CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KFDM Meteorologist]

When one of you guys get the new EURO please post. Thanks.I get it late for some reason at work.

[windstorm99]

No signs of the ULL moving...And until then the Atlantic high is not going to move west.

[cheezyWXguy]

I would think the HWRF is over doing things a bit cause if not we are talking about a storm just about as strong as wilma at her peak.

One model is forecasting 167kts,which would translate 175-180mph.I don't know if this is the one

167kts is between 190 and 195mph...i dont think thats going to verify

[cycloneye]

No signs of the ULL moving...And until then the Atlantic high is not going to move west.

A link of water vapor please.

[SouthFloridawx]

No signs of the ULL moving...And until then the Atlantic high is not going to move west.

A link of water vapor please.

I posted a link on the prior page.

[artist]

all I have is the raw data- sorry

695
URNT15 KNHC 161743
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 18 20070816
173600 1343N 05519W 6967 03052 9950 +081 +070 195064 066 056 032 03
173630 1342N 05518W 6970 03056 9951 +090 +070 194059 060 051 041 03
173700 1340N 05517W 6967 03062 9955 +089 +070 196055 057 048 011 00
173730 1339N 05517W 6964 03069 9958 +090 +070 196051 052 045 026 03
173800 1338N 05516W 6967 03067 9955 +093 +070 196049 049 042 018 00
173830 1337N 05515W 6968 03072 9963 +089 +070 199048 049 040 008 00
173900 1336N 05513W 6967 03074 9967 +090 +070 201047 047 039 008 00
173930 1334N 05512W 6963 03080 9971 +087 +070 199044 045 039 007 00
174000 1333N 05511W 6972 03075 9971 +091 +070 198041 042 040 007 00
174030 1332N 05510W 6971 03074 9967 +094 +070 192039 040 040 007 00
174100 1331N 05509W 6966 03081 9970 +092 +070 193038 038 040 007 00
174130 1330N 05508W 6968 03079 9972 +092 +070 192038 038 039 007 00
174200 1329N 05507W 6968 03083 9979 +089 +070 192038 039 037 007 00
174230 1328N 05505W 6967 03085 9980 +088 +070 193039 040 036 007 00
174300 1327N 05504W 6964 03090 9983 +086 +070 193040 041 035 007 00
174330 1325N 05503W 6966 03089 9988 +084 +070 190041 041 036 006 00
174400 1324N 05502W 6969 03086 9990 +085 +070 190042 043 036 007 00
174430 1323N 05501W 6964 03093 9991 +085 +070 193043 043 037 007 00
174500 1322N 05500W 6964 03095 9990 +086 +070 196044 044 035 007 00
174530 1321N 05459W 6968 03091 9994 +084 +070 194044 046 042 026 00
$$

[windstorm99]

I would think the HWRF is over doing things a bit cause if not we are talking about a storm just about as strong as wilma at her peak.

One model is forecasting 167kts,which would translate 175-180mph.I don't know if this is the one

167kts is between 190 and 195mph...i dont think thats going to verify

Based on what....The heat content content in the western caribbean is at greater levels then 2005.Conditions look great through the caribbean if you ask me.

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the 12z EURO?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone has the 12z EURO?

330 EST right?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is going to be horrifying to watch.
My prayers are with everyone who may be impacted by the storm.

I mean, this is just horrible.
Not trying to overhype, but that is just the truth.
We've got a very bad situation....

[TampaFl]

Anyone has the 12z EURO?

Just checked, still not in yet.


Robert

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[tracyswfla]

This is going to be horrifying to watch.
My prayers are with everyone who may be impacted by the storm.

I mean, this is just horrible.
Not trying to overhype, but that is just the truth.
We've got a very bad situation....

I agree. It's very very bad.

[Sanibel]

The telling feature is the ULL plunging with the Atlantic ridge above Dean. That should keep Dean low enough to undershoot the gap between ridges seen in the western ULL. I'm thinking we might see Dean bump NW in the Caribbean but then be flat-tracked west again like what the Atlantic ridge did to Dean yesterday.

[cyclonic chronic]

2005 was the gulf's year, intensity and track wise. could this be the same for the caribbean this year? i mean are there simalarities between the gulf in 05 and the caribbean this year?

[PTrackerLA]

This is going to be horrifying to watch.
My prayers are with everyone who may be impacted by the storm.

