft; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 45°F; SSW (195°) @ 79 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
EYEWALL 135 SPL 1380N05533W 1739 MBL WND 17075 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17575 991730 WL150 16572 080 =

992mb winds: SSE (150°) @ 79 mph
986mb winds: SSE (160°) @ 79 mph
973mb winds: S (170°) @ 91 mph
957mb winds: S (175°) @ 86 mph
850mb winds: S (170°) @ 89 mph
697mb winds: SSW (195°) @ 79 mph
#VALUE!

[k4sdi]

Looks like Katrina II.

Umm, no, this would make Katrina look like a fart in the wind.

[weatherguru18]

Houston could have even a bigger problem with Dean...

Today Houston is flooded out by the feeder bands of Erin. For instance, the Texas Medical Center (the largest medical complex in the world) recieved 6" of rain in about an hour's time. The entire city is recieveing very heavy rain. With this rain, the soil will be made all the softer (on top of the two months of rain we had in June and July) and the towering pines that offer shade in the summer could be the very thing that becomes an enemy...all it takes is a 70mph wind to snap them and probably less with a wet ground. Oh Dean...be nice to us.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Wobble west. Flatter west veer. Should correct back into forecast track. Almost guarantees strong side for Martinique.

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

Please. No chance for Florida on this solid model/ridge consensus.

thats why i said a slight chance because thens can change very very fast and im not saying florida is going to get hit just saying a slight chance it could thats all im say just to clearify myself any???

[cycloneye]

Derek,how do you see the winds added the speed of motion when it moves thru or near Martinique.

[Stratosphere747]

Yes,lets take a break from the 12z runs and focus tonight on the 00z guidance that will have the data ingested from the gulfstream jet.

I don't think they will change much...previous storms have proven that..

That could not be a more incorrect statement. It's not a given that the track will be altered, but it has trended a significant amount on the long range in the past.

[brunota2003]

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

Please. No chance for Florida on this solid model/ridge consensus.

Wobble west. Flatter west veer. Should correct back into forecast track. Almost guarantees strong side for Martinique.

Never say never in the weather world. Things happen and stuff changes. Remember Ernesto last year? "He'll never hit Florida."

[Stormcenter]

Why do I feel like the luck of Texas is about to run out
and Erin was a mini preview?
The media coverage on this will be amazing next
week if it actually does get as strong as predicted by
the models.

[tronbunny]

I know I may be over-sensitive here...but adjectives like "great" "improving" and "awesome" are a little hard for those of us in the islands to stomach at the moment, regardless of the power and intensity and perfection of a storm moving into a high mode. Can the thrill of watching this be couched in a bit more thoughtful terms? And we will do the same for CONUS when it applies (though, I can't think of any of the island posters who use these terms, for obvious, or maybe not so obvious reasons).

Dear friend,
I hope you and your neighbors are preparing to protect yourselves from the awesome power of these storms.
These adjectives are appropriate to express the deep respect and awe we have for nature's power.
The Earth's geological activity should humble us all. we, mere mortals, should appreciate the forces that give and take life, for without such processes, we would not exist.

So please, see what beauty and goodness you can, and plan/prepare to take care of yourself in the case that you should have to experience it, first hand.

[Sanibel]

Remember Ernesto last year? "He'll never hit Florida."

While generally true, Ernesto didn't have a rock solid ridge guiding him like we see here.

[superdeluxe]

Looks like Katrina II.

Umm, no, this would make Katrina look like a fart in the wind.

Why is that?