CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Annie Oakley]

As an aside....sorry...thank goodness for NOAA Radio and Storm2k.org.!

[vaffie]

I'm really having a hard time figuring Dean out. I expected to see a much more organized core. This looks strong and violent, but not very organized. Are these odd pulses indicative of an organizing storm, or one that is having problems organizing?

My guess is that it's not that it's disorganized, it's just that it doesn't have sufficient moisture to work with yet. That will change on Saturday morning however.when it's south of Puerto Rico.

[jaxfladude]

This is as of 10:25 pm edt Aug. 16th ,2007:

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Dean Now the major headline on http://www.drudgereport.com/

[pojo]

so how much data will the 0z models have considering most of the recon numbers were lost? just the gulfstream's?

if the numbers were communicated via Radio (Not SATCOM) the NHC will use the numbers... if they weren't... they have to rely on what information we gave them in flight... and then we'd call them on the ground and relay the numbers.

[jhamps10]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


ok my VERY early thoughts on Dean.

Cat chances at landfall (Yucatan)

cat 1= 5% or less

cat 2= 10%

cat 3= 20%

cat 4= 35%

cat 5= 30%

Landfall in U.S./Mexico, Cat 4 at 145-150 depending on time in the GOM next Thursday is my VERY first vague prediction.

Best chances are Texas and the very north end of Mexico. I think that all areas in the GOM really still needs to watch this closely, as well as western Cuba, and South florida, espically SW florida.

Will go into more details as we get closer.

[ConvergenceZone]

From Jeff Masters:

Jeff Lindner

Thanx, corrected my initial post...

[LSU2001]

I really do not like the looks of this run of the GFDL. Looks like it shows Dean shooting the gap b/w the yuc and cuba then turning north. I hope and pray that with the new Gulfstream data this run is total garbage.
Tim

[Aric Dunn]

Latest radar..

the eye is coming very close now

[deltadog03]

NAM is VERY close to making direct strike on jamaica! Its slower with the ULL too

[swimaster20]

That's the old 12z run, LSU. The new 18z is further south, sort of in line w/ the UKMET.

[LSU2001]

thanks swimmaster, I just got it off Weather underground so I was not happy.
TIm

[jhamps10]

I really do not like the looks of this run of the GFDL. Looks like it shows Dean shooting the gap b/w the yuc and cuba then turning north. I hope and pray that with the new Gulfstream data this run is total garbage.
Tim

that was the 12z, 18z is a little better for US, but slams Yucatan with cat 5.

[Derek Ortt]

just put out the 11 p.m. update on nwhhc.com for those of you in the islands

The entire south coasts of the DR and Haiti need a Hurricnae Watch now due to the rapid forward speed and the expanding wind field

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Hurricane Dean doesn't look like it's organized much tonight. But it still looks impressive. It'll probably stay at 100 mph at the 11 pm Advisory with a small chance of an increase to 105.

[CronkPSU]

so how much data will the 0z models have considering most of the recon numbers were lost? just the gulfstream's?

if the numbers were communicated via Radio (Not SATCOM) the NHC will use the numbers... if they weren't... they have to rely on what information we gave them in flight... and then we'd call them on the ground and relay the numbers.

thanks

[LSU2001]

OK, is this the 18z???

I don't like it much better

Tim

[Deputy Van Halen]

I keep hearing Dean referred to as a "small" storm, meaning the geographic size and not the intensity. Is this a characteristic that is likely to remain for the storm's entire course? Or could it grow and possibly turn into a Carla- or Allen-like monstrosity?


P.S. Given the tendency to jump the gun on this board, I half expected to see this thread:


POLL: What name should replace the retired Dean on the 2013 list?

Vegas would probably give the best odds to Drew, though I'll be rooting for Doby.

[deltadog03]

Now, what models does this data go into?? Only AMERICAN models?? ie. gfs, nam, gfdl yada yada or all of them?

[Category6]

It's not looking very organized at the moment.

[wxmann_91]

The temporary weakening right now, I suspect, is due to decreased healthy inflow, likely the result of S. America.