CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[oyster_reef]

whoa there GFDL



the levees in N.O. wont hold if this scenario pans out. is nagin still mayor? if so look out superdome and greater N.O. if this does come to pass, they should drag him out into the street, shoot him and pick someone else to handle N.O.!! JMO

I think nerves are getting the best of us...this statement is out of line...JMO

it actualy shows 60mph winds... the leavy can take that.

[Eyewall]

whoa there GFDL



the levees in N.O. wont hold if this scenario pans out. is nagin still mayor? if so look out superdome and greater N.O. if this does come to pass, they should drag him out into the street, shoot him and pick someone else to handle N.O.!! JMO

I think nerves are getting the best of us...this statement is out of line...JMO

agreed.. and i highly doubt that it will hit N.O.

[artist]

agreed

[cyclonic chronic]

i appologize for my last statement about N.O. feelings run high when one talks bout N.O., katrina, and future hurricanes. my grandfather drowned protecting my grandmother. she lived but has no home to speak of anymore. the thought of a major anywhere N.O. gets me heated. again i appologize.

[hial2]

whoa there GFDL



the levees in N.O. wont hold if this scenario pans out. is nagin still mayor? if so look out superdome and greater N.O. if this does come to pass, they should drag him out into the street, shoot him and pick someone else to handle N.O.!! JMO

I think nerves are getting the best of us...this statement is out of line...JMO[/quote]

agreed.. and i highly doubt that it will hit N.O.[/quote]

Eyewall,your avatar is funny..in context..

[Eyewall]

whoa there GFDL



the levees in N.O. wont hold if this scenario pans out. is nagin still mayor? if so look out superdome and greater N.O. if this does come to pass, they should drag him out into the street, shoot him and pick someone else to handle N.O.!! JMO

I think nerves are getting the best of us...this statement is out of line...JMO

agreed.. and i highly doubt that it will hit N.O.[/quote]

Eyewall,your avatar is funny..in context.. [/quote]

haha thank you.. i have 3 brothers in the marines

[Coredesat]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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---------------------------------

Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #1 - 2100 UTC 16 August 2007

...Hurricane Dean east of the Windward Islands and approaching Barbados...

Estimated Position: 13.6°N 56.2°W (confidence fair)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 knots (100 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Movement: WNW at 18 knots

OFFICIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning - Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Lucia

Tropical Storm Warning - Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Saba, St. Eustatius, Montserrat, Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Maarten

Tropical Storm Watch - Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

DISCUSSION

Hurricane Dean (04L) has developed somewhat quickly today. The system seems to have excellent organization, with good convective banding and outflow in all quadrants. However, it does not seem to have a complete eyewall at this time, and it is difficult to see the eye without using BD-IR imagery. Upper-level shear imagery shows that Dean is in an area of low shear that has been moving westward with the cyclone, which is conducive to continued development. Water vapor imagery shows dry air to the west, but as of yet this dry air has not entrained into the circulation due to its good outflow. Dvorak estimates were T4.5/4.5 from SAB and T4.5/4.5 from TAFB. Given recon measurements of 974 hPa, the intensity is estimated to be 85 kt.

There is not much thought required for the forecast track here. The models are in excellent agreement with a general westward track through the Caribbean Sea over the next 72 hours. There is divergence after this point, with the GFDL, HWRF, and GFDN taking the center of Dean to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico. For now, the forecast track is along the consensus of the NCEP GFS ensemble, CMC, BAMD, SHIPS, UKMO, GFDL, GFDN, interpolated HWRF, and LBAR model guidance. Dean should continue strengthening along this track and could become a major hurricane by the end of the 72 hour forecast period. Rapid intensification is a possibility due to high heat content and low shear ahead.

Along this track, Dean may approach or brush Jamaica.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...13.6°N 56.2°W...85 kt
12 hr...13.8°N 59.6°W...90 kt
24 hr...14.1°N 62.8°W...100 kt
36 hr...14.5°N 65.9°W...110 kt
48 hr...15.0°N 69.0°W...120 kt
72 hr...16.5°N 76.0°W...125 kt

The next forecast will be issued around 0730 UTC. Refer to products from the National Hurricane Center for more information on this system.

