CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ericinmia]

I don't like the look of the new 00z Nam... I feel bad for gulf residents if the other models start jumping on that trend. Its showing Dean heading for the far western tip of cuba at around 84+ hours. I'm anxious to see what the 00z gfs and gfdl show.
-Eric

(I'm still not sure whether the G4 upper air data even made it into this run, we may need to wait for the 06z i suppose)

[Duddy]

I don't like the look of the new 00z Nam... I feel bad for gulf residents if the other models start jumping on that trend. Its showing Dean heading for the far western tip of cuba at around 84+ hours. I'm anxious to see what the 00z gfs and gfdl show.
-Eric

(I'm still not sure whether the G4 upper air data even made it into this run, we may need to wait for the 06z i suppose)

You have a link to that? I don't know what 0z, 8z, 12 means...

[Kludge]

Not to be the thread police, but the reposting of Jeff's email, 2X, uncleaned, just took half a page

This forum went from Macys to Walmart in one season....

Hopefully the start of school will curtail the "I agree!" and "what is CDO?" -type posts. Don't get me wrong...curiosity and teaching is great...but text messaging "sux".

[Aric Dunn]

I will now post these loops in here

I feel they will benefit everyone in here

tell me if you want me to keep them coming




the eye will pass over Martinique and st.Lucia!! over the next few hours.. preparations should be now completed.. very little time left

[SaveNola]

I don't like the look of the new 00z Nam... I feel bad for gulf residents if the other models start jumping on that trend. Its showing Dean heading for the far western tip of cuba at around 84+ hours. I'm anxious to see what the 00z gfs and gfdl show.
-Eric

However, the NHC discussions are sounding more confident each time of a very southern track. So far they are doing very well.

[artist]

Time zones are expressed as an offset of an integral number of minutes from UTC. The time expressed in such a time zone differs from UTC in its minute number, hour number, and possibly date, but the number of seconds is the same in all time zones. This is important when leap seconds occur. When a positive leap second occurs, it is denoted as "23:59:60" in UTC, and (for example) "20:29:60" in the Newfoundland time zone at UTC−03:30. If a negative leap second occurs, such that "23:59:59" does not occur in UTC, it is "20:29:59" that is missing in the UTC−03:30 time zone.

The UTC time zone is sometimes denoted by the letter Z – a reference to the equivalent nautical time zone (GMT), which has been denoted by a Z since about 1950. The letter also refers to the "zone description" of zero hours, which has been used since 1920. See time zone history. Since the NATO phonetic alphabet and amateur radio word for Z is "Zulu", UTC is sometimes known as Zulu time. This is especially true in aviation, where Zulu is the universal standard.[9] This ensures all pilots regardless of location are using the same 24-hour clock, thus avoiding confusion when flying between time zones.[10][11]

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 0816B07

Today Hurricane Dean Strengthened to a Category 2. Dean is now nearing St. Lucia and Martinique.

Refer to the graphic from the last advisory.

Southwestern North Atlantic...Category 2 Hurricane Dean. Dean is still quickly moving W and is for a short time stable. Dean will be VERY close to St. Lucia and Martinique between 8-11am tomorrow morning as a maximum category 2. From there it will head towards Jamaica mid afternoon Saturday. From there it may near the Cayman islands on late Sunday and the northern part of the Yucatan on Monday Night and Tuesday am. At this point I am going to wait for the models to come out with the new recon data before going any further. Hurricane Warnings are in affect in the middle Lesser Antilles. Those in that area should be taking shelter at this point. Evacuations should stop as conditions will be heading down drastically in the coming hours. Heavy rain and very strong winds will impact those in these areas. Tropical Storm force winds will be impacting the islands in the next few hours, if not already. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the remaining Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. Those in these areas should be impacted by TS winds in the next 24-36hrs. They should be finishing evacuations and taking shelter as soon as possible. All others in the Carib...Mexico...Texas...Louisiana should be watching this storm and preparing now.

Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:Hurricane Dean active
US threat of Tropical development in next 24 hours: ongoing from Erin

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789

[micktooth]

00 GFS starting to come in

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[jhamps10]

buckle up the belts, as it could be a bumpy ride on the GFS train.

all joking aside, this run will be important, as we should have the g4 data in now.

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go

[Sanibel]

Check it out. You can see the eye circle on the last frame of this shortwave loop. It's wider than the pass between St Lucia and Martinique:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[ericinmia]

I don't like the look of the new 00z Nam... I feel bad for gulf residents if the other models start jumping on that trend. Its showing Dean heading for the far western tip of cuba at around 84+ hours. I'm anxious to see what the 00z gfs and gfdl show.
-Eric

(I'm still not sure whether the G4 upper air data even made it into this run, we may need to wait for the 06z i suppose)

You have a link to that? I don't know what 0z, 8z, 12 means...

I was using maps off a paysite, they show it in a little nicer presentation, but i can't post them here.
Here is the free link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Check the last 3 frames, a more NW heading is becoming pronounced. It looks like the storm catches up to the Low moving west into the gulf, albeit just on the tail end.
-Eric

[jhamps10]

00z GFS now starting guys. Only time will tell if it trends north with the NAM or not.


also any members on here right now from the islands, care to give report of conditions?

[SaveNola]

buckle up the belts, as it could be a bumpy ride on the GFS train.

all joking aside, this run will be important, as we should have the g4 data in now.

I predict no big change.

[Aric Dunn]

latest .. loop...

preparations should be completed .. landfall in the next few hours



no time left winds will be increasing fast ..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Out to 12 hrs. now..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

24 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

00z GFS now starting guys. Only time will tell if it trends north with the NAM or not.


also any members on here right now from the islands, care to give report of conditions?

Well, I'm crossing my fingers...Hopefully it will be good news and it will trend South. I know it has to hit somewhere, but the less populated area the better....We've already had 2 bits of good news tonight in that it hasn't increased in intensity and they mention possible less favorable conditions in the western carib....Got to look for any bright spots with this evil storm...

[ROCK]

Out to 12 hrs. now..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

doing the same at the KHOU site for you EWG....a lot of local people might want to know....

[srainhoutx]

Out to 12 hrs. now..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

doing the same at the KHOU site for you EWG....a lot of local people might want to know....

being done on KHOU site Rock

[fci]

00z GFS now starting guys. Only time will tell if it trends north with the NAM or not.


also any members on here right now from the islands, care to give report of conditions?

There is a separate thread, a sticky at the top; that is reserved for Island residents.
You can probably get conditions there.
I recommend that all just read the thread and not post opinions, or wishes for safety there and leave it as the thread for residents in the Islands who are certainly under the gun.
The thread is: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97071