CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[TampaFl]

5:00AM Position.

[HURAKAN]

Looks impressive on visible.

[ExBailbonds]

Its been very straightforward so far and will be until 72H and that is when subtle differences are showing up, the problem is that a 1/2 degree here or there when you have a turn makes a big difference on eventual landfall out in time. Think about your geometry courses folks.

Very True an well said

[NCSUwpack]

I'd like to know what possibly could happen to Dean and synoptics that could possibly send this into west central Florida? Why would they add this possiblility to the discussion and then say its highly unlikely. I think the odds are like winning the lottery for Dean to come to Florida.

Unfortunately, everything NHC posts is in all caps which means I (and most people) don't read it, because it's annoying. If you highlight in bold the area you are concerned about we can comment. I don't think they are forecasting it coming anywhere near Florida though.

I was wondering if I was the only one that just flys by the post with all caps that long.

[USTropics]

Its been very straightforward so far and will be until 72H and that is when subtle differences are showing up, the problem is that a 1/2 degree here or there when you have a turn makes a big difference on eventual landfall out in time. Think about your geometry courses folks.

It makes a world of a difference in two ways. The less it spends over the Yucatan Peninsula, the stronger it will be in the GOM. Also, depending on if the upper-level low moves west towards Texas or northwest towards the northwestern GOM, it could change landfall a bit more north. I think the models will continue to slightly move more to the right with a weaker then expected ridge to the north of Dean confirmed by recon.

[cycloneye]

001
URNT15 KNHC 171041
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 09 20070817
103400 1501N 06153W 6964 03134 0040 +081 +081 069060 062 039 006 00
103430 1500N 06152W 6957 03143 0040 +078 +078 065064 065 039 017 00
103500 1459N 06151W 6969 03124 0029 +086 +086 065065 066 043 006 00
103530 1458N 06150W 6960 03134 0027 +088 +088 065065 066 052 005 00
103600 1457N 06149W 6969 03124 0024 +087 +087 063067 068 052 005 00
103630 1456N 06148W 6966 03128 0017 +092 +092 063064 065 049 005 00
103700 1454N 06147W 6962 03132 0007 +101 +086 063061 062 050 005 00
103730 1453N 06146W 6967 03125 0002 +105 +080 064062 063 050 004 00
103800 1452N 06144W 6963 03125 9997 +107 +076 063060 061 051 007 00
103830 1451N 06143W 6967 03123 9990 +111 +079 062060 062 055 006 00
103900 1450N 06142W 6967 03118 9989 +109 +081 063061 063 057 006 00
103930 1448N 06141W 6972 03108 9987 +107 +086 063065 065 058 006 00
104000 1447N 06140W 6963 03117 9977 +111 +090 065066 068 058 006 00
104030 1446N 06139W 6960 03112 9967 +114 +082 065067 067 058 007 00
104100 1445N 06138W 6963 03101 9964 +113 +090 062068 068 058 007 00
104130 1444N 06137W 6969 03091 9976 +098 +095 064069 072 058 008 00
104200 1442N 06136W 6961 03098 9970 +097 +097 066073 074 060 008 00
104230 1441N 06135W 6960 03090 9963 +096 +096 065075 076 059 007 00
104300 1440N 06134W 6966 03075 9951 +098 +098 061072 073 061 005 00
104330 1439N 06133W 6957 03079 9932 +106 +106 060076 077 062 005 00
$$


77 kts

[abajan]

Jamaica had better prepare itself because over the years I too have noticed this strange Barbados/Jamaica connection.

[Nimbus]

From 5AM discussion:

THEN A FEW DIFFERENCES
APPEAR...MAINLY DUE TO HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE CUTOFF COOL-CORE
LOW...NOW RETROGRADING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BUT EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO HEAD ALL THE WAY TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY...HAS ON TRYING
TO DRAW THE CYCLONE A BIT FARTHER NORTH.

You can see the ULL in the WV imagery getting under the eastern edge of the big plains ridge currently centered over Texas. The ULL should roll SW or WSW as forecast. This is a classic setup, The ULL slows the high that Dean is building under. Dean moves toward the west side of its high pressure dome and starts to pick up guidance from the clockwise circulation.

This is not an easy scenario to model because of the dynamic nature of the variables. There are two ridge axis involved and the strength of Dean will determine the size of the high pressure dome that he is traveling under. You can't put much weight on the model runs yet.

[Sabanic]

Everyone on the Gulf Coast needs to watch closely. From Texas to Ms, and as far east as AL/FL Panhandle. The discussion is stating that after 72 hours they are having some problems with track. At that time Dean should be in the Central to Western Carribean under Cuba, which basically means that there are alot of different scenarios that could take place with a long way to go before any landfall, and alot of water to move around in.

[perk]

Dean's future path becoming very omnious to TX and LA.

Hard to imagine a 145G180MPH hurricane in the W Central GOM turning more N toward the Middle TX Coast.

Time to start getting ready eveyone.

The Houston-Galveston areas and points SW toward Corpus Christi were extremely lucky with Rita. We may not get that lucky this time.

Yeah KatDaddy info from that GIV flight indicated the high may be a little weaker than first thought, and they've nudged that track to the north some. By the way i know you and your family went trough a horrible ordeal evacuating for Rita, how will you handle it this time if necessary.

[HURAKAN]

The Sun making Dean easier to look at!!!

