CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Evil Jeremy]

100 MPH

[bvigal]

LOL, was just posting that Luis. Only Anguilla and BVI now have nothing posted.

[jhamps10]

looks like nhc slows it down in the carribean, landfall in yucatan monday evening, earlier advisories had it monday afternoon.

[caribepr]

Thank you Luis...I have quite a few people who are at work depending on me for information...thankfully, they've been listening and prepping...just need to know how far into the prep to go (like...bring in the furniture? all the rest has been pretty much done or is being done now).

[EyELeSs1]

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB.

Maybe they are indeed having a hard time getting the exact eye as it is only 10NM wide

[Eyewall]

looking bigger huh?

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 10 Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 2000Z
Latitude: 20°N
Longitude: 55.9°W
Location: 470 mi NE of Roseau, Dominica
Surface: 1016 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 75°F; E (80°) @ 28 mph
1000mb height: 463 ft; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 73°F; E (80°) @ 26 mph
925mb height: 2710 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 64°F; E (90°) @ 35 mph
850mb height: 5115 ft; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 41°F; E (100°) @ 26 mph
700mb height: 10522 ft; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 25°F; E (80°) @ 24 mph
500mb height: 19423 ft; Temp: 22°F; Dewpt: -36°F; ENE (65°) @ 17 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 0°F; Dewpt: -47°F; E (85°) @ 7 mph
300mb height: 31890 ft; Temp: -25°F; Dewpt: -79°F; SE (145°) @ 2 mph
250mb height: 36024 ft; Temp: -43°F; Dewpt: -83°F; N (355°) @ 9 mph
200mb height: 40846 ft; Temp: -63°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SSW (205°) @ 22 mph
SPL 2000N05597W 2024 MBL WND 08024 AEV 00000 DLM WND 08514
015169 WL150 08024 080 =

1016mb winds: E (80°) @ 28 mph
969mb winds: E (80°) @ 26 mph
900mb winds: E (85°) @ 39 mph
868mb winds: E (100°) @ 25 mph
850mb winds: E (100°) @ 26 mph
761mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 25 mph
651mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 16 mph
625mb winds: E (85°) @ 16 mph
612mb winds: E (95°) @ 22 mph
597mb winds: E (80°) @ 25 mph
577mb winds: E (90°) @ 26 mph
561mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 23 mph
473mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 18 mph
430mb winds: NE (45°) @ 12 mph
371mb winds: E (85°) @ 13 mph
362mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 14 mph
350mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 15 mph
342mb winds: NE (50°) @ 13 mph
325mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 16 mph
308mb winds: E (80°) @ 12 mph
295mb winds: W (270°) @ 1 mph
229mb winds: W (270°) @ 13 mph
212mb winds: WSW (240°) @ 13 mph
200mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 22 mph
192mb winds: SSW (210°) @ 32 mph
175mb winds: SW (225°) @ 22 mph
169mb winds: WSW (250°) @ 16 mph
162mb winds: S (185°) @ 17 mph

[Derek Ortt]

some of the models expand the windfield to bring TS winds over Puerto Rico early Saturday morning

[miamicanes177]

looks like nhc slows it down in the carribean, landfall in yucatan monday evening, earlier advisories had it monday afternoon.

NHC does not like to point the cone at a US or Mexico landfall because there is uncertainty as to its final destination. Slowing it down allows them to not cause panic amongst the public.

[tolakram]

looks like nhc slows it down in the carribean, landfall in yucatan monday evening, earlier advisories had it monday afternoon.

NHC does not like to point the cone at a US or Mexico landfall because there is uncertainty as to its final destination. Slowing it down allows them to not cause panic amongst the public.

Stop with the false information. Let's stay on the topic of Dean observations please.

[RL3AO]

Doesn't look good from Brownsville.

[Derek Ortt]

have just issued the 5 p.m. update, while another computer program runs... going to be a very very long night at the office

[sweetpea]

I am very concerned about everyone in the islands. Please stay safe and keep us updated as long as you can.

Debbie

[Brent]

I made out a timeframe for my family in case a category 5 were to hit Houston directly. I used extrapolations from the National Hurricane Center's guidance on speed, position, and intensity. It is consistent with the speed and timing that the GFDL, WRF and GFS models are saying too. It is for Houston, but it should be roughly about the same for any other city in the western Gulf. Remember--this is just a worst case scenario for my area to help us think about what we might have to do.

Today--Houston, Galveston officials meet to discuss hurricane preparations and also regarding tonight's possible flood event, oil companies create plan for possible evacuations.
Friday night--Houston enters the 5 day National Hurricane Center cone of guidance (the big bullet-shaped blob).
Saturday morning--NHC's cone now has SE Texas landfall in it's 5 day cone of guidance. Storm currently south of Puerto Rico--Category 2.
...
Strengthens to Category 3.
Sunday afternoon--Galveston recommends people to plan for possible evacuation. Some start leaving Sunday night. Category 3 Storm has passed over or next to Jamaica causing great destruction. Western Gulf of Mexico Offshore oil platforms being evacuated.
Monday morning--Galveston issues evacuation orders.
Monday afternoon--South Houston, Pasadena, League City, etc. issue evacuation orders. Category 4-5 storm devastates Cozumel/Cancun, Mexico, enters Gulf.
Tuesday morning--Evacuation routes made unidirectional. Category 5 in central Gulf of Mexico, becoming a bigger, broader storm, possibly even reaching record-breaking strength, racing to the northwest. Hurricane Watch issued for our area.
Tuesday afternoon--Rest of the city begins evacuation. Squall lines begin to go through the city every 5 hours.
Tuesday night--Hurricane Warning issued. Winds at 25 mph.
Wednesday midday--Tropical storm force winds begin (40-74 mph). Large parts of city lose power. By afternoon, the whole city has lost power.
Wednesday night--30 foot storm surge washes over Galveston, south Houston and enters part of the 610 loop. Eye makes landfall around midnight.
Thursday late morning--winds go below hurricane strength.
Thursday night--winds go below tropical storm strength.

Sheesh. Talk about the absolute worst case scenario.

[marcane_1973]

Looks like Jamaica is going to take one big hit being on the worst side of Dean.

[Noles2006]

winds up to 100, but why mid pressure up to 979?

The pressure will follow...

It's the other way around... winds respond to pressure changes...

[artist]

a friend of mine has family there - I sure hope not.

[Noles2006]

Looks like Jamaica is going to take one big hit being on the worst side of Dean.

We'll see if that force-field around Jamaica comes through again...

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to disco, the pressure is going back and forth between 974mb and 979mb.

[Brent]

TWC has the pressure down to 920 mb... LOL! and the met didn't even pick up on it being wrong.