CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

that would mean NHC added a flight for tonight then

[jabman98]

Dr. Neil Frank on Ch. 11 in Houston just pointed out the high moving east, rather than west as he thought it would, and showed how that would direct Dean more westward.

Frank B on Ch. 2 showed the cone, and it sure does put Houston/Galveston right in the thick of things. At this point, anyway.

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston.

Agreed, KatDaddy. I'll be making my last-minute trips to the store tomorrow.

[Recurve]

Nobody is completely out of the woods just yet from the Keys westward, I do think it is safe to rule out the east coast now though.

This is not an official forecast, caveat emptor, refer to the NHC.
My opinion only from digesting advisories and discussion.
EC would be far outside the expected NHC error. Even if you take that GDFL run curving northwest as likely.
There is a trough/low in the picture.
Never say never. Model's can't see the butterfly wings that set off a whole pattern change.

KatDaddy, Gulf ridge and EC high expected to bridge in some discussions I've read, that's something to hope for in your area.

[cajungal]

I switched back and forth between all the New Orleans Mets. Channel 4 Carl Arrendando was the most bold. Thinking the high will retreat by the time Dean is in the central Gulf sending him on a more northern course towards us. He said Dean is something we are going to have to watch carefully.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I believe this is new-

500
URNT10 KNHC 162215
97779 22144 50191 67500 70100 14019 66991 /5764
RMK AF302 WXWXA 07081622302 OB 01


it was just posted at18:18

That was a non tasked mission. It is probably the NHC sending out planes from the mainland getting ready to travel in to Dean.

The HDOB messages have been having trouble for the past few days getting out. Not sure why. They seem to get scrambled sometimes. That last one I posted was old, so I removed it.

[southerngale]

Very powerful hurricane SLAMS into Northern Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif

That weakness would bother me if I was in TX or even LA.

It's still far enough out and may not even be there in future runs. How likely is the GFS to be right about that about a week out?

[rainman31]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.

I am not evacuating this time.

[WxGuy1]

Some asked if it is at all possible for a west coast fl hit. I think no way. It would have to slam on the breaks at 19 degrees total stop and be pulled straight northward. At it's present trajectory that just isn't possible. I would worry from louisiana to texas but hey everyone should be prepared by now and keep an eye on things ya never know. That's just common sense.

I agree. I think Mexico, Texas and Lousiana are the most likely candidates ATM..and that is due to how the upper level environment seems to be setting up ahead of this system. Areas east of Lousiana are not out of the woods yet by any means though, but with each passing day the chances look less and less likely that the storm will hit there. Lot's to watch in the coming days, and things could potentially change. We should be able to pinpoint the forecast path much better by Saturday or Sunday.

I agree. Given the mid-level ridge (actually, it's a cut-off high) in place across the southern US, I find it hard to think that anywhere east of LA is at much of a risk. Right now, I'd say the highest probability for landfall would be Galveston southward (into Mexico). Of course, we're still a ways out, so anybody saying "it will hit here" or "it won't hit here" is full of it. It's best if we use a little probabilistic reasoning -- "it's most likely to hit here" or "the probability of a hit here is small IMO". There's a ton of uncertainty at that range, but strong model consensus adds confidence that the western Gulf of Mexico coast as at the highest risk. Heck, there's a chance (probably greater than a FL hit, but less than a path through the Yucatan) that Dean will remain south that it never does emerge into the Gulf of Mexico after hitting Mexico, Honduras, and other Central America countries.

Of course, we've consistently seen storms that have been terribly forecast, storms that have ended up 1000s of miles from where all previous forecasts had them. Tropical cyclones (tracks and, in particular, intensities) are extremely difficult to forecast beyond 36 hrs, so it would be incredible to see any particular model solution verify perfectly at 4-5 days.

[ConvergenceZone]

rainman, where did you come up with that picture below your name? lol...Was that 2005??

[weatherguru18]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.

I am not evacuating this time.

And you live in...Clear Lake?!?!?! Wow...I'm sorry that just isn't smart. Do you have a family?

[hicksta]

yall, i would rather be right where the GFS is saying it is going to hit as of now. than be where i am which is galveston. a week out the error is huge. I remember rita 3 days out forcasted around victoria which would mean no house for me hits LA and not even a branch down at my house, around 4-5 days out we should get an IDEA of where it will be. But as of now its just like closing your eyes and putting a pin on a spot.

[Recurve]

That's a NOAA / NASA poster of 2005, I believe...only he knows for sure of course.

[hicksta]

rainmain, i live right next to you bro in nassau bay. Directly on the water. you need to leave if its coming this way. NOTHING will be left if it hits us. nothing.

[benny]

that would mean NHC added a flight for tonight then

Just a training mission I'm afraid. If it were a mission for Dean, it would say DEAN instead of WXWXA

[HURAKAN]

Has anyone been able to point out what happened with the reports?

[vaffie]

Model's can't see the butterfly wings that set off a whole pattern change.

There's a very big butterfly in the Pacific.

[Recurve]

[OT]
Somebody might want to start "Houston area preparation, concerns" thread in TT or preparedness forum. Not saying anywhere is more likely, but discussion's why all y'all are here.

[Houstonia]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.

I am not evacuating this time.

I didn't evacuate for Rita and my parents have steadfastly ignored any requests to evacuate for Dean. Since they are in their 70s, I will be with them.

However, I will say - I have a bad feeling about this storm. Houston has dodged the bullet for so long now...

We just have to wait and see...

[Rainband]

Yea but the gfs hasn't waivered so it may be onto something.

[HURAKAN]

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