CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon is approaching the center again, so we will get another update on the eye wall within the hour for the 11AM EDT advisory.

[rockyman]

I think the ULL can steer the storm north...if the ULL gets into the western Gulf and erodes the Atlantic ridge...but if the ULL retrogrades too far to the west, then the high will build back into the eastern Gulf and steer the system west toward TX or Mexico...Does that sound correct?

[Derek Ortt]

Some severe damage to Martinique

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/17/storms/index.html

[hial2]

How will the shortwave (?) dropping from Canada (now over NC) affect the heights over the Atlantic?.It looks strong for this time of year..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171412
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 30 20070817
140400 1359N 06149W 6973 03119 0020 +095 +077 197047 048 039 006 00
140430 1401N 06150W 6973 03117 0012 +099 +068 197049 049 040 006 00
140500 1402N 06152W 6973 03113 0014 +094 +071 194050 050 040 005 00
140530 1404N 06153W 6980 03103 0012 +091 +091 200049 049 040 006 00
140600 1405N 06154W 6972 03107 0000 +099 +086 200049 050 042 006 00
140630 1407N 06155W 6976 03101 9995 +100 +085 198049 050 044 006 00
140700 1408N 06157W 6973 03099 9994 +097 +084 198050 051 044 006 00
140730 1410N 06158W 6973 03095 9989 +096 +085 196052 053 043 006 00
140800 1412N 06159W 6976 03090 9990 +091 +089 197053 053 046 006 00
140830 1413N 06200W 6976 03082 9984 +092 +083 200056 057 045 006 00
140900 1415N 06202W 6976 03077 9984 +085 +085 199057 058 047 042 03
140930 1416N 06203W 6978 03065 9994 +067 +067 197057 060 050 022 05
141000 1418N 06204W 6965 03077 9971 +082 +082 206061 064 051 022 03
141030 1419N 06205W 6964 03064 9990 +073 +999 199057 061 056 039 05
141100 1421N 06207W 6987 03027 9990 +064 +999 199066 071 059 027 01
141130 1423N 06208W 6973 03035 9941 +076 +076 199064 065 055 041 03
141200 1424N 06209W 6975 03021 9923 +082 +082 204068 070 051 045 03
141230 1426N 06210W 6973 03003 9887 +094 +094 207071 072 053 010 00
141300 1427N 06212W 6973 02987 9843 +111 +107 208073 073 057 007 00
141330 1429N 06213W 6971 02962 9803 +120 +110 207077 079 062 007 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 14:12Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 30
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
14:04:00 13.98N 61.82W 697.3 mb 3,119 m 1002.0 mb From 197° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
14:04:30 14.02N 61.83W 697.3 mb 3,117 m 1001.2 mb From 197° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 40 kts 6 mm/hr
14:05:00 14.03N 61.87W 697.3 mb 3,113 m 1001.4 mb From 194° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
14:05:30 14.07N 61.88W 698.0 mb 3,103 m 1001.2 mb From 200° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 40 kts 6 mm/hr
14:06:00 14.08N 61.90W 697.2 mb 3,107 m 1000.0 mb From 200° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 42 kts 6 mm/hr
14:06:30 14.12N 61.92W 697.6 mb 3,101 m 999.5 mb From 198° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
14:07:00 14.13N 61.95W 697.3 mb 3,099 m 999.4 mb From 198° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
14:07:30 14.17N 61.97W 697.3 mb 3,095 m 998.9 mb From 196° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
14:08:00 14.20N 61.98W 697.6 mb 3,090 m - From 197° (SSW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
14:08:30 14.22N 62.00W 697.6 mb 3,082 m 998.4 mb From 200° (SSW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
14:09:00 14.25N 62.03W 697.6 mb 3,077 m 998.4 mb From 199° (SSW) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 47 kts* 42 mm/hr*
14:09:30 14.27N 62.05W 697.8 mb 3,065 m 999.4 mb From 197° (SSW) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 50 kts* 22 mm/hr*
14:10:00 14.30N 62.07W 696.5 mb 3,077 m 997.1 mb From 206° (SSW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 51 kts* 22 mm/hr*
14:10:30 14.32N 62.08W 696.4 mb 3,064 m - From 199° (SSW) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 56 kts* 39 mm/hr*
14:11:00 14.35N 62.12W 698.7 mb 3,027 m - From 199° (SSW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 59 kts 27 mm/hr
14:11:30 14.38N 62.13W 697.3 mb 3,035 m 994.1 mb From 199° (SSW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 55 kts* 41 mm/hr*
14:12:00 14.40N 62.15W 697.5 mb 3,021 m 992.3 mb From 204° (SSW) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 51 kts* 45 mm/hr*
14:12:30 14.43N 62.17W 697.3 mb 3,003 m 988.7 mb From 207° (SSW) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 53 kts 10 mm/hr
14:13:00 14.45N 62.20W 697.3 mb 2,987 m 984.3 mb From 208° (SSW) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 57 kts 7 mm/hr
14:13:30 14.48N 62.22W 697.1 mb 2,962 m 980.3 mb From 207° (SSW) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 79 kts (~ 90.8 mph) 62 kts 7 mm/hr
At 14:04:00Z (first observation), the observation was 56 miles (90 km) to the W (269°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
At 14:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 77 miles (124 km) to the W (264°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .20c-62.22

