CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

That would be interesting- a pre-gfs gfdl. Wondering who that someone is and where they find a pre-gfs gfdl.

When you find out, tell em to come talk to me.

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 15SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 56.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS
ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Scorpion]

979 mb.. I wonder why its weakening

[Steve]

>>I mean who thinks that could happen.

Oh.

I think it's plausible, but I wouldn't say it was likely. It has presented one of many scenarios in its 06z and 12z runs that could end up verifying. But it's really too early to tell if there will be a substantial or sufficient weakness in order for Dean to behave as it has forecasted him to do. It's just too far out right now IMHO.

Steve

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow 97.75 mph

[vaffie]

I made out a timeframe for my family in case a category 5 were to hit Houston directly. I used extrapolations from the National Hurricane Center's guidance on speed, position, and intensity. It is consistent with the speed and timing that the GFDL, WRF and GFS models are saying too. It is for Houston, but it should be roughly about the same for any other city in the western Gulf. Remember--this is just a worst case scenario for my area to help us think about what we might have to do.

Today--Houston, Galveston officials meet to discuss hurricane preparations and also regarding tonight's possible flood event, oil companies create plan for possible evacuations.
Friday night--Houston enters the 5 day National Hurricane Center cone of guidance (the big bullet-shaped blob).
Saturday morning--NHC's cone now has SE Texas landfall in it's 5 day cone of guidance. Storm currently south of Puerto Rico--Category 2.
...
Strengthens to Category 3.
Sunday afternoon--Galveston recommends people to plan for possible evacuation. Some start leaving Sunday night. Category 3 Storm has passed over or next to Jamaica causing great destruction. Western Gulf of Mexico Offshore oil platforms being evacuated.
Monday morning--Galveston issues evacuation orders.
Monday afternoon--South Houston, Pasadena, League City, etc. issue evacuation orders. Category 4-5 storm devastates Cozumel/Cancun, Mexico, enters Gulf.
Tuesday morning--Evacuation routes made unidirectional. Category 5 in central Gulf of Mexico, becoming a bigger, broader storm, possibly even reaching record-breaking strength, racing to the northwest. Hurricane Watch issued for our area.
Tuesday afternoon--Rest of the city begins evacuation. Squall lines begin to go through the city every 5 hours.
Tuesday night--Hurricane Warning issued. Winds at 25 mph.
Wednesday midday--Tropical storm force winds begin (40-74 mph). Large parts of city lose power. By afternoon, the whole city has lost power.
Wednesday night--30 foot storm surge washes over Galveston, south Houston and enters part of the 610 loop. Eye makes landfall around midnight.
Thursday late morning--winds go below hurricane strength.
Thursday night--winds go below tropical storm strength.

[HarlequinBoy]

Winds are up to 100 mph, per 5 PM adv.

[jhamps10]

new advisory....
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[Derek Ortt]

may need a TS warning tomorrow morning for Puerto and the Virgin Islands

[oyster_reef]

5pm Cat 2 looks to be the same track

[Aric Dunn]

100mph is not weakening..

i wish we were able to get those recon reports but its not updating its annoying

[Brent]

[HURAKAN]

[wxwatcher91]

winds up to 100, but why min pressure up to 979?

[caribepr]

may need a TS warning tomorrow morning for Puerto and the Virgin Islands

Could you please expand on that a little more, Derek?

[jhamps10]

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 15SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

[SouthFloridawx]

winds up to 100, but why mid pressure up to 979?

The pressure will follow...

[cycloneye]

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


For our fellow members in PR,Culebra,Vieques,U.S.VI and BVI we have a TS watch as the windfield has expanded 150 miles from the eye.We can have a warning tommorow morning.

[Pearl River]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 162031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS
ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE