CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171231
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 20 20070817
122400 1447N 06115W 6955 03126 9990 +059 +999 146075 076 055 020 01
122430 1445N 06117W 6958 03118 0025 +065 +065 146072 072 059 053 05
122500 1444N 06118W 6962 03111 0018 +076 +076 147070 071 059 049 03
122530 1443N 06119W 6969 03102 0020 +071 +071 148070 071 056 035 03
122600 1442N 06120W 6963 03102 0019 +067 +067 143072 073 057 016 03
122630 1442N 06122W 6961 03097 0009 +069 +069 143068 069 061 019 01
122700 1441N 06124W 6968 03090 9990 +062 +999 150075 076 060 022 05
122730 1440N 06124W 6959 03092 9989 +073 +073 150076 078 062 019 03
122800 1439N 06126W 6949 03093 9980 +071 +071 148076 079 062 045 05
122830 1438N 06127W 6962 03077 9990 +068 +999 145080 082 058 021 01
122900 1437N 06128W 6979 03048 9977 +071 +071 148086 087 060 043 03
122930 1436N 06129W 6958 03064 9982 +057 +057 152088 090 060 055 05
123000 1435N 06131W 6968 03044 9964 +061 +061 153092 093 999 999 05
123030 1434N 06132W 6966 03035 9948 +065 +065 151093 094 063 020 00
123100 1433N 06133W 6952 03037 9938 +064 +064 152088 094 066 033 01
123130 1432N 06134W 6956 03026 9990 +067 +999 155086 087 074 023 01
123200 1431N 06136W 6970 02990 9990 +059 +999 154089 091 074 027 01
123230 1431N 06137W 6965 02978 9990 +058 +999 156096 099 075 045 01
123300 1430N 06138W 6951 02972 9823 +075 +075 163098 101 076 043 05
123330 1429N 06140W 6973 02929 9792 +103 +103 168095 097 086 034 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:31Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 20
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:24:00 14.78N 61.25W 695.5 mb 3,126 m - From 146° (SE/SSE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 55 kts 20 mm/hr
12:24:30 14.75N 61.28W 695.8 mb 3,118 m 1002.5 mb From 146° (SE/SSE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 59 kts* 53 mm/hr*
12:25:00 14.73N 61.30W 696.2 mb 3,111 m 1001.8 mb From 147° (SSE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 59 kts* 49 mm/hr*
12:25:30 14.72N 61.32W 696.9 mb 3,102 m 1002.0 mb From 148° (SSE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 56 kts* 35 mm/hr*
12:26:00 14.70N 61.33W 696.3 mb 3,102 m 1001.9 mb From 143° (SE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 57 kts* 16 mm/hr*
12:26:30 14.70N 61.37W 696.1 mb 3,097 m 1000.9 mb From 143° (SE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 61 kts 19 mm/hr
12:27:00 14.68N 61.40W 696.8 mb 3,090 m - From 150° (SSE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 60 kts* 22 mm/hr*
12:27:30 14.67N 61.40W 695.9 mb 3,092 m 998.9 mb From 150° (SSE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 62 kts* 19 mm/hr*
12:28:00 14.65N 61.43W 694.9 mb 3,093 m 998.0 mb From 148° (SSE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 79 kts (~ 90.8 mph) 62 kts* 45 mm/hr*
12:28:30 14.63N 61.45W 696.2 mb 3,077 m - From 145° (SE) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 82 kts (~ 94.3 mph) 58 kts 21 mm/hr
12:29:00 14.62N 61.47W 697.9 mb 3,048 m 997.7 mb From 148° (SSE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 60 kts* 43 mm/hr*
12:29:30 14.60N 61.48W 695.8 mb 3,064 m 998.2 mb From 152° (SSE) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 90 kts (~ 103.5 mph) 60 kts* 55 mm/hr*
12:30:00 14.58N 61.52W 696.8 mb 3,044 m 996.4 mb From 153° (SSE) at 92 kts (105.8 mph) 93 kts (~ 106.9 mph) - -
12:30:30 14.57N 61.53W 696.6 mb 3,035 m 994.8 mb From 151° (SSE) at 93 kts (106.9 mph) 94 kts (~ 108.1 mph) 63 kts 20 mm/hr
12:31:00 14.55N 61.55W 695.2 mb 3,037 m 993.8 mb From 152° (SSE) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 94 kts (~ 108.1 mph) 66 kts 33 mm/hr
12:31:30 14.53N 61.57W 695.6 mb 3,026 m - From 155° (SSE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 74 kts 23 mm/hr
12:32:00 14.52N 61.60W 697.0 mb 2,990 m - From 154° (SSE) at 89 kts (102.3 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 74 kts 27 mm/hr
12:32:30 14.52N 61.62W 696.5 mb 2,978 m - From 156° (SSE) at 96 kts (110.4 mph) 99 kts (~ 113.8 mph) 75 kts 45 mm/hr
12:33:00 14.50N 61.63W 695.1 mb 2,972 m 982.3 mb From 163° (SSE) at 98 kts (112.7 mph) 101 kts (~ 116.1 mph) 76 kts* 43 mm/hr*
12:33:30 14.48N 61.67W 697.3 mb 2,929 m 979.2 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 97 kts (~ 111.5 mph) 86 kts 34 mm/hr
At 12:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 17 miles (27 km) to the NW (317°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 12:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 41 miles (65 km) between the WSW and W (258°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .63c-61.67

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

High winds

[WmE]

Wow T5.0/5.0 is IMO the highest you can get with a CDO pattern.