[Acral]

I think we are going to see more and more models inching towards Louisiana. The 0z model (I think) should have the flight data incorporated then it will get interesting. Betcha a bunch of peeps get surprised by the model runs tonight and tommorrow...

[TSmith274]

While I agree that this (GFDL) is just the latest of what will be coutless fluctuations, it is worrysome. However, even if that track bears out, it would mean a landfall somewhere west of Morgan City, La. The levees in N.O. are in fact stronger than ever, and they would have few problems with a Morgan City landfall. However, New Orleans' largest suburban parish... Jefferson (pop 460,000)... especially lower Jefferson and the west bank of Jefferson Parish would have major problems... perhaps even some problems in limited areas of the west bank of Orleans.

But like I said, I take this with a grain of salt. Let's wait for Sat/Sun model guidance. I'm still betting on central to lowerTexas coast.

[Javlin]

So I go looking around in the 120-130pg area trying to find info on the global model thread and where it Went?any ideas? Alright I see it ,I swear it seemed like it was missing for awhile

[Eyewall]

dont get me wrong.. this is a pretty dangerous situation for the islands.. but i wish i was there haha i love being in storms

[HURAKAN]

Probably the last visible.

[CronkPSU]

new GFS should be here soon right?

[Stormcenter]

While I agree that this (GFDL) is just the latest of what will be coutless fluctuations, it is worrysome. However, even if that track bears out, it would mean a landfall somewhere west of Morgan City, La. The levees in N.O. are in fact stronger than ever, and they would have few problems with a Morgan City landfall. However, New Orleans' largest suburban parish... Jefferson (pop 460,000)... especially lower Jefferson and the west bank of Jefferson Parish would have major problems... perhaps even some problems in limited areas of the west bank of Orleans.

But like I said, I take this with a grain of salt. Let's wait for Sat/Sun model guidance. I'm still betting on central to lowerTexas coast.

I would to agree with your landfall prediction. I don't think it will be as far
south as Mexico or far north or east as the TX./LA. border.

[O Town]

i appologize for my last statement about N.O. feelings run high when one talks bout N.O., katrina, and future hurricanes. my grandfather drowned protecting my grandmother. she lived but has no home to speak of anymore. the thought of a major anywhere N.O. gets me heated. again i appologize.

Sorry to hear of your loss and I think we can forgive you.

[canegrl04]

While I agree that this (GFDL) is just the latest of what will be coutless fluctuations, it is worrysome. However, even if that track bears out, it would mean a landfall somewhere west of Morgan City, La. The levees in N.O. are in fact stronger than ever, and they would have few problems with a Morgan City landfall. However, New Orleans' largest suburban parish... Jefferson (pop 460,000)... especially lower Jefferson and the west bank of Jefferson Parish would have major problems... perhaps even some problems in limited areas of the west bank of Orleans.

But like I said, I take this with a grain of salt. Let's wait for Sat/Sun model guidance. I'm still betting on central to lowerTexas coast.

I would to agree with your landfall prediction. I don't think it will be as far
south as Mexico or far north or east as the TX./LA. border.

Thats what I'm leaning toward.

[micktooth]

18Z GFS just starting to come in on this site:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Sabanic]

While I agree that this (GFDL) is just the latest of what will be coutless fluctuations, it is worrysome. However, even if that track bears out, it would mean a landfall somewhere west of Morgan City, La. The levees in N.O. are in fact stronger than ever, and they would have few problems with a Morgan City landfall. However, New Orleans' largest suburban parish... Jefferson (pop 460,000)... especially lower Jefferson and the west bank of Jefferson Parish would have major problems... perhaps even some problems in limited areas of the west bank of Orleans.

But like I said, I take this with a grain of salt. Let's wait for Sat/Sun model guidance. I'm still betting on central to lowerTexas coast.

I would to agree with your landfall prediction. I don't think it will be as far
south as Mexico or far north or east as the TX./LA. border.

and that leaves . . . . . Texas?? Too far out yet. You may be right, but we have 6-7 more days to watch this, and I still believe we will see many fluctuations in tracks. No way would I bet on any landfall spot this far in advance

[Aric Dunn]

latest radar loop

[weatherguru18]

According to local media in Houston (KTRK-TV), Galveston is holding an emergency meeting tomorrow to decide if activating their hurricane preperation plan is needed.