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HouTXmetro
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5261 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:38 pm

anxiously watching....
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ROCK
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Re: Re:

#5262 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:39 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Out to 12 hrs. now..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif






doing the same at the KHOU site for you EWG....a lot of local people might want to know....


being done on KHOU site Rock






yeah, we are one and the same guy...... :lol: :lol: maybe I should change my name on here....
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5263 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:40 pm

Wow my heart is pumping and waiting... doesent it look a little more northerly track than the preveously run at 30hrs.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5264 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:40 pm

not to me...still w
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#5265 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:40 pm

30 hours.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

The only difference I can see between the 18z and 00z so far is that the ULL is slightly larger at 30 hrs.
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TTheriot1975
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#5266 Postby TTheriot1975 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:40 pm

I am new...not trained...just a newbie...wanted to know what the new runs are showing....
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5267 Postby canetracker » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:41 pm

does look a bit more northerly. still watching.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_030l.gif
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ericinmia
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5268 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:41 pm

Haven't seen it posted, and its a 12z run... so whatever its worth.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html
But the 36km FSU mm5 model run shows Dean 'bumping' north around jamaica.

The mystery voodoo prevents storms from directly crossing. :eek: It seems they always deviate one way or another. Perhaps the very tall mountains??
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5269 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:41 pm

Why does the model initialize at such a high pressure compared to the NHC estimates?
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Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#5270 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:41 pm

latest..



Image
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ROCK
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Re:

#5271 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:41 pm

TTheriot1975 wrote:I am new...not trained...just a newbie...wanted to know what the new runs are showing....




welcome...we are posting the latest GFS run...
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Re:

#5272 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:42 pm

TTheriot1975 wrote:I am new...not trained...just a newbie...wanted to know what the new runs are showing....



Nuttin yet
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Extremeweatherguy
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#5273 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:43 pm

36 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

ULL is still larger on this run than the 18z run, you can compare with the link below...

500mb on 18z run at the same time = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif
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TTheriot1975
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#5274 Postby TTheriot1975 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:44 pm

so extremeweatherguy..what does that mean?
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Re:

#5275 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:45 pm

TTheriot1975 wrote:so extremeweatherguy..what does that mean?



hang on... wait for the run to complete some...won't be long...
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Re:

#5276 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:45 pm

TTheriot1975 wrote:so extremeweatherguy..what does that mean?
The ULL has slightly more steering influence. However, that really doesn't mean anything yet. We will need to see where the model has the storm in relation to that ULL further down the road on this run.
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#5277 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:46 pm

48 h

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models =00z GFS is rolling in

#5278 Postby StormWarning1 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:46 pm

skufful wrote:Why does the model initialize at such a high pressure compared to the NHC estimates?

The pressure isobars you see do not represent the lowest prerssure. That area is to small to fit on a global map.
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TTheriot1975
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#5279 Postby TTheriot1975 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:47 pm

Thanks....
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Extremeweatherguy
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#5280 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:47 pm

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

observations: the storm is a hair slower at this point than it was on the 18z and the ULL is slightly larger.
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