CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171431
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 32 20070817
142400 1433N 06239W 6982 02983 9863 +101 +101 002063 066 068 011 03
142430 1434N 06239W 6976 02992 9859 +110 +110 007070 071 068 011 00
142500 1435N 06240W 6978 02994 9882 +091 +091 017073 077 068 011 03
142530 1436N 06241W 6977 03002 9897 +083 +083 021073 075 069 010 05
142600 1437N 06242W 6970 03017 9909 +085 +085 026076 076 069 011 00
142630 1438N 06243W 6977 03016 9915 +085 +085 029073 076 068 012 00
142700 1440N 06244W 6981 03018 9929 +083 +083 037072 074 065 011 00
142730 1441N 06245W 6970 03040 9936 +085 +085 040072 073 065 011 03
142800 1442N 06246W 6970 03046 9926 +098 +098 042068 069 062 040 03
142830 1443N 06247W 6977 03044 9918 +110 +104 043065 067 059 046 03
142900 1445N 06248W 6971 03056 9925 +111 +093 046064 065 059 008 00
142930 1446N 06249W 6974 03059 9931 +111 +090 049063 065 059 009 00
143000 1447N 06250W 6975 03065 9946 +106 +091 051067 073 059 008 00
143030 1447N 06250W 6975 03065 9953 +104 +091 051071 074 059 009 00
143100 1450N 06252W 6971 03086 9970 +098 +095 050073 074 057 011 00
143130 1451N 06253W 6975 03087 9979 +096 +096 052071 074 057 010 00
143200 1453N 06254W 6972 03093 9979 +099 +099 052067 068 056 010 00
143230 1454N 06255W 6977 03091 9984 +100 +099 053065 066 052 035 03
143300 1455N 06256W 6973 03095 9976 +107 +096 053065 067 051 008 03
143330 1457N 06257W 6976 03098 9991 +098 +094 060070 072 051 008 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 14:31Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 32
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
14:24:00 14.55N 62.65W 698.2 mb 2,983 m 986.3 mb From 2° (N) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 68 kts* 11 mm/hr*
14:24:30 14.57N 62.65W 697.6 mb 2,992 m 985.9 mb From 7° (N) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 68 kts 11 mm/hr
14:25:00 14.58N 62.67W 697.8 mb 2,994 m 988.2 mb From 17° (NNE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 68 kts* 11 mm/hr*
14:25:30 14.60N 62.68W 697.7 mb 3,002 m 989.7 mb From 21° (NNE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 69 kts* 10 mm/hr*
14:26:00 14.62N 62.70W 697.0 mb 3,017 m 990.9 mb From 26° (NNE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 69 kts 11 mm/hr
14:26:30 14.63N 62.72W 697.7 mb 3,016 m 991.5 mb From 29° (NNE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 68 kts 12 mm/hr
14:27:00 14.67N 62.73W 698.1 mb 3,018 m 992.9 mb From 37° (NE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 65 kts 11 mm/hr
14:27:30 14.68N 62.75W 697.0 mb 3,040 m 993.6 mb From 40° (NE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 65 kts* 11 mm/hr*
14:28:00 14.70N 62.77W 697.0 mb 3,046 m 992.6 mb From 42° (NE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 62 kts* 40 mm/hr*
14:28:30 14.72N 62.78W 697.7 mb 3,044 m 991.8 mb From 43° (NE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 59 kts* 46 mm/hr*
14:29:00 14.75N 62.80W 697.1 mb 3,056 m 992.5 mb From 46° (NE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 59 kts 8 mm/hr
14:29:30 14.77N 62.82W 697.4 mb 3,059 m 993.1 mb From 49° (NE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 59 kts 9 mm/hr
14:30:00 14.78N 62.83W 697.5 mb 3,065 m 994.6 mb From 51° (NE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 59 kts 8 mm/hr
14:30:30 14.78N 62.83W 697.5 mb 3,065 m 995.3 mb From 51° (NE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 59 kts 9 mm/hr
14:31:00 14.83N 62.87W 697.1 mb 3,086 m 997.0 mb From 50° (NE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 57 kts 11 mm/hr
14:31:30 14.85N 62.88W 697.5 mb 3,087 m 997.9 mb From 52° (NE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 57 kts 10 mm/hr
14:32:00 14.88N 62.90W 697.2 mb 3,093 m 997.9 mb From 52° (NE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 56 kts 10 mm/hr
14:32:30 14.90N 62.92W 697.7 mb 3,091 m 998.4 mb From 53° (NE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 52 kts* 35 mm/hr*
14:33:00 14.92N 62.93W 697.3 mb 3,095 m 997.6 mb From 53° (NE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 51 kts* 8 mm/hr*
14:33:30 14.95N 62.95W 697.6 mb 3,098 m 999.1 mb From 60° (ENE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 51 kts* 8 mm/hr*
At 14:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 99 miles (159 km) to the WSW (239°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 14:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 107 miles (172 km) to the WSW (257°) from Roseau, Dominica.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .93c-62.95

