CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[MWatkins]

Yep...about 100NM further north than the 18Z run.

Even the CMC is showing the north hook toward the end of the run.

NOGAPS still way south...but its only out through 120HR.

Not sure the synoptic drops told us anything (if they occured at all)...

Another day of watching and waiting...

MW

[hicksta]

This is a wierd setup, gfdl is worst case scenario for galv but we have GFS at brownsville.

[Brent]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why do I sense excitement when the models present bad news
for the U.S.?
I mean come on now did everyone forget what Katrina and Rita already?
I sure hope not.

I don't think it is excitement. I think it is a sudden rush of fear that comes over us when we see something like this. The GFDL run tonight is what we hope doesn't happen. It is probably the worst case scenario I have seen for SE Texas so far.

[Aric Dunn]

00z...
gfdl

[Extremeweatherguy]

That image was 8p.m. or so it states on weather underground

weatherunderground is wrong. The image it depicts shows the 0z track.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF.. almost north of jamaica.. on this run

[vaffie]

00z GFDL is in...Further North!!!

Freeport, Texas bound.

So now we have GFS, which has moved well north to the TX/Mexico border, UKMET--Galveston?, NAM--heading northwest through the Channel, and GFDL--upper Texas bound. Let's just say today was a bad day here.

[Steve]

>>That image was 8p.m. or so it states on weather underground

"Initialized at 8pm EDT" = 00Z/00UTC

So that would be data from the models began at 7 Central last night and called the 00z runs. Still waiting for the rest, but I'm not staying up to see if the European continues the weaker, southerly track. I'll check that in the morning. Good nite all.

Steve

[hicksta]

Why do I sense excitement when the models present bad news
for the U.S.?
I mean come on now did everyone forget what Katrina and Rita already?
I sure hope not.

I don't think it is excitement. I think it is a sudden rush of fear that comes over us when we see something like this. The GFDL run tonight is what we hope doesn't happen. It is probably the worst case scenario I have seen for SE Texas so far.

True, but i would rather have the GFDL pointing at us right now than be in sabine pass or beaumont cause we all know how far off the models are 5-6 days off. Whats the avearge one hundred or so? SOmetimes the best place to be 5 days out is in the middle of the cone, butttt then sometimes its not haha

[TTheriot1975]

Did anyone verify UKMET? Have not seen any images yet

[PTrackerLA]

Why do I sense excitement when the models present bad news
for the U.S.?
I mean come on now did everyone forget what Katrina and Rita already?
I sure hope not.

I don't think it is excitement. I think it is a sudden rush of fear that comes over us when we see something like this. The GFDL run tonight is what we hope doesn't happen. It is probably the worst case scenario I have seen for SE Texas so far.

True, but i would rather have the GFDL pointing at us right now than be in sabine pass or beaumont cause we all know how far off the models are 5-6 days off. Whats the avearge one hundred or so? SOmetimes the best place to be 5 days out is in the middle of the cone, butttt then sometimes its not haha

Yeah even Louisiana too, I personally don't think it will come this far east but we're on the "bad" side of possible model shifts and Rita is pretty fresh on the mind.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...
BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...FRENCH RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE HELPED
LOCATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 90 MILES...140 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting. I can't wait to come back and ingest all the new data then. For now though, I am calling it a night..

[Aric Dunn]

look like a upper texas thing from the gfdl on this run





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

actually just looking at the loop.. it may even be a LA hit on this run
gfdl



here is the HWRF..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[hicksta]

Yeah even Louisiana too, I personally don't think it will come this far east but we're on the "bad" side of possible model shifts and Rita is pretty fresh on the mind.[/quote]

See thats what i keep thinking two, but you never know that might come back and bit me in the but if i keep saying ahh itl turn more right and go further up. Rita was once in a lifetime track and forcast. I remember they nailed ivan 5 days out. Lets just see how this happens in the next few days. All i know is come saturday and sunday at the boat dock i work at, it will either be busy with boats, or busy with plywood. Guess time will tell! Night yal.

[Steve]

If these tracks become more constant, the entirety of South Louisiana, and most of SE Texas will be on the road by Tuesday.

[PTrackerLA]

Almost looks like a due north movement at the end of that loop. Not good.

[TTheriot1975]

These models are all over the place....no agreement!!