I mean, this is just horrible.
Not trying to overhype, but that is just the truth.
We've got a very bad situation....

All we can do is pray for the islands and hope for the best further down the road. But the way thinks are looking right now I have a VERY bad feeling.

[Steve]

>>No signs of the ULL moving...And until then the Atlantic high is not going to move west.

There won't be signs of it moving west. It still has to split and then close off. This wasn't progged to start until tomorrow night. I had my calculation based off the GFS 500 earlier this morning (+/- 9 central).

steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why do I feel like the luck of Texas is about to run out
and Erin was a mini preview?
The media coverage on this will be amazing next
week if it actually does get as strong as predicted by
the models.

agreed. The media coverage already today for Erin's flooding has been nonstop for 3-4 hours. I can't image what would happen if Dean came this way. I would expect more 24-hour coverage 2-3 days in advance like we had during Rita.

[windstorm99]

Here is a very interesting read i found from another pro-met on another forum.

Lots of talk on the evolution of the high, the Cut off low, and other features that may affect Dean. In looking at the current models, I also share concern that the models may be making the overall atmosheric dynamics too straight forward. With respect to the GFDL, this is one the most reliable hurricane forecasting models and this model always gets very heavy weigh in on forcast tracks. With that said, I think last nights GFDL was weakening Dean during the forecast period as it was seeing a system that would head into the Cutoff low and experience shear. As for todays model runs so far, the GFDL seems to have recognized that Dean is more formidable than the weaker tropical counterparts. As a result, the GFDL now sees an interaction with the cutoff low that moves it NWward, versus lasts nights representation that moved Dean under the cutoff and into a sheared environment.

Now, back to the Upper Low, the high pressure ridge and possible steering consequences. I'm gonna dive into the Water Vapor here, and I'donly like to base my interpertations on how the steering flow may change over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow, I will likely post a similar post looking at the next 24 hour period.

The cutoff low does not appear to be weakening, it is moving to the west very slowly,but probably not as fast as one would expect based on the models...This could be an implication, since Dean is making some headway on the cutoff low.
- There is indeed a trough affiliated with the cutoff low, and the trough does extend pretty far into the Carribean.
- True, the Ridge of High Pressure is moving westward and placing some pressure on the southern extent of the Cut-off low/trough. However, I am somewhat concerned about the cutoff low that is also moving westward and centered around around 30N, 46W. The reason for concern is that the interaction of the Bahama's low and this low may change the orientation of the ridge...instead of the ridge being oriented E-W as forcasts indicate, the ridge may become oriented in a N-S direction. This may hinder the westward progress of the Bahama's low in the coming day or so. It may also hinder the continued westward advancement of the ridge that the models want to depict.
- Finally, I notice a weak (albiet Small) upper level low trying to form ahead of Dean along the South American Coast. (Around 10N and 62.5W). This would have little impact on Dean from a shearing prospective...But as this kink in the upper level winds continues to prog westward, it will be curious to see if this links up with the Bahama's Cutoff Low and increases the southerly flow.

- AT this point, the jet stream looks fairly zonal...no real troughs or ridges...so nothing to really move the high over the Missippi Valley/Georgia area too much (considering the ULL over the Bahama's). However, in looking downstream, the ridge over the Miss. Valley/GA extends into the Northern Gulf and western Gulf States. So even though the Atlantic Ridge is pushing on the Baham's Low from the east, the High over the Southeast is pushing on the Cutoff low from the west. Talk about mother nature's power play...

In sum, I do not expect the upper level low over the Bahama's to make as much westward progess as was expected during the next 24 hours and the bottom line is this...Dean is making faster forward progress to the west than the Baham's low. Dean and it's anticipated 200MB ridge will push back on the ULL when they get a little closer to one another, but if the Upper Low does not fade away in the next 72 hours, I would not be surprised to see the models indact a more northerly route with time. That Gulfstream Jet Data is gonna be very important to the upcoming forecasts. Mean time...In another 24 hours...it will be interesting to look again and post on what is expected through Saturday...

[Stormcenter]

This is going to be horrifying to watch.
My prayers are with everyone who may be impacted by the storm.

I mean, this is just horrible.
Not trying to overhype, but that is just the truth.
We've got a very bad situation....

I agree. It's very very bad.

I still say it's way too early to call. IMO