CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Wx_Warrior]

Hola Mexico on this run again??

[Brent]

Mexico again

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150m.gif

[Coredesat]

Once he moves into the SW caribbean and the Gulf, I expect him to explode. Those waters are running around 90 degrees and been virtually untouched for nearly 2 years unless you count Erin.

Although this is a true statement I see it so much that I absolutely must comment on it.

Water not being touched by a tropical cyclone does not automatically mean it will have very high heat content! The Caribbean waters generally have low heat content during the winter and spring (except in the SW), and tropical cyclones usually don't exist in the Caribbean during that time. The early storms in 2005 had little impact on overall heat potential despite passing repeatedly through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Some asked if it is at all possible for a west coast fl hit. I think no way. It would have to slam on the breaks at 19 degrees total stop and be pulled straight northward. At it's present trajectory that just isn't possible. I would worry from louisiana to texas but hey everyone should be prepared by now and keep an eye on things ya never know. That's just common sense.

I agree. I think Mexico, Texas and Lousiana are the most likely candidates ATM..and that is due to how the upper level environment seems to be setting up ahead of this system. Areas east of Lousiana are not out of the woods yet by any means though, but with each passing day the chances look less and less likely that the storm will hit there. Lot's to watch in the coming days, and things could potentially change. We should be able to pinpoint the forecast path much better by Saturday or Sunday.

[weatherman21]

Hey calamity, that is a great snapshot of the storm at sunset.

[Brent]

Some asked if it is at all possible for a west coast fl hit. I think no way. It would have to slam on the breaks at 19 degrees total stop and be pulled straight northward. At it's present trajectory that just isn't possible. I would worry from louisiana to texas but hey everyone should be prepared by now and keep an eye on things ya never know. That's just common sense.

I agree. I think Mexico, Texas and Lousiana are the most likely candidates ATM..and that is due to how the upper level environment seems to be setting up ahead of this system. Areas east of Lousiana are not out of the woods yet by any means though, but with each passing day the chances look less and less likely that the storm will hit there. Lot's to watch in the coming days, and things could potentially change. We should be able to pinpoint the forecast path much better by Saturday or Sunday.

I agree completely with this, Mexico and Texas most likely, followed by LA.

[benny]

Actually, the data is getting to the 18Z (at least a few drops made it into before the data cutoff time of around 20z) cycle as well. There are quite a few drops to the north of the system that will be assimilated into that model run. But the vast majority of them will affect the 00z runs of all of the models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

138, east of the Mexican coast moving NW, looks similar to previous runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

and again, the weakness over Texas and LA, I don't see a big hurricane not tracking into it!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138m.gif

Unfortunately, I think that weakness will become a big issue in future forecasts. I just do not see how this storm would miss it.

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree...Something is fishy and I dont like it....

[Brent]

Very powerful hurricane SLAMS into Northern Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif

That weakness would bother me if I was in TX or even LA.

[artist]

I believe this is new-

500
URNT10 KNHC 162215
97779 22144 50191 67500 70100 14019 66991 /5764
RMK AF302 WXWXA 07081622302 OB 01


it was just posted at18:18

[vaffie]

Just as with the 12Z run, when it crosses 95W, it changes from WNW to NW/NNW briefly. Then the SE high builds in again and it heads back to the west into Mexico. This is somewhat similar to what Sepat is doing in the Pacific right now. The scale and the timing of such a move, if it takes place, is what we really want to know. A lot will depend upon where the remnants of Erin go, and how strong they are.

[weatherman21]

GOES IR Band 4 Satellite at 22:15Z:


Goes Water Vapor Satellite at 22:15Z:

[Dionne]

I cannot tell whats happening on Kitts and Nevis? Are they south of Dean?

[burasgal]

robbienlyn,

carmen in 1974 made a complete stop at the yucatan and came directly north. Its on NHC archive.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

was thinking about carmen (1974) earlier, didnt it hit louisiana as a cat. 3?

[abajan]

Abajan,
Geez, seems like just yesterday we were doing this same thing....us here in the US listening to the Carib radio station and crying for you all.... and here we go again.
Unfortunalty I have lost the link to that radio station we all listened to when you lost your power.... do you still have a link you could send this way???
My prayers are with you and all the other islanders who are quickly preparing for this storm.....Please stay safe and update us when possible....
Sending big hugs and positive thoughts your way.....

Thanks so much, MBismyPlayground (and everyone else) for your concerns.

Here are a couple of broadcast media links:

Radio & TV:

In less than 20 minutes from now our Evening News (television) broadcast can be viewed here - http://www.cbc.bb/


Radio Only:

http://vob929.com/ should also be of interest to many.

[hurricanetrack]

Amazing consistency run after run for the GFS. It won't budge off that Mexico hit will it? Again, I say it would be incredible for the US global model to hit it so many days out- imagine a 7 day track error of only a hundred miles or so. Wow. We will certainly see- that much is for 100% sure.

[burasgal]

sept 8th 952 mb around morgan city/layfayettea area it looks like on map

[KatDaddy]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.