CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Toadstool]

Ladies and gentlemen, Dean has officially entered the Caribbean Sea, it's all downhill from here.

Do you think Dean has heard of the phrase "Don't mess with Texas?"

[EyELeSs1]

Moving offshore. I'm gonna hit the sack for a bit...bbl

[ExBailbonds]

North american 500 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

[Nimbus]

89 mph gust reported at Martinique. At least Dean is moving fast should start calming down by this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

Ragged eyewall brushed south tip of Martinique in that radar. Bet we get some reports as the day goes on. Dean stays overwater through channel and continues into east Caribbean uninterrupted.

Back to bed...

[KWT]

Its about where it was on the 0z run in terms of eventual landfall just south of Texas border, though its faster then the 0z run by a good 12hrs.

[EyELeSs1]

Visible is in

[ExBailbonds]

I pretty sure that is a tad south of were the 00z had it going in.

[Meso]

Yeah maybe,Last run I saw was 18z I think.. Seems about the same area as 00z though

[caneman]

lookied about 60 miles`North to me, right on the border

[Thunder44]

739
URNT15 KNHC 171021
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 07 20070817
101400 1545N 06239W 6965 03183 0086 +089 +060 071048 049 032 004 00
101430 1544N 06237W 6967 03175 0090 +083 +075 073050 051 032 004 00
101500 1543N 06236W 6963 03181 0094 +077 +077 071051 051 032 004 00
101530 1542N 06235W 6967 03178 0086 +084 +081 071051 052 035 005 00
101600 1541N 06234W 6968 03174 0080 +087 +085 073053 054 036 004 00
101630 1540N 06233W 6965 03178 0074 +091 +085 071052 053 035 005 00
101700 1539N 06232W 6963 03180 0080 +086 +086 076053 053 040 008 00
101730 1538N 06231W 6947 03197 0092 +066 +066 062043 047 047 020 05
101800 1537N 06229W 6987 03149 0090 +066 +066 059047 049 046 042 05
101830 1535N 06228W 6962 03177 0089 +077 +077 063049 053 042 005 00
101900 1534N 06227W 6965 03173 0088 +079 +079 068049 050 044 005 00
101930 1533N 06226W 6964 03176 0089 +078 +078 068051 053 043 005 00
102000 1532N 06225W 6964 03174 0079 +085 +076 067054 054 042 005 00
102030 1531N 06224W 6960 03177 0078 +085 +075 066055 056 039 004 00
102100 1530N 06222W 6965 03169 0078 +083 +079 065057 058 040 004 00
102130 1529N 06221W 6965 03166 0079 +081 +081 064056 058 044 004 00
102200 1528N 06220W 6959 03172 0070 +086 +078 063055 056 045 004 00
102230 1527N 06219W 6969 03160 0067 +090 +066 065059 060 045 004 00
102300 1526N 06218W 6963 03169 0068 +088 +054 065060 060 044 004 00
102330 1524N 06217W 6965 03161 0066 +089 +049 065060 060 041 004 00
$$

Air Force Plane on Route now. It's currently 56 miles SW of Guadeloupe

[KWT]

Yeah it was a bit south upto about 138hrs then it takes something of a NW jog between 138-144hrs which makes landfall point about the same, maybe a tiny tiny amount south but nothing more then 0.1-0.2 degrees South.

[pojo]

We are in St. Croix.... the winds have picked up , there have been a few sprinkles so far this morning... winds are 04015KT25G

[Cookiely]

I'd like to know what possibly could happen to Dean and synoptics that could possibly send this into west central Florida? Why would they add this possiblility to the discussion and then say its highly unlikely. I think the odds are like winning the lottery for Dean to come to Florida.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 170659
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WITH LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...ONE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIN IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...LOOKS LIKE WE CAN THANK ERIN FOR
KEEPING DEAN AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST...ASSUMING PRESENT PLAYERS
BEHAVE AS EXPECTED. THE WEAKNESS FORMED IN THE DEEP LAYERED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
ALLOWING THE TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. THUS IT SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE COURSE OF DEAN.

FOR OUR WEATHER HOWEVER...TODAY WE`LL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT IT`S AUGUST IN FLORIDA...CANNOT RULE
OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. LAST NIGHT HAD QUITE A
BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.
WITH THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE
ABLE BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AS WELL AS FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BRINGING MOSTLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE THOUGH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. AGAIN WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GIVEN LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW.

BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE AREA
WILL TAP INTO SOME MORE MOISTURE. EXPECT A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW
AS GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND DEAN COMING
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASES. THUS HAVE BEST POPS RIGHT
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT STILL SCATTERED COVERAGE ALL
LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL EACH MORNING BUT
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EACH AFTERNOON GIVEN BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...SIMILAR TO MY EXTENDED
DISCUSSION LAST NIGHT: OVERALL STATE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A TAD HOT BUT WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE SURFACE HUMIDITY. OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE...IN THE FORM OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE.

