CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canegrl04]

Dr. Steve Lyons : Watch the ULL over Florida.If it gets out in front of Dean(in the gulf),he goes west.If it stays ahead of Dean,he doesn't

Not sure that is what you meant to say.

If the ULL crosses into the GOM,Dean goes west with it.If the ULL basically stays where it is,he will be more northerly

[Stormcenter]

This thing still may not making it into the GOM. Now wouldn't that be funny.
All this gloom and doom talk for nothing.

[Lowpressure]

The concern here is models are tending towards less land intervention and almost untouched through the Yucatan Channel, this is not good for ultimate landfall spot- surge.

[Steve]

Repost of the Ensembles (post edited out).

Steve

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Scorpion]

Wow the models have really shifted east this morning... not good for oil

[marcane_1973]

Funny how they Had Katrina going to a Tropical storm to 8p.m. friday. Yeah right. We all know how that turned out. RI as soon as it hit the water.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I have a question. Since Dean doesn't have a large eye it won't have to go under an EWRC. Will this help it strengthen?

[WmE]

I have a question. Since Dean doesn't have an eye it won't have to go under an EWRC. Will this help it strengthen?

Ehh, Dean does have an eye.

[jhamps10]

starting to see the eye better now and we should see it strengthen now.

Jamaica better be preparing now for this.

[Lowpressure]

Some nasty storms erupting near the center perhaps compensating for any dry air inrusion, but still obscured eye. It has that look of in less than 24 hours he will clear out and be nasty.

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97156

now going with a likely cat 5 and strong cat 3 in GOM

[HURAKAN]

I have a question. Since Dean doesn't have an eye it won't have to go under an EWRC. Will this help it strengthen?

The RECON confirms it has an eyewall, so it's likely this will have to go under an EWRC.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I have a question. Since Dean doesn't have an eye it won't have to go under an EWRC. Will this help it strengthen?

The RECON confirms it has an eyewall, so it's likely this will have to go under an EWRC.

Ok thanks.

[milankovitch]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

I agree with those saying Dean appears to be gearing up for another phase of intensification.

1. As the storm is growing larger and moving farther into the Carribean dry air is going to become less of a problem.

2. IR and especially MIMIC shows a more intense (17 mi wide, according to recon) eyewall that is beginning to close of (west side still open). This is confirmed by recon.

As for those mentioning an ERC, that is not happening. First you need a solid inner eyewall, than an outer eyewall with a moat in between the two. We have neither.

[USTropics]

As I stated earlier, as well as someone else (I believe it was sanibel), the tracks seem to be shifting a bit more to the north. This is partially due to a weaker ridge, and how Dean will interact with the upper-level low crossing Florida this weekend into the GOM. Here you can see the FSU MM5 h500 forecast of the upper-level low moving west into Texas, which seems to pull Dean just enough north to pass through the Yucatan Channel and not over land. Not good, we'll have to see if the 12Z runs agree with this.