[cycloneye]

UZNT13 KNHC 171027
XXAA 67107 99157 70626 04352 99008 27841 03533 00073 27242 04034
92758 21418 06041 85488 16410 07057 70124 08603 07555 88999 77999
31313 09608 81015
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 03
62626 SPL 1567N06262W 1019 MBL WND 04536 AEV 00000 DLM WND 06048
008750 WL150 04033 075 =
XXBB 67108 99157 70626 04352 00008 27841 11850 16410 22696 08403
21212 00008 03533 11976 05038 22920 06039 33875 06554 44850 07057
55696 07554
31313 09608 81015
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 03
62626 SPL 1567N06262W 1019 MBL WND 04536 AEV 00000 DLM WND 06048
008750 WL150 04033 075 =

[Thunder44]

380
URNT15 KNHC 171051
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 10 20070817
104400 1438N 06132W 6969 03060 9921 +107 +101 059078 080 060 006 00
104430 1437N 06131W 6961 03054 9908 +109 +093 061079 081 058 009 00
104500 1436N 06130W 6968 03038 9919 +093 +093 062082 083 059 050 03
104530 1434N 06129W 6960 03035 9894 +103 +103 056080 083 062 044 03
104600 1433N 06128W 6959 03028 9899 +088 +088 057071 074 061 017 03
104630 1432N 06127W 6966 03009 9893 +081 +081 061072 072 062 048 03
104700 1431N 06126W 6965 02994 9854 +101 +101 057074 075 063 007 03
104730 1429N 06125W 6966 02976 9820 +110 +110 054071 072 067 010 00
104800 1428N 06124W 6961 02955 9786 +117 +117 046066 068 072 010 00
104830 1426N 06123W 6971 02919 9740 +137 +137 047060 064 072 009 00
104900 1425N 06122W 6960 02913 9690 +165 +117 039045 050 067 007 03
104930 1424N 06120W 6972 02879 9685 +153 +110 033034 039 054 005 03
105000 1423N 06119W 6969 02879 9685 +143 +121 059013 018 026 005 03
105030 1422N 06117W 6966 02880 9693 +136 +117 121004 006 013 005 00
105100 1421N 06116W 6969 02891 9702 +139 +110 203011 016 027 006 03
105130 1419N 06115W 6968 02898 9710 +139 +123 212026 034 052 007 03
105200 1418N 06113W 6960 02927 9747 +123 +123 212046 052 064 018 00
105230 1417N 06112W 6974 02932 9990 +085 +999 210068 075 071 024 05
105300 1416N 06111W 6980 02946 9990 +066 +999 201080 083 068 032 01
105330 1415N 06110W 6946 03010 9885 +073 +073 203075 076 071 018 01
$$

83kts

[USTropics]

Early vis images just coming in.

[TampaFl]

FSU MM5 500MB 00Z Aug 17 120 HR Run: (Notice ULL move over S. Fl towards S. Texas. Will update when new run comes out).



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/h500.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[ExBailbonds]

Yes it is very easy to get side tracked by the model runs when they are consistant like that for a few runs. But we should all know that they can and will most likley change.

[cycloneye]

616
URNT15 KNHC 171101
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 11 20070817
105400 1414N 06109W 6957 03013 9892 +081 +081 199072 074 069 051 03
105430 1413N 06108W 6981 03001 9990 +058 +999 196072 075 066 024 01
105500 1412N 06107W 6956 03043 9932 +072 +072 198067 068 059 044 03
105530 1411N 06106W 6967 03042 9922 +093 +093 198064 065 058 009 00
105600 1410N 06105W 6964 03057 9933 +093 +093 200064 064 054 006 00
105630 1409N 06104W 6967 03061 9944 +092 +092 198062 063 052 006 00
105700 1408N 06103W 6962 03072 9950 +092 +092 203059 061 054 007 00
105730 1406N 06101W 6968 03071 9953 +097 +097 203054 056 051 006 00
105800 1405N 06100W 6961 03086 9964 +094 +094 205052 053 051 006 00
105830 1404N 06059W 6964 03086 9974 +090 +090 207053 053 062 000 00
105900 1403N 06058W 6963 03058 9950 +089 +089 207055 057 108 009 03
105930 1402N 06057W 6952 03021 9930 +068 +068 206051 052 999 999 05
110000 1401N 06056W 6955 02974 9990 +061 +999 205060 063 999 999 05
110030 1400N 06055W 6965 02863 9717 +066 +066 204060 061 999 999 05
110100 1359N 06054W 6963 02941 9860 +068 +068 205059 060 999 999 03
110130 1358N 06052W 6965 03105 0018 +073 +073 205058 058 085 000 03
110200 1356N 06051W 6963 03112 0007 +085 +085 208055 057 066 021 03
110230 1355N 06050W 6960 03119 9990 +066 +999 206050 055 057 026 01
110300 1354N 06049W 6953 03127 9990 +062 +999 204052 052 058 022 01
110330 1353N 06048W 6975 03100 9990 +059 +999 204051 053 054 023 01
$$

[Thunder44]

7am ob in Martinique, no wind report, aneometer may be down.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... 78925.html

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 171105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/10:50:30Z
B. 14 deg 22 min N
061 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb 2841 m
D. 72 kt
E. 313 deg 008 nm
F. 064 deg 083 kt
G. 318 deg 018 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 17 C/ 3060 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E07/17/15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NW QUAD 10:45:00 Z