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

Nearing center

[Stormcenter]

Wxrisk DT http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html has an interesting chart on his page regarding the dome of High pressure. He basically says Dean will either hit south of Brownsville or head for the North Central Gulf Coast around NO

I think he has it out for N.O. The guy has almost every storm making landfall there.

[Ivanhater]

I really think North Texas and West La really need to be concerned with this trend...models are sniffing a weaker ridge ....

[Weatherfreak14]

An eye is defenatly emerging. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

[tolakram]

Looks to be having problems, possibly pulling in more dry air. I would guess it's still getting stronger, but not very quickly.

[jasons2k]

Models this morning reflect pretty much what DT was saying on the radio show last night.

The NW and NC Gulf Coast, but especially NW, really needs to pay attention now.

I really don't like 3 things with this suite:
1) Dean following the ULL. This will prevent dry air intrusion into the system and could create an outflow channel.
2) The prospect of dodging land until a US landfall
3) Passage right over the highest levels of TCHP

All three *could* combine to help Dean maintain intensity right up until LF

[HURAKAN]

EYE IS BACK:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171421
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 31 20070817
141400 1430N 06214W 6982 02919 9774 +118 +118 213079 080 068 008 00
141430 1432N 06215W 6975 02901 9730 +128 +128 216070 077 070 007 00
141500 1433N 06217W 6970 02873 9678 +149 +124 202047 052 064 007 03
141530 1434N 06218W 6984 02836 9641 +165 +109 195033 036 039 006 03
141600 1435N 06220W 6983 02834 9633 +168 +112 169019 024 025 006 03
141630 1434N 06222W 6977 02834 9629 +166 +098 128006 008 024 006 03
141700 1434N 06223W 6946 02869 9626 +163 +114 277008 017 034 000 03
141730 1433N 06225W 6960 02867 9626 +174 +112 300032 044 030 006 00
141800 1433N 06225W 6960 02867 9670 +156 +118 297048 057 045 006 03
141830 1431N 06227W 6938 02931 9667 +174 +110 307060 062 056 006 03
141900 1430N 06229W 6961 02930 9715 +162 +104 305064 066 070 009 00
141930 1428N 06230W 6980 02928 9804 +102 +102 303059 062 070 010 03
142000 1427N 06231W 6953 02989 9835 +098 +098 303055 059 067 018 00
142030 1426N 06232W 6936 03044 9868 +097 +097 306050 052 999 999 03
142100 1427N 06233W 6933 03046 9863 +105 +105 311049 052 057 019 03
142130 1428N 06234W 6930 03047 9877 +084 +084 331059 062 063 021 01
142200 1429N 06235W 6948 03017 9990 +079 +999 336060 062 068 016 01
142230 1430N 06236W 6965 02994 9990 +079 +999 343060 062 999 999 05
142300 1431N 06237W 6978 02976 9990 +076 +999 353057 061 999 999 05
142330 1432N 06238W 6969 02991 9871 +090 +090 001060 061 999 999 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 14:21Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 31
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
14:14:00 14.50N 62.23W 698.2 mb 2,919 m 977.4 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 80 kts (~ 92.0 mph) 68 kts 8 mm/hr
14:14:30 14.53N 62.25W 697.5 mb 2,901 m 973.0 mb From 216° (SW) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 70 kts 7 mm/hr
14:15:00 14.55N 62.28W 697.0 mb 2,873 m 967.8 mb From 202° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 64 kts* 7 mm/hr*
