CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[deltadog03]

NAM is further north and east with its track via the 00z run. I know its the NAM, but hey should have the new data in there right?

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[jhamps10]

NAM is further north and east with its track via the 00z run. I know its the NAM, but hey should have the new data in there right?

I would think so... But it may not be in till the 6z run.

[cycloneye]

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...
NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[canegrl04]

FWIW : network radio news alittle bit ago "Dean is expected to be in the central Gulf Tuesday.Where it goes from there undetermined"

[Yankeegirl]

This is from Jeff.... I am a bit concerned...

Dean was ignored today due to ongoing flood issues in Harris County.



Very dangerous hurricane forecasted into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.



Residents along the NW and W Gulf of Mexico should review hurricane preparedness procedures and be prepared to enact these plans late this weekend or early next week.



State of TX EOC will begin H-120 count down at noon Friday for fuel transport to evac zones and sweeping of evac routes. Local EOC’s and will begin local initiation of hurricane procedures plans at noon Friday.



Discussion:



Category 2 hurricane racing toward the Windward Islands with 100mph winds. Dean looks like a classic developing hurricane this evening with deep cold cloud tops over the center with an eye peaking through at times. Recon. reported a central pressure of 974mb this afternoon.



Track:



Forecast track is clustered along a due west track through the Caribbean with Dean reaching the western Caribbean late this weekend as a powerful cat 4/5 hurricane capable of catastrophic damage. GFDL continues to be a northern outlier taking the hurricane toward the middle/upper TX coast on its 18Z run. GFS and other models are cluster southward along the TX coast and N Mexico coast…although GFS ensembles are showing more of a northerly track. Keys to the final track will be weakness over TX from Erin and TUTT forecast to move westward across the Gulf this weekend. The weaker the ridge over TX the more northerly the turn. Small intense hurricanes like Dean want to turn northward and bump the ridge and attempt to find a weakness…if one is there it will want to turn into it. Remember Rita was forecast to go into Mexico at Day 5 so no one within the error cone should disregard the potential impact of this hurricane.



Intensity:



The intensity guidance is down right troubling. GFDL shows a strong cat 5 (170 + mph) plowing across the Gulf…geez. See no reason why cat 4 intensity will not be reached in the Caribbean and maintained through landfall on the Yucatan…may see cat 5. Given excellent upper level outflow and high ocean heat content Dean will become a very dangerous hurricane. Will have to see how Dean’s inner structure is disrupted over the Yucatan although the fast forward motion may not allow for much weakening. All guidance brings Dean toward the western Gulf as a major hurricane…cat 3 or higher and I see no reason to go against this thinking.



Preparations:



Coastal residents along the Gulf coast need to frequently check on the progress of Dean this weekend.



Keep gas tanks filled above 3/4ths of a tank at all times to help ease a rush on gas supplies early next week if an evacuation is called for.



Residents in coastal evacuation zones should be prepared for possible evacuation orders as early as Monday morning…due to the fast forward motion the prep. Window is going to close very quickly and critical decisions related to evacuation cannot wait until the hurricane is in the Gulf.



Employers should notify hurricane ride out teams before the close of business on Friday so they can prepare over the weekend.

[jhamps10]

winds still at 100 per 11pm advisory.

[shelby]

The UKMET and GFDL are showing an turn north when Dean either hits or gets near the Cancun. Does anyone feel that the other models will fall in line?

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE
FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO
US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 976 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/22. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK OF DEAN WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MOVES THIS LOW WESTWARD OUT OF THE WAY
AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...AND HENCE ONLY
A MODEST RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT LONG
RANGES HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DEAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THIS
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW NO
EVIDENCE OF UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
LOW LAGS A BIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ENDS UP IN THE SAME
PLACE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.1N 58.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[LSU2001]

I keep hearing Dean referred to as a "small" storm, meaning the geographic size and not the intensity. Is this a characteristic that is likely to remain for the storm's entire course? Or could it grow and possibly turn into a Carla- or Allen-like monstrosity?


P.S. Given the tendency to jump the gun on this board, I half expected to see this thread:


POLL: What name should replace the retired Dean on the 2013 list?