SYNOPTICALLY...GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS AND TROPICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING DEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THEN A FEW DIFFERENCES
APPEAR...MAINLY DUE TO HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE CUTOFF COOL-CORE
LOW...NOW RETROGRADING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BUT EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO HEAD ALL THE WAY TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY...HAS ON TRYING
TO DRAW THE CYCLONE A BIT FARTHER NORTH.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...WITH EVENTUAL LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. WHILE THESE AREAS LIKELY
DEAL WITH YET ANOTHER SIGNFICANT RAIN EVENT IN A YEAR FULL OF
THEM...THE FLORIDA SUNCOAST WILL ONLY FEEL THE HEAT FROM A STEADY
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL EITHER PIN THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST OR
NOT ALL IT TO SET UP AT ALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SO...FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. EXPECT
CLEAR OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EACH AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL SCOOT QUICKLY INTO THE GULF EACH EVENING BEFORE THINGS SETTLE
DOWN...PROBABLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT EVERYWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EACH AFTERNOON...KEEPING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR NORMAL (98-100). UNDER AZURE BLUE
SKIES...NEXT WEEK MIGHT BE A GREAT TIME FOR THE BEACH...UNLESS SOMETHING
UNFORESEEN HAPPENS WITH DEAN (HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE).

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE WE EXPECTED A LATER EVENT (AFTER 20Z)
YESTERDAY...THE SURPRISE WAS THE VIGOR OF LAST NIGHT`S STORMS ACROSS

[ExBailbonds]

No check again it just a very small tad south

00z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 68_m.shtml

[pojo]

Yes they are in route... I watched it take off this morning. They are early.

We had SATCOM problems with the plane during pre-flight... hopefully, we don't have problems in the storm. Different Plane.

[jlauderdal]

Some things i wanna point out in the 5am discussion.... this is not to alarm anyone but to notify so read the whole report its very interesting....


000
WTNT44 KNHC 170853
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Its been very straightforward so far and will be until 72H and that is when subtle differences are showing up, the problem is that a 1/2 degree here or there when you have a turn makes a big difference on eventual landfall out in time. Think about your geometry courses folks.

[Toadstool]

I'd like to know what possibly could happen to Dean and synoptics that could possibly send this into west central Florida? Why would they add this possiblility to the discussion and then say its highly unlikely. I think the odds are like winning the lottery for Dean to come to Florida.

Unfortunately, everything NHC posts is in all caps which means I (and most people) don't read it, because it's annoying. If you highlight in bold the area you are concerned about we can comment. I don't think they are forecasting it coming anywhere near Florida though.

[cycloneye]

599
URNT15 KNHC 171032
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 08 20070817
102400 1523N 06216W 6964 03163 0069 +086 +053 062059 059 041 005 00
102430 1522N 06215W 6963 03166 0068 +084 +064 062058 059 044 004 00
102500 1521N 06213W 6963 03160 0066 +084 +070 062055 056 044 004 00
102530 1520N 06212W 6967 03159 0065 +084 +080 065053 054 046 005 00
102600 1519N 06211W 6964 03160 0065 +085 +076 067053 053 048 004 00
102630 1518N 06210W 6961 03166 0059 +090 +065 066051 051 048 004 00
102700 1517N 06209W 6968 03156 0056 +091 +064 067053 054 048 004 00
102730 1515N 06208W 6966 03157 0057 +090 +069 066056 056 047 005 00
102800 1514N 06206W 6967 03153 0051 +093 +068 067055 056 048 004 00
102830 1513N 06205W 6961 03158 0053 +090 +072 067055 055 047 004 00
102900 1512N 06204W 6965 03152 0046 +094 +064 067054 055 046 005 00
102930 1511N 06203W 6967 03149 0046 +094 +071 068053 055 044 004 00
103000 1510N 06202W 6957 03160 0053 +084 +084 070053 054 043 005 00
103030 1509N 06201W 6967 03146 0047 +089 +084 067054 056 040 006 00
103100 1508N 06200W 6961 03151 0050 +084 +084 067057 058 043 005 00
103130 1507N 06159W 6964 03145 0048 +085 +084 067057 057 043 005 00
103200 1506N 06157W 6966 03141 0048 +083 +083 066058 059 041 005 00
103230 1504N 06156W 6963 03144 0041 +085 +085 068062 063 039 004 00
103300 1503N 06155W 6964 03140 0031 +090 +086 067062 064 038 005 00
103330 1502N 06154W 6971 03128 0033 +087 +087 069060 061 039 008 03
$$



64kts