14:15:30 14.57N 62.30W 698.4 mb 2,836 m 964.1 mb From 195° (SSW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 39 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:16:00 14.58N 62.33W 698.3 mb 2,834 m 963.3 mb From 169° (S) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 25 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:16:30 14.57N 62.37W 697.7 mb 2,834 m 962.9 mb From 128° (SE) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) 24 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:17:00 14.57N 62.38W 694.6 mb 2,869 m 962.6 mb From 277° (W) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 34 kts* 0 mm/hr*
14:17:30 14.55N 62.42W 696.0 mb 2,867 m 962.6 mb From 300° (WNW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
14:18:00 14.55N 62.42W 696.0 mb 2,867 m 967.0 mb From 297° (WNW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 45 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:18:30 14.52N 62.45W 693.8 mb 2,931 m 966.7 mb From 307° (NW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 56 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:19:00 14.50N 62.48W 696.1 mb 2,930 m 971.5 mb From 305° (NW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 70 kts 9 mm/hr
14:19:30 14.47N 62.50W 698.0 mb 2,928 m 980.4 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 70 kts* 10 mm/hr*
14:20:00 14.45N 62.52W 695.3 mb 2,989 m 983.5 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 67 kts 18 mm/hr
14:20:30 14.43N 62.53W 693.6 mb 3,044 m 986.8 mb From 306° (NW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) - -
14:21:00 14.45N 62.55W 693.3 mb 3,046 m 986.3 mb From 311° (NW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 57 kts* 19 mm/hr*
14:21:30 14.47N 62.57W 693.0 mb 3,047 m 987.7 mb From 331° (NNW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 63 kts 21 mm/hr
14:22:00 14.48N 62.58W 694.8 mb 3,017 m - From 336° (NNW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 68 kts 16 mm/hr
14:22:30 14.50N 62.60W 696.5 mb 2,994 m - From 343° (NNW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) - -
14:23:00 14.52N 62.62W 697.8 mb 2,976 m - From 353° (N) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) - -
14:23:30 14.53N 62.63W 696.9 mb 2,991 m 987.1 mb From 1° (N) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) - -
At 14:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 78 miles (125 km) to the W (265°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 14:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 98 miles (158 km) to the WSW (238°) from Roseau, Dominica.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .62c-62.63

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

-----

Awaiting vortex for confirmation of what the pressure is going to be. HDOB value can be wrong.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Unofficial HDOB pressure of 962.6 mb.
Awaiting vortex for the official pressure.

[Derek Ortt]

Haiti needs a Hurricane Warning at 11, Jamaica a watch, DR a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning

[TampaFl]

[cycloneye]

Haiti needs a Hurricane Warning at 11, Jamaica a watch, DR a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning

Derek,why Haiti needs a Hurricane Warning and Jamaica a watch?

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

Looks to be having problems, possibly pulling in more dry air. I would guess it's still getting stronger, but not very quickly.

I'd agree with that, upper layer dry air and South America to deal with for 24 to 36 hrs. so probably slow or no strengthening.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I saw a video of Martineque on TWC earlier. It looked like they got slammed! Very high winds and people were having to push against the windows so they wouldn't blow in.

[TTheriot1975]

Any models yet?