CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[wxmann_91]

The differences between the S and the N track are in the prognostication of one ULL and one ridge over my head.

The GFS leaves the 500mb contours open as the ULL tracks inland. Meanwhile the ridge over the EPAC remains over there.

Without more detailed graphics, I cannot assume, but I will. The Euro does close off the ULL @ 500mb. I assume that the ULL moves northward and weakens, while the ridge over the EPAC builds east behind it... shoving Dean westward into oblivion.

[Evil Jeremy]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



EJ’s Forecasts
Hurricane Dean
Advisory 8 (Special)
3:30AMEST

Various Tropical Storm watches and warnings and a hurricane warning are in affect for parts of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and various other islands across the Caribbean. More watches and warnings will probably be issued later today.

I was expecting to be able to go to sleep tonight, but I was prompted to write a special advisory early this morning because of the new model runs, which incorporate information from the Gulfstream IV flight from yesterday. The next recon flight takes off in less than 2 hours from now.

Earlier today, the overall condition of Hurricane Dean started to deteriorate. So far tonight, the northern side of Dean has maintained a great outflow, but I can’t say the same thing about the southern part of Dean. The outflow of Dean’s southern side has been cut off, possibly from its proximity to Southern America. However, this has not changed its intensity, and Dean is still a moderate category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 MPH and an estimated pressure of 973 MB.

Dean is currently heading west at about 25 MPH. This westward motion should continue through the next few days followed by a general WNW and eventually NW heading in about 4-5 days.

After dean passes through the Lesser Antilles, the next major area of concern will be Jamaica. People in Jamaica should start preparing for a Category 3-4 direct strike.

The main reason for this new advisory early this morning is because of the new model runs and the Recon data. Many of the major models, including the GFDL and new HWRF, indicate that Dean will not actually make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, but instead it will skim its coast. Then the models take Dean WNW to NW into the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into northern Texas. My forecast cone has been adjusted as such, and is basically following the path of GFDL for the first few days, and then I have added in the latest runs of the HWRF and UKMET, along with a few other models into the mix after that. The reasoning for the sudden change is because the models are forecasting a slight weakness in the ridge keeping Dean south.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are going to fly into Dean twice today. Their data will be incorporated into my next forecast.

INITIAL 100 MPH
12HR 105 MPH
24HR 110 MPH
48HR 115 MPH
72HR 125 MPH
96HR 135 MPH
120HR 115 MPH

[weatherman0518]

Interesting forecast Evil Jeremy Thanks for your input

[TampaFl]

[weatherman0518]

TampaFL where did u find this image? can i possibly get the link? I appreciate it!

[RL3AO]

555
WTNT24 KNHC 170830
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 60.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




556
WTNT34 KNHC 170830
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR IN THE ST. LUCIA
CHANNEL BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WHILE BARBADOS HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[crazycajuncane]

The million dollar question

Where is Dean headed after his trip through the carribean?

[weatherwindow]

Edit:

Radar showing likely eye pass on southern Martinique. South Martinique should recieve hard side of storm barring any sudden track shifts.

(Radar never lies)

just checking the stormcarib tool...based on 1100pm advisory track..the center of dean is projected to pass 14.5 mi south of martinique....no accounting for wobbles however....as of this writing the 500am adv puts it in the st lucia channel due south of martinique...radius of hurricane winds is 25 miles.....now is the time for the residents of martinique....be safe......rich

[abajan]

First of all, I'm okay here but thanks for your concern.

The wind is really starting to pick up now (I'm a bit uncertain about its direction but when last I checked our airport was reporting it to be out of the SSW) and the gusts are definitely above the tropical storm threshold. I'm not sure when they started to increase but I had to 'hit the sack' around 10:45 PM because I was really sleepy. Yet I was aware of the wind's sound whilst sleeping. In fact, it's that that woke me.

There's hardly any rain to speak of, though. And from the appearance of the ground, much didn't fall overnight either.

I'll keep you posted (so long as the power isn't shut off - our power company usually cuts power when winds reach 60 mph.)

BTW, since when did this map update every 3 hours?

[EyELeSs1]

pressure is around 1009mb. highest wind so far has been 39mph and still not 2 much rain yet.

[caribepr]

This is the 3 am report from the NWS, concerning Culebra, Puerto Rico, USVI's & BVI's
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-171000-
BULLETIN-
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...CENTER OF DEAN TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM...MAXIMUM SEAS OF 14 TO 18 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 2 AM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM AST...HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH
LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST...AROUND 465 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
CROIX...510 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...570 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN AND AROUND 590 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PONCE. DEAN WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR
100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO FINALIZE PREPARATIONS FOR
DEAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY AND LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND PASSAGES...AND VERY
HIGH SURF ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT.
...WINDS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS IN THE 39 TO 45 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY. AS
DEAN CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT CROIX CARIBBEAN WATERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BY MID MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO WATERS. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN
POWER LINES MAINLY OVER SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL LOCAL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES
OF HURRICANE DEAN SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF DEAN PASSES SOUTH OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR
SECTORS. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE SAINT CROIX WATERS WILL BE REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH 34 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND MID
DAY FRIDAY CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO WATERS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 40 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS HURRICANE DEAN PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...REACHING 14 TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE
THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH SATURDAY. PERSONS
ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THE DANGEROUS SURF.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND COULD MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COASTS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 AM AST
FRIDAY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.
$$

[KatDaddy]

Dean's future path becoming very omnious to TX and LA.

Hard to imagine a 145G180MPH hurricane in the W Central GOM turning more N toward the Middle TX Coast.

Time to start getting ready eveyone.

The Houston-Galveston areas and points SW toward Corpus Christi were extremely lucky with Rita. We may not get that lucky this time.

[westcoastfl]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 170853
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT

$$

[KatDaddy]

Latest forecast path as of 5AM has Dean headed in a more N movement toward the Lower TX Coast. Looking more and more like a TX and even SW LA threat. I expect the mass hysteria will start in the Houston-Galveston areas today due to last nights newscasts and Erins flooding rains.

[EyELeSs1]

wish Aric was still here to post his radar animations

[Normandy]

I think the radar is down....

[EyELeSs1]

i'm still getting images



Martinique is about to get slammed

[Hurricane Cheese]

I would need to see a few more model runs before I would "panic"


...If they are still trending north in 24-48 hours, then it will be time to be getting concerned...

[USTropics]

TampaFL where did u find this image? can i possibly get the link? I appreciate it!

Go here. Then click "Storm Tracking" to the left.

[KatDaddy]

Never panic. Just start initial preparation. Time to be the rush for food, water, and propane. After Rita people will prepare very earlier. Water is already flying off the shelfs as of yesterday.