CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jasons2k]

Anyone still want to say 2007 will be like 2006??

[EyELeSs1]

this will likely be in the GOM by next Tuesday and making final landfall Wednesday or Thursday

Derek to you mind commenting on current intensity and impact towards the southern islands and has recon helped you in anyway?

[sevenleft]

this will likely be in the GOM by next Tuesday and making final landfall Wednesday or Thursday

There is a pretty big difference between hitting the Yucatan and then emerging into the GOM and taking the channel...

[cyclonic chronic]

whoa did it just pass through the EYE







24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.0 kts
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.48 in
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.25 in ( Falling Rapidly )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.6 °F
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F

looks like it. this bouy was right in the path. thats awesome!! that bouy has to be gettin beat the hell up!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

yeah looks like the buoy is in the eye.. what are the odds

Wow... Aric make sure you post about this. Thanks man.

[sevenleft]

whoa did it just pass through the EYE







24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.0 kts
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.48 in
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.25 in ( Falling Rapidly )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.6 °F
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F

Not really sure. It's lat would place it north of the eye..more than likely in or north of the northern eyewall. Wind sensor may have failed. Could be in the eye tho....pretty close to where it should be. We'll know in a bit.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Has anyone seen the 18Z GFDL? I don't have it yet but i got an e-mail from someone saying it was back south again.

[Scorpion]

How can the 18Z GFDL be out if the 18Z GFS hasnt even run?

[JPmia]

this will likely be in the GOM by next Tuesday and making final landfall Wednesday or Thursday

Derek, would you like to throw us a bone on that comment? Inquiring minds would like to know location of landfall if you know the time.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah looks like the buoy is in the eye.. what are the odds

Wow... Aric make sure you post about this. Thanks man.

i did previous page

[SouthFloridawx]

Has anyone seen the 18Z GFDL? I don't have it yet but i got an e-mail from someone saying it was back south again.

No they were playing tricks on you...

Last GFDL

456
WHXX04 KWBC 161730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

H[list=]OUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 53.3 275./21.0
6 13.9 55.3 280./20.0
12 14.3 57.3 282./19.4
18 14.5 59.6 277./22.0
24 14.7 61.8 273./21.1
30 15.1 63.8 283./20.8
36 15.2 65.8 271./18.3
42 15.4 67.5 277./17.2
48 15.8 69.3 283./17.3
54 16.2 71.1 281./17.7
60 16.6 72.9 282./18.0
66 17.0 74.7 283./17.3
72 17.6 76.5 289./18.3
78 18.2 78.5 287./19.8
84 18.8 80.1 289./16.2
90 19.5 81.8 292./17.5
96 20.4 83.3 301./17.5
102 21.4 84.8 304./17.3
108 22.6 86.2 311./17.4
114 23.8 87.7 307./17.8
120 25.0 89.1 312./17.8
126 26.2 90.5 311./17.4[/list]

[drezee]

whoa did it just pass through the EYE







24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.0 kts
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.48 in
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.25 in ( Falling Rapidly )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.6 °F
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F

Not really sure. It's lat would place it north of the eye..more than likely in or north of the northern eyewall. Wind sensor may have failed. Could be in the eye tho....pretty close to where it should be. We'll know in a bit.

pressure is too high

[SouthFloridawx]

yeah looks like the buoy is in the eye.. what are the odds

Wow... Aric make sure you post about this. Thanks man.

i did previous page

I meant, keep us updated... man, I am really sucking at saying what my brain is thinking today.
Aric are you in Team Speak?

[Steve]

>>Who here buys the GFDL?

Why would I buy it when I can get it for free?



Steve

[hurricanetrack]

That would be interesting- a pre-gfs gfdl. Wondering who that someone is and where they find a pre-gfs gfdl.

[ronjon]

NWS Key West AFD. They must have looked at the GFDL too.

.EXTENDED...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS REVEALS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIGRATE FURTHER WESTWARD...AS THE MASSIVE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MODELS PROPERLY HANDLING THIS EXITING
TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF HURRICANE DEAN...THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DEAN. REGARDLESS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND HURRICANE DEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY. BECAUSE OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES UNTIL FORECAST CERTAINTY INCREASES.

[Aric Dunn]

whoa did it just pass through the EYE







24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.0 kts
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.48 in
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.25 in ( Falling Rapidly )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.6 °F
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F

Not really sure. It's lat would place it north of the eye..more than likely in or north of the northern eyewall. Wind sensor may have failed. Could be in the eye tho....pretty close to where it should be. We'll know in a bit.

pressure is too high

when that was taken .. it could have just started to really fall .. since its not real time we wont ever know.. but with a pressure drop that steep it can only be the center..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That's what i thought! Thanks

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 09 Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 2000Z
Latitude: 21°N
Longitude: 55°W
Location: 560 mi NE of Roseau, Dominica
Surface: 1017 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 75°F; E (90°) @ 21 mph
1000mb height: 492 ft; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 74°F; E (90°) @ 22 mph
925mb height: 2736 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 64°F; E (95°) @ 30 mph
850mb height: 5128 ft; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 59°F; E (80°) @ 26 mph
700mb height: 10528 ft; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 32°F; NE (50°) @ 16 mph
500mb height: 19390 ft; Temp: 22°F; Dewpt: -18°F; NE (55°) @ 17 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 3°F; Dewpt: -48°F; NE (40°) @ 8 mph
300mb height: 31890 ft; Temp: -28°F; Dewpt: -64°F; ENE (75°) @ 13 mph
250mb height: 35991 ft; Temp: -43°F; Dewpt: -79°F; NNW (330°) @ 13 mph
200mb height: 40846 ft; Temp: -62°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; WSW (240°) @ 24 mph
SPL 2097N05507W 2013 MBL WND 09020 AEV 00000 DLM WND 06508
016169 WL150 09018 084 =

1017mb winds: E (90°) @ 21 mph
925mb winds: E (95°) @ 30 mph
865mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 26 mph
850mb winds: E (80°) @ 26 mph
831mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 16 mph
806mb winds: E (80°) @ 15 mph
785mb winds: ENE (60°) @ 14 mph
753mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 12 mph
674mb winds: NE (45°) @ 16 mph
638mb winds: ENE (60°) @ 14 mph
620mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 15 mph
582mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 20 mph
540mb winds: NE (40°) @ 16 mph
520mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 14 mph
472mb winds: NE (45°) @ 12 mph
419mb winds: WNW (290°) @ 3 mph
385mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 12 mph
339mb winds: NE (35°) @ 12 mph
300mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 13 mph
252mb winds: NNW (335°) @ 14 mph
236mb winds: NW (305°) @ 8 mph
221mb winds: WNW (285°) @ 14 mph
209mb winds: WSW (240°) @ 18 mph
192mb winds: SW (235°) @ 28 mph
172mb winds: W (260°) @ 20 mph
162mb winds: SSW (200°) @ 13 mph

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE