CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

to those living on Martinique that may be reading this

stop reading and immediately move to your safe room

yes

hurricane force winds in the next hour or 2



just updated the radar... two new images.. showing improved banding and lastest satellite from an hour ago .. show a larger burst of convection which may mean its trying to strengthen .. so yeah take shelter. bring your laptop if you have one..

[HouTXmetro]

Pretty much the track stayed the same until landfall. Dean is still booking it right now and I'm wondering if he is ahead of schedule.

[Aric Dunn]

two new images .. for the radar..
still showing improved banding and convection on the western half is filling in.. so it maybe trying to strengthen

[TTheriot1975]

OK...why is it so quiet right now?

[Duddy]

OK...why is it so quiet right now?

Silent Panic

[vaffie]

Hmm....might have to start planning on when to leave NC.

Sunday Morning. Two day trip if you drive for 12 hours a day.

Bring extra gas with you...cause you might not be able to get back...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is an animation of the 00z GFS = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC is in and farther south than the GFS with a brush through whatever those countries are there (Nicaragua and Belize????)

Steve

[Sanibel]

Last frame shows a tiny mean-looking eye that should shoot the pass right between the islands of St Lucia and Martinique.

Would not doubt 105-110mph from eye structure...

[HouTXmetro]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC is in and farther south than the GFS with a brush through whatever those countries are there (Nicaragua and Belize????)

Steve

Is the CMC further south than the previous run?

[Extremeweatherguy]

CMC has been all over the place lately and is usually the furthest south. I am not putting a lot of stock into it...it seems completely out of whack.

[Aric Dunn]

Last frame shows a tiny mean-looking eye that should shoot the pass right between the islands of St Lucia and Martinique.

which would put the northern eyewall over Martinique..

[TTheriot1975]

Anything from GFDL?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anything from GFDL?

The 0z GFDL run should be out around 12:30am CDT.

[Steve]

>>Is the CMC further south than the previous run?

Yeah. It hits like Belize instead of the Northern Yucatan; weaker in the end game too.

Steve

[vaffie]

CMC has been generally that far south the whole time. I am not putting a lot of stock into it...it seems completely out of whack.

It's been the worst performing global for Dean so far, either going off to the north or to the south. I wouldn't rely on it. A consensus of the GFDL, GFS and WRF has been the best by far. I keep an eye on the NAM too now since it did so well with Erin and is now based off the WRF and not so much the ETA.

[Sanibel]

Maybe not. We are talkin 10 mile wide or less eye that could miss land by 15 miles south of island. Yes, Martinique would get strong shoulder winds but not direct eyewall.

- This will have the effect of not weakening Dean on island pass...

[bvigal]

To my friends in Leewards, north of Martinique up to Antigua and to the west...

...just checked buoy 41100 up at 15.9 57.9 - recorded wave heights 23.6ft. (wind 35kt) This storm has been pushing hard and very fast for hours now, and really raised some swell, and 10-12 second period! If you know anyone on S to E coastline in low-lying areas, tell them to be ready to move to higher ground, if necessary, there will be some coastal flooding.

As to the other buoy east of Martinique, 41101, at 14.6N 56.2W, lost it's wind gage, last measure at 1900z measure of ENE 49.9kts. (well, it IS returning a wind value, 1.0 to 2.9 kts for last 9hrs - not!)

[Annie Oakley]

Texas salutes ARIC DUNN!

[Steve]

>>I wouldn't rely on it.

I'm just posting it because it's out.

Sometimes I like the Canadian, sometimes I don't. Occasionally the GEM Ensembles are money, but I don't have all those links on this computer.

Steve