USTropics

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171403
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 29 20070817
135400 1329N 06124W 6974 03149 0070 +084 +075 199041 041 031 006 00
135430 1330N 06125W 6973 03154 0066 +086 +078 195041 041 030 006 00
135500 1332N 06126W 6976 03145 0071 +080 +080 194042 042 028 007 00
135530 1332N 06126W 6976 03145 0075 +078 +078 201041 042 031 008 00
135600 1335N 06129W 6975 03146 0077 +073 +073 204039 040 035 016 00
135630 1336N 06130W 6973 03147 0078 +073 +073 200039 039 039 039 03
135700 1337N 06131W 6977 03144 0062 +084 +084 197039 039 037 008 00
135730 1339N 06133W 6976 03142 0054 +089 +089 199038 038 038 006 00
135800 1340N 06134W 6975 03139 0050 +090 +090 200037 037 038 006 00
135830 1342N 06135W 6975 03141 0048 +090 +090 198040 041 037 006 00
135900 1343N 06137W 6973 03138 0048 +089 +089 197041 041 038 006 00
135930 1345N 06138W 6974 03139 0043 +092 +086 198041 042 039 006 00
140000 1346N 06139W 6974 03138 0043 +090 +087 198040 040 039 006 00
140030 1348N 06140W 6973 03138 0042 +090 +085 195042 043 038 006 00
140100 1349N 06142W 6977 03129 0040 +090 +083 195042 042 036 007 00
140130 1351N 06143W 6972 03134 0032 +095 +084 192044 045 037 006 00
140200 1353N 06144W 6979 03124 0030 +095 +083 191047 047 036 006 00
140230 1354N 06145W 6976 03126 0025 +096 +080 191048 048 036 007 00
140300 1356N 06147W 6976 03120 0025 +094 +082 192048 048 036 006 00
140330 1357N 06148W 6973 03123 0022 +094 +091 194047 048 037 006 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 14:03Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 29
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
13:54:00 13.48N 61.40W 697.4 mb 3,149 m 1007.0 mb From 199° (SSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 31 kts 6 mm/hr
13:54:30 13.50N 61.42W 697.3 mb 3,154 m 1006.6 mb From 195° (SSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
13:55:00 13.53N 61.43W 697.6 mb 3,145 m 1007.1 mb From 194° (SSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 28 kts 7 mm/hr
13:55:30 13.53N 61.43W 697.6 mb 3,145 m 1007.5 mb From 201° (SSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 31 kts 8 mm/hr
13:56:00 13.58N 61.48W 697.5 mb 3,146 m 1007.7 mb From 204° (SSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 35 kts 16 mm/hr
13:56:30 13.60N 61.50W 697.3 mb 3,147 m 1007.8 mb From 200° (SSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 39 kts* 39 mm/hr*
13:57:00 13.62N 61.52W 697.7 mb 3,144 m 1006.2 mb From 197° (SSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 37 kts 8 mm/hr
13:57:30 13.65N 61.55W 697.6 mb 3,142 m 1005.4 mb From 199° (SSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
13:58:00 13.67N 61.57W 697.5 mb 3,139 m 1005.0 mb From 200° (SSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
13:58:30 13.70N 61.58W 697.5 mb 3,141 m 1004.8 mb From 198° (SSW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
13:59:00 13.72N 61.62W 697.3 mb 3,138 m 1004.8 mb From 197° (SSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
13:59:30 13.75N 61.63W 697.4 mb 3,139 m 1004.3 mb From 198° (SSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
14:00:00 13.77N 61.65W 697.4 mb 3,138 m 1004.3 mb From 198° (SSW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
14:00:30 13.80N 61.67W 697.3 mb 3,138 m 1004.2 mb From 195° (SSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
14:01:00 13.82N 61.70W 697.7 mb 3,129 m 1004.0 mb From 195° (SSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 36 kts 7 mm/hr
14:01:30 13.85N 61.72W 697.2 mb 3,134 m 1003.2 mb From 192° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
14:02:00 13.88N 61.73W 697.9 mb 3,124 m 1003.0 mb From 191° (S/SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
14:02:30 13.90N 61.75W 697.6 mb 3,126 m 1002.5 mb From 191° (S/SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 36 kts 7 mm/hr
14:03:00 13.93N 61.78W 697.6 mb 3,120 m 1002.5 mb From 192° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
14:03:30 13.95N 61.80W 697.3 mb 3,123 m 1002.2 mb From 194° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
At 13:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 21 miles (34 km) to the NNW (335°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
At 14:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 55 miles (88 km) to the W (266°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .78c-61.80

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

------

Approaching center.

[Air Force Met]

For which we should be thankful (that news agencies are mostly following the NHC track and not another weather source that shall remain nameless)...

Agreed...

[canecaster]

Wxrisk DT http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html has an interesting chart on his page regarding the dome of High pressure. He basically says Dean will either hit south of Brownsville or head for the North Central Gulf Coast around NO

[Acral]

Looks like it has begun, but still fairly smallish. I fear it may blossom in size and strength in the Carribean.