CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

Eclipse is over http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... w&PROD=geo

I see a faint eye just NNW of Barbados!!! Looks MUCH better organized!

[TSmith274]

Guys, that UK model is seriously about to make me go into a nervous breakdown.

Should I worry? Seriously?

Models jump around. Just look at the trend. That really tells you all you need to know. It is what got me out of New Orleans before the heavy traffic started before Katrina. If I were in Houston, I'd be paying close attention. However, I still think this is a central TX coast storm. But like I said... nobody knows at this point... nobody.

[Thunder44]

New image after the eclispe:

[Aric Dunn]

yep look at that

[Aric Dunn]

[Thunder44]

Eclipse is over http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... w&PROD=geo

I see a faint eye just NNW of Barbados!!! Looks MUCH better organized!

I don't think that's the eye. Just a break in the clouds. It doesn't look much better than before the eclispe.

[Aric Dunn]

Eclipse is over http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... w&PROD=geo

I see a faint eye just NNW of Barbados!!! Looks MUCH better organized!

I don't think that's the eye. Just a break in the clouds. It doesn't look much better than before the eclispe.

that is where the center is.. it may be a warm spot.. which would be and eye .. its just clouded over

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eclipse is over http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... w&PROD=geo

I see a faint eye just NNW of Barbados!!! Looks MUCH better organized!

Actually, NRL had coverage from MET9 during the eclipse. This site had very poor blury coverage from I think might have been GOES West at the time:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Aric Dunn]

NOW thats more clear.. it is the eye.. and it does look better.. that large burst .. did take place during the eclipse. and what radar was show showing was correct and not a blurr spot lol ..

[Brent]

Eclipse is over http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... w&PROD=geo

I see a faint eye just NNW of Barbados!!! Looks MUCH better organized!

I don't think that's the eye. Just a break in the clouds. It doesn't look much better than before the eclispe.

that is where the center is.. it may be a warm spot.. which would be and eye .. its just clouded over

Yeah because it's right where the NHC had the center at 2am.

[EyELeSs1]

same here just a little rain now...max gust now 37mph and pressure down to 1009.8mb

[Aric Dunn]

thats right

[Brent]

[Aric Dunn]

OK hurricane force winds should be reaching the island of martinique anytime

radar become very impressive.. the eye wall much more noticeable with stronger convection around it

[Aric Dunn]

same here just a little rain now...max gust now 37mph and pressure down to 1009.8mb

not sure where you all are at.. but

you dont have much time until the hurricane force winds hit you if your in Martinique..

[thunderchief]

remember guys the model consensus still is calling for a yucatan track very similar to the GFS. nogaps canadian and euro are all a bit south.

[Thunder44]

345
WHXX01 KWBC 170645
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0645 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070817 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070817 0600 070817 1800 070818 0600 070818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 59.8W 15.0N 64.7W 15.2N 68.9W 15.4N 72.2W
BAMD 14.2N 59.8W 15.1N 63.2W 15.9N 66.4W 16.8N 69.4W
BAMM 14.2N 59.8W 15.0N 63.8W 15.5N 67.4W 16.1N 70.7W
LBAR 14.2N 59.8W 14.7N 63.6W 15.5N 67.6W 16.2N 71.5W
SHIP 85KTS 92KTS 99KTS 104KTS
DSHP 85KTS 92KTS 99KTS 104KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070819 0600 070820 0600 070821 0600 070822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 74.9W 16.6N 79.5W 19.5N 85.1W 22.6N 91.1W
BAMD 17.3N 72.4W 18.1N 79.0W 19.4N 85.5W 21.0N 91.4W
BAMM 16.5N 73.7W 17.2N 79.9W 18.7N 85.5W 21.0N 90.6W
LBAR 17.0N 75.0W 18.2N 80.9W 19.1N 85.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 111KTS 115KTS 123KTS 119KTS
DSHP 111KTS 115KTS 123KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 55.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 51.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN


6z Models still winds of 85kts and 976mb pressure.

[Scorpion]

Euro indicates quite a strong hurricane

[Aric Dunn]

[Scorpion]

People are thinking too much of this... its a Cat 2 its not supposed to look pretty. Steady intensification until Jamaica sounds about right.