CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

Latest Microwave from a little while ago.. hour.

[vaffie]

So far, it appears that the best performing global models for Dean's track have been in order:
1) AVNI (the GFS model); AEMI; MRFO
2) HWFI (the NHC I believe)
3) WRF
4) GFDL

The others--NOGAPS, CMC, GFDN, and the consensus models have not done well.

For the BAM models, the BAMM has outperformed the BAMD and BAMS so far.

LBAR and LGEM (statistical models) have also done well.

You can look at their individual scores here:
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/op ... _perf.html.

Let me know if I'm mistaken about any of this.

[hiflyer]

Here is a web page with multiple radio stations and links to them

http://www.caribbeannews.com/radio.html

Radio Carribbean Intl

http://www.rcistlucia.com/

[SunnyThoughts]

From what I understand...the information from the IV plane won't be fully ingested into the models until the 5am package tomorrow morning.

[Wx_Warrior]

Little more NW with 18z run @ 96...lets see what happens when Dean-o hits the GOM.

[Wren]

Sending all of you in the islands my heartfelt wishes for your safety.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Little more NW with 18z run @ 96...lets see what happens when Dean-o hits the GOM.

Where is our threads man..LOL

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN-
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN STRENGTHENING AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ITS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS HAS
EXPANDED AS TO BE A CONCERN TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS... CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM AST...HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX
OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 710 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. DEAN WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 23 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT MARINE
INTERESTS SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SURF
AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM
PORT.

...WINDS...
CURRENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 150 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF DEAN. AT THIS TIME THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO`S SOUTH COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH OVERLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND OR A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS
TRACK TO THE NORTH COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES
OF HURRICANE DEAN SHOULD BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
CENTER OF DEAN PASSES SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SEVEN
INCHES IN THE INTERIOR SECTORS. FLASH FLOODS OR MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ATLANTIC
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 12 FEET AS
HURRICANE DEAN PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE
HARBOR FRIDAY MORNING AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR
VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1145 PM AST BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST IN SAN JUAN.

Local statement of the effects in Puerto Rico/U.S.VI.

[maryvillereb2003]

is it me or does it seem like its trending a tiny bit more north? im no expert but i do love tracking

[Wx_Warrior]

Everyone complained he was posting too many!

[Derek Ortt]

some of the G-IV sondes will likely be in the 18Z run... those released prior to 2100 UTC

[robbielyn]

Some asked if it is at all possible for a west coast fl hit. I think no way. It would have to slam on the breaks at 19 degrees total stop and be pulled straight northward. At it's present trajectory that just isn't possible. I would worry from louisiana to texas but hey everyone should be prepared by now and keep an eye on things ya never know. That's just common sense.

[Wx_Warrior]

108..slamming into Yuc

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_108m.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

126...Don't like the looks of the H over east SE US...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_126m.gif

[Brent]

126 at 500, exiting the NW Yucatan, this is where it gets interesting. Weakness over Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[vaffie]

18Z virtually identical to 12Z guidance at 120 hours and 126 respectively, just about an hour slower.

[Wx_Warrior]

From my understanding most data will be the 06z or 12z run

[Ivanhater]

By the time it hits the yucatan..looks like we will be tracking our next storm

[Brent]

By the time it hits the yucatan..looks like we will be tracking our next storm

Looks like Dean's twin... same track it appears.

[Brent]

138, east of the Mexican coast moving NW, looks similar to previous runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

and again, the weakness over Texas and LA, I don't see a big hurricane not tracking into it!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138m.gif