[Janie2006]

You said it, Frank. Everyone I know is at least aware of Dean and more than a few are closely watching.

The model guidance has shifted a bit north overnight, which I thought might happen. I think some of the models are reflecting uncertainty about the strength of the SE ridge. IMO, the ridge overhead right now will determine the story. If it slides to the east or weakens, look out.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:33:00 14.50N 61.63W 695.1 mb 2,972 m 982.3 mb From 163° (SSE) at 98 kts (112.7 mph) 101 kts (~ 116.1 mph) 76 kts* 43 mm/hr*
Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

Observation was 38 miles (61 km) to the W (260°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

Still approaching center.

[Stormcenter]

You've got to go with the majority here and they point to a lower Texas problem at the
moment. I think the GFDL may be out to lunch this time around. We shall see.

[otowntiger]

Sustained at 20 and gusting to 89? That not very impressive at all considering thats where the strongest part of this system is. I'm glad for the islands that this thing didn't bomb like everyone was thinking before it hit them.

Sounds like it did bomb, meaning it didn't perform to expectations. I agree it's good it bombed.

I know that in some circumstances the word "bomb" means to fail, as in to 'bomb out'. But around here when talking about a hurricane when one says 'bomb' they mean that it undergoes rapid intensification. As we can see it didn't do that, thankfully for the islands.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!

[ronjon]

A point to remember - nearly all recent major hurricanes forecasted in the 3-5 day time frame (i.e. Ivan, Katrina, Rita) were much further east than their 3-5 day projected paths. Add in climatology to reenforce that trend. In addition, this summer thus far we had many troughs weaken the ridges so persistence of a strong ridge would be a relatively new wrinkle in the atmospheric pattern. I'm not saying this will not be a southern tracker but we have to remember there is some uncertainty this far out as noted in the 5 am NHC discussion.

We will just have to wait and see, if it took a sharp turn east and headed for MS, AL or FL, I would be extremely suprised due to the upper ridge over the east coast.

I agree a sharp turn that might be associated with a mid-latitude trough similar to Charley is not the synoptic set up. Think of it as rounding the western edge of the ridge. Of course, the ULL creating a weakness in the 300 mb pattern (which more strongly influences CAT 4 or 5 storms) adds a whole different dimension. If that ULL stalls in the central GOM, then an opening would exist between that feature and the upper level ridge to the east. This might lead to a northerly turn in the eastern or east-central GOM. This is not currently forecasted so I think the chance is low but not remote. Until the models have a better handle on the evolving upper air pattern, we won't know with more certainty until a couple more days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

You've got to go with the majority here and they point to a lower Texas problem at the
moment. I think the GFDL may be out to lunch this time around. We shall see.

Ive been in bed with the GFDL since it predicted the sw bend in Katrina thru FL...I would have never bought that..Since then its been pretty golden..

[canegrl04]

Turned on CNN this morning.Their update for Dean: Tuesday projection has him entering the YC as cat 4

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NRL imagery closer up:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg

Great visible loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[Janie2006]

You've got to go with the majority here and they point to a lower Texas problem at the
moment. I think the GFDL may be out to lunch this time around. We shall see.

Originally the GFDL was the outlier, or so it seems to me. However this morning I notice that the UKMET is following suit. I'm not setting off alarms over this particular spaghetti graph, but I am watching for possible trends while keeping my eye on the synoptic set-up for early next week.

[Flakeys]

Report from Bloomberg.com http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aA.u_RanchBk&refer=canada

[HouTXmetro]

Slow down was expected

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171241
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 21 20070817
123400 1429N 06141W 6970 02899 9735 +119 +119 173078 086 087 039 03
123430 1428N 06143W 6976 02869 9691 +135 +135 168054 064 082 009 03
123500 1428N 06144W 6969 02860 9668 +140 +124 165037 041 064 007 00
123530 1427N 06146W 6967 02856 9652 +148 +118 169023 026 038 007 03
123600 1427N 06148W 6956 02865 9643 +150 +112 154013 017 027 005 03
123630 1426N 06150W 6969 02844 9639 +153 +107 075008 010 018 006 00
123700 1426N 06152W 6961 02854 9631 +163 +103 014011 012 011 006 00
123730 1425N 06153W 6970 02863 9653 +156 +108 352020 022 014 006 03
123800 1426N 06154W 6963 02864 9653 +153 +108 013018 021 999 999 03
123830 1427N 06153W 6964 02844 9632 +155 +115 060014 016 022 006 03
123900 1428N 06151W 6959 02848 9634 +152 +112 099015 019 012 006 03
123930 1429N 06150W 6964 02842 9635 +148 +116 126025 027 017 005 00
124000 1431N 06149W 6963 02852 9642 +150 +105 127033 037 033 006 00
124030 1432N 06148W 6969 02852 9668 +144 +106 129047 051 043 007 03
124100 1432N 06146W 6984 02872 9687 +148 +113 135048 051 999 999 03
124130 1431N 06148W 6941 02890 9655 +147 +116 129039 041 047 007 03
124200 1430N 06149W 6939 02880 9645 +143 +118 132032 034 034 006 00
124230 1428N 06150W 6946 02865 9632 +155 +101 134019 022 022 006 00
124300 1427N 06151W 6935 02882 9632 +157 +105 137012 013 017 006 03
124330 1426N 06152W 6945 02873 9639 +151 +113 228003 008 012 006 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:41Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 21
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:34:00 14.48N 61.68W 697.0 mb 2,899 m 973.5 mb From 173° (S) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 86 kts (~ 98.9 mph) 87 kts* 39 mm/hr*
12:34:30 14.47N 61.72W 697.6 mb 2,869 m 969.1 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 82 kts* 9 mm/hr*
12:35:00 14.47N 61.73W 696.9 mb 2,860 m 966.8 mb From 165° (SSE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 64 kts 7 mm/hr
12:35:30 14.45N 61.77W 696.7 mb 2,856 m 965.2 mb From 169° (S) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 38 kts* 7 mm/hr*
12:36:00 14.45N 61.80W 695.6 mb 2,865 m 964.3 mb From 154° (SSE) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 27 kts* 5 mm/hr*
12:36:30 14.43N 61.83W 696.9 mb 2,844 m 963.9 mb From 75° (ENE) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 18 kts 6 mm/hr
12:37:00 14.43N 61.87W 696.1 mb 2,854 m 963.1 mb From 14° (NNE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 11 kts 6 mm/hr
12:37:30 14.42N 61.88W 697.0 mb 2,863 m 965.3 mb From 352° (N) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 14 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:38:00 14.43N 61.90W 696.3 mb 2,864 m 965.3 mb From 13° (NNE) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
12:38:30 14.45N 61.88W 696.4 mb 2,844 m 963.2 mb From 60° (ENE) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 22 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:39:00 14.47N 61.85W 695.9 mb 2,848 m 963.4 mb From 99° (E) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 12 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:39:30 14.48N 61.83W 696.4 mb 2,842 m 963.5 mb From 126° (SE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 17 kts 5 mm/hr
12:40:00 14.52N 61.82W 696.3 mb 2,852 m 964.2 mb From 127° (SE) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
12:40:30 14.53N 61.80W 696.9 mb 2,852 m 966.8 mb From 129° (SE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 43 kts* 7 mm/hr*
12:41:00 14.53N 61.77W 698.4 mb 2,872 m 968.7 mb From 135° (SE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) - -
12:41:30 14.52N 61.80W 694.1 mb 2,890 m 965.5 mb From 129° (SE) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 47 kts* 7 mm/hr*
12:42:00 14.50N 61.82W 693.9 mb 2,880 m 964.5 mb From 132° (SE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
12:42:30 14.47N 61.83W 694.6 mb 2,865 m 963.2 mb From 134° (SE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 22 kts 6 mm/hr
12:43:00 14.45N 61.85W 693.5 mb 2,882 m 963.2 mb From 137° (SE) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 17 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:43:30 14.43N 61.87W 694.5 mb 2,873 m 963.9 mb From 228° (SW) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) 12 kts* 6 mm/hr*
At 12:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 41 miles (66 km) to the W (259°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 12:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 54 miles (88 km) between the WSW and W (258°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .85c-61.87

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

Wait for vortex for verification of this pressure. These are extaploated and can be wrong.

[ronjon]

Does anyone have the 06Z HWRF model output yet? If we see this model more north, then I think we might have a more solid trend in the long term direction of this storm.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow is i dont know if its just me, but my gut says "not new orleans again", anyone worrying about this

[wiggles]

Please don't even think that, we could not handle another storm

[dwg71]

Consensous of the models have been northern mexico and extreme south texas. You have a few outliers (nogaps way south and gfdl way north)but NHC has been calling for a yuc hit for a couple of days.

When is next uk model due out?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Vortex message coming.

Unofficial HDOB extrap of 963.1 mb. Those can be wrong.