CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 07 Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 2000Z
Latitude: 22°N
Longitude: 56°W
Location: 565 mi NE of Roseau, Dominica
Surface: 1018 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 74°F; E (85°) @ 24 mph
1000mb height: 512 ft; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 73°F; E (85°) @ 26 mph
925mb height: 2756 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; E (85°) @ 25 mph
850mb height: 5148 ft; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 62°F; ENE (75°) @ 24 mph
700mb height: 10545 ft; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 33°F; NNE (30°) @ 8 mph
500mb height: 19423 ft; Temp: 21°F; Dewpt: -11°F; ENE (60°) @ 24 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 1°F; Dewpt: -59°F; ENE (70°) @ 18 mph
300mb height: 31890 ft; Temp: -28°F; Dewpt: -66°F; ENE (70°) @ 13 mph
250mb height: 35991 ft; Temp: -47°F; Dewpt: -81°F; ENE (75°) @ 17 mph
200mb height: 40814 ft; Temp: -63°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; W (260°) @ 16 mph
SPL 2201N05605W 1948 MBL WND 08522 AEV 00000 DLM WND 06011
017169 WL150 08022 079 =

1018mb winds: E (85°) @ 24 mph
927mb winds: E (85°) @ 26 mph
902mb winds: E (90°) @ 21 mph
893mb winds: E (95°) @ 24 mph
877mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 18 mph
868mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 16 mph
856mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 26 mph
850mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 24 mph
835mb winds: E (85°) @ 14 mph
824mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 16 mph
790mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 12 mph
763mb winds: NNE (30°) @ 12 mph
664mb winds: NNE (25°) @ 7 mph
633mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 14 mph
601mb winds: NE (45°) @ 17 mph
587mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 17 mph
521mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 21 mph
471mb winds: NE (50°) @ 30 mph
404mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 20 mph
386mb winds: NE (45°) @ 14 mph
361mb winds: NE (55°) @ 13 mph
341mb winds: NE (35°) @ 6 mph
302mb winds: ENE (60°) @ 12 mph
293mb winds: E (90°) @ 15 mph
278mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 15 mph
257mb winds: E (85°) @ 22 mph
230mb winds: NNE (15°) @ 12 mph
224mb winds: N (350°) @ 5 mph
199mb winds: WSW (255°) @ 15 mph
176mb winds: WNW (300°) @ 10 mph
172mb winds: NW (325°) @ 13 mph
162mb winds: N (355°) @ 30 mph

[KFDM Meteorologist]

4:30 Central for 18Z GFS and then 10:30 PM central for 0z GFS. oZ Euro will be at 2:30 AM Central.

[windstorm99]

From the Miami afternoon discussion...Details on the ULL that's currently east of Florida...

"The upper level low will then move through the County Warning Area on Saturday and
into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night into Sunday.

[HUC]

Radar Martinica

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/radar/m ... 00_ppz.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

>>Let me correct: EURO hits MEXICO, that's why several on here don't believe it. If it's not a US strike, then some on here get depressed.

I see what you're saying. Most of us are pretty OCD with the weather if not outright bipolar. I'm pretty stable in real life and like most of you, I don't usually wake up for no apparent reason at 3 in the morning to check weather forecast models. But when there is live action, it's a big rush of excitment. Maybe some people feel let down when they miss out or when their excitement ends. I'll tell you when I'm operating in that mode or what I'm basing reliance or discardance of a model on. If I'm homering something, I will come out and say it. That is not the case with the ECMWF. Like I told you above, it often runs systems too far south across the Caribbean or Gulf. So knowing that, we have to take that into consideration. It's not going to disappoint me if I don't get any action from Dean. I promise you that. We haven't even hit the statistical up-ramp of the season yet (generally starts on 8/20). There will be several more storms to track between now and late October.

Steve

Hasn't even started yet for FL or the east Coast. Just wait!

[Flyinman]

Assuming Dean enters the Gulf, what kind of time frame are we looking it to make landfall??

[baitism]

Assuming Dean enters the Gulf, what kind of time frame are we looking it to make landfall??

Thursday maybe. Then again, I can't see it maintaining this speed the whole run...

[RL3AO]

Assuming Dean enters the Gulf, what kind of time frame are we looking it to make landfall??

