CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

observations: the storm is a hair slower at this point than it was on the 18z and the ULL is slightly larger.

And a little more north too.

[canegrl04]

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

observations: the storm is a hair slower at this point than it was on the 18z and the ULL is slightly larger.

Which should indicate the ULL beginning to pull it more NW?

[Steve]

Yo SE TX and LA, don't freak or hang onto any of the models just because they might seem to change a little. They will continue to change somewhat but they already were in a pretty tightly clustered arrangement earlier (18z in particular). I'm not ready to call it yet, but I think some of the handwriting is on the wall. And remember, my coworkers psychic said there would be 3 very dangerous storms this year, but Brownsville was ground zero (whatever that means).

Steve

[jhamps10]

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

observations: the storm is a hair slower at this point than it was on the 18z and the ULL is slightly larger.

And a little more north too.

took the words right off my keyboard. but not too far north, at least right now anyway.,

[artist]

to me it looks like it is going to pass south of its forecast point -

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[skufful]

Why does the model initialize at such a high pressure compared to the NHC estimates?

The pressure isobars you see do not represent the lowest prerssure. That area is to small to fit on a global map.

Aren't we talking 30 millibars? Wouldn't there be some tight circles? (976 - 1000) line every 4 millibars

[tropicsgal05]

How reliable is NRL? I was looking at different tracks and was curious? TY

[StormScanWx]

Not knowing a lot about tropical meteorology, could someone please tell me why this GFS run is so significant? At least that is the impression I'm getting reading this thread is that this run is/was particularly important. Are other models derived from this model?

[jasons2k]

Thanks Steve, I needed that. A bit tense here @ the moment. I did not like what DT had to say tonight. I don't like how the pieces are coming together.

[jhamps10]

Not knowing a lot about tropical meteorology, could someone please tell me why this GFS run is so significant? At least that is the impression I'm getting reading this thread is that this run is/was particularly important. Are other models derived from this model?

the reason why this run is more important is that we should have the data from the recon flight today injested into the model run. More data= better forecast.

[brunota2003]

Not knowing a lot about tropical meteorology, could someone please tell me why this GFS run is so significant? At least that is the impression I'm getting reading this thread is that this run is/was particularly important. Are other models derived from this model?

This run as the data [or so we hope] from todays NOAA G-IV jet...meaning it has real world conditions to work from when it starts off. The data can change things significantly, or the model might of got it right...we'll see.

[Evil Jeremy]

This particular run tonight is very important because it is the first to incorperate data form the GIV flight earlier today.

[Steve]

>>Not knowing a lot about tropical meteorology, could someone please tell me why this GFS run is so significant? At least that is the impression I'm getting reading this thread is that this run is/was particularly important. Are other models derived from this model?

It's because there may be some new upper air data figured into the model. It's not really /that/ important in the grand scheme of things with a storm several days away from us, but we're looking for trends. Will it stay southerly? Will it move closer to an eventual US landfall? etc. And yes, some other models are derived from the GFS.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

60 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

observations: storm is slightly slower and slightly further north than on 18z run. The ULL is larger but in the same general position.

[CronkPSU]

Not knowing a lot about tropical meteorology, could someone please tell me why this GFS run is so significant? At least that is the impression I'm getting reading this thread is that this run is/was particularly important. Are other models derived from this model?

the reason why this run is more important is that we should have the data from the recon flight today injested into the model run. More data= better forecast.

and yes other models do use the GFS in their formulas/computations/modeling whatever you want to call it

[PTrackerLA]

:lol: Thanks Steve, I needed that. A bit tense here @ the moment. I did not like what DT had to say tonight. I don't like how the pieces are coming together.

Link to what DT said?

[Wx_Warrior]

06, 12 will be much better of course, but this one should be a little better for all the data they got in 1 flight

[cpdaman]

funny the new gfs shows dean a bit slower because if i'm not mistaken he has down shifted as he approaches Martinique at 25 mph

although i do remember reading that if it gained a little more latitude it may slow

[Incident_MET]

Not liking the looks of this new 00Z run. Looks like a weaker ridge to the north and a slower motion. Both not good for the Gulf States

[shelby]

Yo SE TX and LA, don't freak or hang onto any of the models just because they might seem to change a little. They will continue to change somewhat but they already were in a pretty tightly clustered arrangement earlier (18z in particular). I'm not ready to call it yet, but I think some of the handwriting is on the wall. And remember, my coworkers psychic said there would be 3 very dangerous storms this year, but Brownsville was ground zero (whatever that means).

Steve

I agree but what I worry about is the moving high and I guess for a lack of correct weather terminology - that domee thingee that brought us 100 plus heat moving to the SE part of the nation. I also forgot the fact that there is alot of moisture from Erin for it to find. Just my thoughts