CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

Recon really needs to be there tonight.. what if this rapidly deepens and theres only sat estimates to go by? The islanders would be caught off guard.

[sphelps8681]

I live in Lumberton Texas north of Beaumont Texas. I did not leave when Hurrican Rita hit, won't do that again. Aftermath was the worst thing I have ever experiienced. I am not an expert with the terms used on this website so if anyone could let me know what are the chances this thing will hit near Beaumont. I would like to plan this time to get the heck out.

Thanks,

Susan

[shelby]

I highly doubt Dean would be able to come in any stronger than a 3 with all the dry air it'd be pulling in hitting Texas

Please tell why you think this - have you seen what is being pulled into texas at the moment. Additionally, the high that was over us is on the move

[HURAKAN]

Hi, this is Antonio, from Tampico Mexico at Gulf of Mexico, were are watching Dean track and its forecast , Dean remembers me Hurricane Gilbert 1988 path, being a thread to Jamaica, Cancun, and then Mexico - USA border states, also Gilbert reached its Cat 5 at western caribean sea, let´s see if Dean continues to be similar as Gilbert.

Greetings,

Antonio, Bienvenido al foro. Me alegra que se una a nosotros en un momento tan crítico para algunas de las islas de las Antillas y futuramente, para México. Espero que en Tampico estén vigilando muy de cerca la trayectoria futura de Dean. En este foro te enterarás siempre de la información más reciente y aprenderás mucho. Como Miembro del Mes te doy la bienvenida.

Sandy

_______________________

Antonio, Welcome to the forum. I'm very happy that you have joined us in such a critical time for some of the islands of the Antilles and in the future, Mexico. I hope that everyone in Tampico is watching Dean very close. In this forum you will have the latest information and you will learn a lot. As Member of the Month I welcome you.

Sandy

[ConvergenceZone]

anything above a cat 3 would be rare for the gulf, remember 2005 was an oddity...It can happen, but chances are that it won't.

[canegrl04]

I switched back and forth between all the New Orleans Mets. Channel 4 Carl Arrendando was the most bold. Thinking the high will retreat by the time Dean is in the central Gulf sending him on a more northern course towards us. He said Dean is something we are going to have to watch carefully.

TWC is forecasting the trough to create a weakness just enough to influence Dean on Monday

[cpdaman]

i think i notice a more DUE west component in the last couple hours which may hopefully take it IN BETWEEN St. lucia and martinique.

[hicksta]

thats forcasting a cat 5. it can happen and might just happen if it doesnt clip the yuc or cuba.

[southerngale]

I say thats poor taste by the Mets and for Ratings. It's way too far away to even mention that now.

Mention what? Not sure which post you're referring to...

[weatherguru18]

anything above a cat 3 would be rare for the gulf, remember 2005 was an oddity...It can happen, but chances are that it won't.

Can you elaborate?? What do you mean Cat 3 would be rare for the gulf?? I can name so many storms just off the top of my head that made it Cat. 4 and 5...IN THE GULF.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Houstonia I hear you. We have been very very lucky over the years. I was just discussing our plans with my wife. Basically getting ready for storm mode. In reality if Dean hits late Wednesday or early Thursday, mass evacuations would begin Monday......two days out like for Rita. Thats not very long. I need to get propane tomorrow. We have plenty of food and batteries.

[brunota2003]

First off, welcome to S2K. As for the chances of it hitting Texas, no one knows for sure yet. It is still just too far out at this time to know.

[RL3AO]

Recon really needs to be there tonight.. what if this rapidly deepens and theres only sat estimates to go by? The islanders would be caught off guard.

They are under a warning. They should be prepared for something stronger than the NHC is predicting.

[Jagno]

Like you said wsquard77, its not the leaving that bothers me at all. Its the coming back and not knowing what your going to see.

It's what you ARE NOT going to see that's the hard part. You have nooooooo idea what it's like to live in a City all your life and not even be able to recognize anything on the way to find your own house. That is exactly what happened when I finally got back into my area after Rita. The tears just flowed like a fountain when I saw the airport because I knew I was getting close and the closer I got the worse the destruction became. We all take landmarks for granted and when they are gone it's amazing how lost you can be in your own town.

P.S. - I spotted my roof almost 1/4 mile down the highway before getting to my house. Scary!

[canegrl04]

138, east of the Mexican coast moving NW, looks similar to previous runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

and again, the weakness over Texas and LA, I don't see a big hurricane not tracking into it!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138m.gif

Unfortunately, I think that weakness will become a big issue in future forecasts. I just do not see how this storm would miss it.

Apparently, the NWS thinks so too.On TWC they were talking about a trough having some influence on Dean by Monday.Forecasting Dean to cross Yucatan, 105mph hurricane as he enters on the other side.Where he goes from there in doubt

[hiflyer]

But weeks of no power, no supplies, endless heat?

Home Depot has been running a special on portable room air conditioners....will not do your house but will keep a room cool for your elderly parents running off a home generator...got one and run it for an hour for the bedroom and then shutdown everything for good quiet cool night sleep.

[Extremecane]

Looks like maybe dry air is getting in or its about to start a new pulse of deep convection?:

[shelby]

[quote="KatDaddy"] In reality if Dean hits late Wednesday or early Thursday, mass evacuations would begin Monday......two days out like for Rita. Thats not very long. /quote]

I agree

[windstorm99]

By the time it hits the yucatan..looks like we will be tracking our next storm

Yep things are only getting started as we approach the heart of the season.Adrian

[ConvergenceZone]

oops, that was my bad, I meant to say anything above a cat 4 is rare for the gulf. I didn't meant to say 3, sorry, and yes, cat 5's are rare, it doesn't mean they don't happen, but when you looks as long as records have been kept, you realize they don't happen very often, but yes, they can happen...