Why assume? And if it did enter the Gulf, you are looking at 7-8 days.

[Jagno]

hey abajan loving the updates. Also i hope u don't mind other ppl in the islands posting their obs in here as well. I think this may be a good idea to post island wide obs in here? What you think?

I don't really have a problem with that. Although my original idea was that each island could have it's own thread in case things got really busy.

Cheers.

Understandable ofcourse. I will only post if anything interesting happens and I havn't seen many of the southern islanders on this board so not sure how often they will be posting.

Prayers and thoughts are with all of you. Please be safe.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar Martinica

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/radar/m ... 00_ppz.gif

still need a password..
you need to save them then post it with imageshack or something

[Stormcenter]

Let me correct: EURO hits MEXICO, that's why several on here don't believe it. If it's not a US strike, then some on here get depressed.

Unfortunately sometimes that is the case on this board.

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 08 Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 2000Z
Latitude: 22.8°N
Longitude: 55°W
Location: 649 mi NE of Roseau, Dominica
Surface: 1019 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 75°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1000mb height: 541 ft; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 73°F; ENE (70°) @ 21 mph
925mb height: 2779 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 67°F; E (85°) @ 20 mph
850mb height: 5167 ft; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 49°F; E (80°) @ 17 mph
700mb height: 10551 ft; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 26°F; NNW (340°) @ 12 mph
500mb height: 19455 ft; Temp: 21°F; Dewpt: 1°F; ENE (60°) @ 17 mph
400mb height: 25066 ft; Temp: 2°F; Dewpt: -34°F; ENE (65°) @ 14 mph
300mb height: 31923 ft; Temp: -29°F; Dewpt: -47°F; E (80°) @ 9 mph
250mb height: 36024 ft; Temp: -48°F; Dewpt: -64°F; ENE (70°) @ 24 mph
200mb height: 40814 ft; Temp: -66°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; NW (305°) @ 14 mph
SPL 2279N05508W 1959 LST WND 033 MBL WND 07019 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 05512 015181 WL150 07518 107 =

1019mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1015mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 21 mph
905mb winds: E (85°) @ 17 mph
868mb winds: E (80°) @ 21 mph
850mb winds: E (80°) @ 17 mph
827mb winds: E (80°) @ 16 mph
793mb winds: NNE (20°) @ 14 mph
729mb winds: NNW (330°) @ 13 mph
702mb winds: NNW (335°) @ 12 mph
659mb winds: NE (45°) @ 9 mph
627mb winds: NE (35°) @ 12 mph
618mb winds: NE (50°) @ 12 mph
576mb winds: NE (40°) @ 17 mph
488mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 18 mph
456mb winds: NE (45°) @ 24 mph
426mb winds: NE (50°) @ 28 mph
402mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 15 mph
366mb winds: NE (50°) @ 8 mph
354mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 13 mph
332mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 16 mph
251mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 24 mph
241mb winds: E (80°) @ 21 mph
233mb winds: ENE (60°) @ 20 mph
226mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 12 mph
218mb winds: NNE (15°) @ 3 mph
206mb winds: NW (310°) @ 12 mph
202mb winds: NW (305°) @ 13 mph
189mb winds: NNW (340°) @ 15 mph
181mb winds: NNW (330°) @ 16 mph
162mb winds: N (350°) @ 26 mph

[Stratosphere747]

No radar, but great site for some quick obs.

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/puert ... ?icao=TFFF

[Aric Dunn]

well here is a little bit of what is to come.. im missing some images.. but it will normally be 9 images

so as i get more i make more

[Flyinman]

Well I think we all know why we assume. I just want to make sure my timing for hotel reservations is good and adjust them as necessary. They were made for the end of next week just in case.

[Derek Ortt]

should pass near or over Martinique between 4-6 a.m. tomorrow

[crazycajuncane]

Keep safe! We look foward to hearing your reports.

[Aric Dunn]

whoa did it just pass through the EYE







24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.0 kts
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.48 in
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.25 in ( Falling Rapidly )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.6 °F
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F

[Derek Ortt]

this will likely be in the GOM by next Tuesday and making final landfall Wednesday or Thursday

[Aric Dunn]

yeah looks like the buoy is in the eye.. what are the odds