CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

GFDL looks like Texas, it's very close to the NHC track through Day 5.

[abajan]

I hope this helps anyone -- NRL forecast track layered on Google Earth view of the Antilles. This shouldn't be too big, GIF format...

Thanks for sharing, man.

This must be my lucky day because when I clicked that thumbnail, I just happened to be the 999,999th visitor (as has been the case with me so many times of late)! Excuse me while I go claim my prize... NOT! ROFL

[PTrackerLA]

Can't wait to see the 00z models tonight. If they don't show much change and are still tightly clustered I'd start preparing Galveston-southward.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL = yucatan and then northwest toward TX.

As of this post, the consensus seems to aim somewhere between the very northern tip of Mexico and Galveston as a possible end point for this system. We will have to see if that decides to shift left or right in the coming days (or if the 00z runs with the new data change it).

Thats extreme agreement...

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL looks like Texas, it's very close to the NHC track through Day 5.

Actually it is pretty far south of the NHC track for the next few days..which doesn't quite make sense to me. I think that means the new model run could very well be too far south. A shift back north in the GFDL track is possible during it's next run, IMO.

[Downdraft]

I live in Lumberton Texas north of Beaumont Texas. I did not leave when Hurrican Rita hit, won't do that again. Aftermath was the worst thing I have ever experiienced. I am not an expert with the terms used on this website so if anyone could let me know what are the chances this thing will hit near Beaumont. I would like to plan this time to get the heck out.

Thanks,

Susan

Based upon all available data at the moment the chances are slim to none until it crosses the Yucatan. At the time we need to pay close attention again. As for time you have plenty at the moment to make an educated decision.

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry for the delay... but here is the latest radar animation.. with 9 images verses 3 from the main site





you can see the center coming to view ..

[Recurve]

You know how the hair on your neck stands up. That's CLIPER for me. I know! It's only climatology and persistence, nothing dynamical, skilless. But as an NWS forecaster said to me this morning, "I don't like it when any strengthening hurricane is in the Caribbean."

As you say, the real models are in remarkable agreement. I'm hoping for the best for y'all in the islands and the Gulf.

[hicksta]

Im gonna take a bold prediction. Its just gonna go to the gulf then take a hard turn east and go between the keys and cuba out to the atlantic . Gotta think positive right :]

[ROCK]

GFDL looks like Texas, it's very close to the NHC track through Day 5.

Actually it is pretty far south of the NHC track for the next few days..which doesn't quite make sense to me. I think that means the new track could very well be too far south. A shift back north in the GFDL track is possible during it's next run, IMO.

I am waiting until the NOAA flight data gets ingested before I start narrowing down my predictions.......islands, MX to FL needs to keep a close eye on the models....JMO....

[jasons2k]

FWIW, local Met here (Frank Billingsley) says it will depend on the speed of Dean; if he slows down, expect him to turn more northward towards TX. We'll see....

[Brent]

GFDL looks like Texas, it's very close to the NHC track through Day 5.

Actually it is pretty far south of the NHC track for the next few days..which doesn't quite make sense to me. I think that means the new model run could very well be too far south. A shift back north in the GFDL track is possible during it's next run, IMO.

Yeah I noticed that upon closer inspection(the HWRF is the same color which is confusing). Definitely very interesting...

I still think South Texas or Northern Mexico is most likely but my confidence has dropped a bit.

[weatherguru18]

Local stores including Home Depot and Lowe's have started putting generators, water, batteries and other supplies out front. This is according to a guy on the KHOU forum in Houston. If this would have been Rita, this might have been a blip on the news in the second block. People well remember Rita...this proves it.

[Rainband]

I don't think there's anything wrong with that at all myself stating that "the weakness might turn it north" they are just trying to cover all bases so that EVERYONE can be prepared, I'm confused....

i agree that everyone should be prepared after 2004 and 2005 from June 1. I just think it's too early too early to mention that. Thats just my opinion and I think it will just cause people to be complacent if it doesn't JMO.

[Recurve]

I'm at your sense of humor man. Keep it! We are all concerned about the islands. If I can help with any information, links, time/distance calculations (GoogleE makes it easy), I'm glad to.

[ROCK]

Local stores including Home Depot and Lowe's have started putting generators, water, batteries and other supplies out front. This is according to a guy on the KHOU forum in Houston. If this would have been Rita, this might have been a blip on the news in the second block. People well remember Rita...this proves it.

that guy was me!!!

[Scorpion]

Looks pretty deep

[Scorpion]

I'd say maybe 900 mb near Cozumel?

[southerngale]

I say thats poor taste by the Mets and for Ratings. It's way too far away to even mention that now.

Mention what? Not sure which post you're referring to...

That the weakness might turn it north. It's still days away from the GOM.

If you meant Brent's post about his met in Alabama, I didn't think it was in poor taste. He was just saying that could happen. I would think that most mets along the Gulf Coast are saying something similar... "we need to watch it" as there is no final landfall after the Yucatan in the NHC 5-day forecast. There's really not THAT much time to make decisions anyway. Before Rita, we had reservations 5 days before it hit, when it was still forecast to hit N. Mexico or Deep South Texas. A few days later, as the forecast track starting shifting towards us, people couldn't even find rooms in Oklahoma! A little heads up that it could possibly head in your direction can help people make early preparations, just in case.

[Brent]

Looks pretty deep

Has to be at least 920's but I can't read it, lines are too packed together.