Vegas would probably give the best odds to Drew, though I'll be rooting for Doby.

Looks to my very uneducated eyes that the storm is trying to increase in size and has expanded during the day today.
JMHO,
Tim

[SkeetoBite]

[jhamps10]

This is from Jeff.... I am a bit concerned...

Dean was ignored today due to ongoing flood issues in Harris County.



Very dangerous hurricane forecasted into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.



Residents along the NW and W Gulf of Mexico should review hurricane preparedness procedures and be prepared to enact these plans late this weekend or early next week.



State of TX EOC will begin H-120 count down at noon Friday for fuel transport to evac zones and sweeping of evac routes. Local EOC’s and will begin local initiation of hurricane procedures plans at noon Friday.



Discussion:



Category 2 hurricane racing toward the Windward Islands with 100mph winds. Dean looks like a classic developing hurricane this evening with deep cold cloud tops over the center with an eye peaking through at times. Recon. reported a central pressure of 974mb this afternoon.



Track:



Forecast track is clustered along a due west track through the Caribbean with Dean reaching the western Caribbean late this weekend as a powerful cat 4/5 hurricane capable of catastrophic damage. GFDL continues to be a northern outlier taking the hurricane toward the middle/upper TX coast on its 18Z run. GFS and other models are cluster southward along the TX coast and N Mexico coast…although GFS ensembles are showing more of a northerly track. Keys to the final track will be weakness over TX from Erin and TUTT forecast to move westward across the Gulf this weekend. The weaker the ridge over TX the more northerly the turn. Small intense hurricanes like Dean want to turn northward and bump the ridge and attempt to find a weakness…if one is there it will want to turn into it. Remember Rita was forecast to go into Mexico at Day 5 so no one within the error cone should disregard the potential impact of this hurricane.



Intensity:



The intensity guidance is down right troubling. GFDL shows a strong cat 5 (170 + mph) plowing across the Gulf…geez. See no reason why cat 4 intensity will not be reached in the Caribbean and maintained through landfall on the Yucatan…may see cat 5. Given excellent upper level outflow and high ocean heat content Dean will become a very dangerous hurricane. Will have to see how Dean’s inner structure is disrupted over the Yucatan although the fast forward motion may not allow for much weakening. All guidance brings Dean toward the western Gulf as a major hurricane…cat 3 or higher and I see no reason to go against this thinking.



Preparations:



Coastal residents along the Gulf coast need to frequently check on the progress of Dean this weekend.



Keep gas tanks filled above 3/4ths of a tank at all times to help ease a rush on gas supplies early next week if an evacuation is called for.



Residents in coastal evacuation zones should be prepared for possible evacuation orders as early as Monday morning…due to the fast forward motion the prep. Window is going to close very quickly and critical decisions related to evacuation cannot wait until the hurricane is in the Gulf.



Employers should notify hurricane ride out teams before the close of business on Friday so they can prepare over the weekend.

This was posted on a previous page I believe, but your right, very omnious. also Dr Frank from Channel 11 in HOU meantioned that dean could be a problem for SE texas next thursday.

[jhamps10]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.1N 58.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W 90 KT

From 11PM advisory,.

[Weatherfreak14]

winds still at 100 per 11pm advisory.

11pm advisory says winds down to 95mph gusts to 120pmh.

[Wx_Warrior]

Has anyone mentioned Emily? Don't kill me...Just asking

[jasons2k]

Not to be the thread police, but the reposting of Jeff's email, 2X, uncleaned, just took half a page

[Sanibel]

I think I'm tracking the covered eye heading right down the 14 latitude towards St Lucia. If it corrects it looks like the worst of Dean could go through the pass between Martinique and St Lucia - but that is a tight call and threading the needle.

[jhamps10]

winds still at 100 per 11pm advisory.

11pm advisory says winds down to 95mph gusts to 120pmh.

SORRY, here is the actual quote from NHC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting quote from the 11pm discussion about conditions in the NW Carribean:

THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
LOW LAGS A BIT.