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[x-y-no]

Haiti needs a Hurricane Warning at 11, Jamaica a watch, DR a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning

Derek,why Haiti needs a Hurricane Warning and Jamaica a watch?

I presume just a matter of timing.

Jamaica will be needing a warning tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Extremecane]

NAM is furthur north

[Ivanhater]

Wow...models shifting north...less agreement with this ridge...Cant tell yet..but I think North Texas and West LA will be in the bullseye soon

[Johnny]

Alight AFM, time for you to chime in brother. In your opinion, what is this sucker gonna do?

[gboudx]

Wow...models shifting north...less agreement with this ridge...Cant tell yet..but I think North Texas and West LA will be in the bullseye soon

What area do you mean by "North Texas"?

[Ivanhater]

I saw a video of Martineque on TWC earlier. It looked like they got slammed! Very high winds and people were having to push against the windows so they wouldn't blow in.

My prayers are with them today

[Fego]

Haiti is first and then Jamaica.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ya know, I don't know why everyone was so stuck on the models so far out.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 171433
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/14:17:00Z
B. 14 deg 34 min N
062 deg 23 min W
C. NA mb 2807 m
D. 70 kt
E. 104 deg 008 nm
F. 218 deg 082 kt
G. 107 deg 008 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 12 C/ 3029 m
J. 18 C/ 3027 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/2
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 100 KT E QUAD 12:33:00 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL

Storm DEAN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 100KT (115.0mph 185.2km/h) In E Quadrant At 12:33:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 90.0KT (103.5mph 166.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: RAGGED EYEWALL.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 17, 2007 10:17:00 AM (Fri, 17 Aug 2007 14:17:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 14° 34' N 062° 23' W (14.6°N 62.4°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 70 KT (80.5MPH 129.6km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 104°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 082KT (94.3mph 151.9km/h) From 218°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 107°
Minimum pressure: 964 mb (28.47in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 17nm (19.6 mi 31.5km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 200mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At NaNnm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Derek Ortt]

timing, Jamaica is farther west

[TTheriot1975]

Means North Texas Coast..TX/LA border

[Ivanhater]

Wow...models shifting north...less agreement with this ridge...Cant tell yet..but I think North Texas and West LA will be in the bullseye soon

What area do you mean by "North Texas"?

The greater Houston area to Beaumont

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Latest vortex: 964mb

URNT12 KNHC 171433
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/14:17:00Z
B. 14 deg 34 min N
062 deg 23 min W
C. NA mb 2807 m
D. 70 kt
E. 104 deg 008 nm
F. 218 deg 082 kt
G. 107 deg 008 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 12 C/ 3029 m
J. 18 C/ 3027 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/2
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 100 KT E QUAD 12:33:00 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL

Storm DEAN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 100KT (115.0mph 185.2km/h) In E Quadrant At 12:33:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 90.0KT (103.5mph 166.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: RAGGED EYEWALL.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 17, 2007 10:17:00 AM (Fri, 17 Aug 2007 14:17:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 14° 34' N 062° 23' W (14.6°N 62.4°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 70 KT (80.5MPH 129.6km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 104°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 082KT (94.3mph 151.9km/h) From 218°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 107°
Minimum pressure: 964 mb (28.47in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 17nm (19.6 mi 31.5km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 200mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At NaNnm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Extremecane]

EYE IS BACK:

As soon the eye is clear out i think we will have more of a RI

[oyster_reef]

tic tic tic.... waiting on the 11am... tic tic tic

[EyELeSs1]

a strong feeder band is started to come through here now with the worst weather yet... 43mph and still gusting

[Cape Verde]

The Galveston Bay scenario would be the worst, not only for that area but for the country. Unless you've actually seen the petrochemical complex there, you can't appreciate how vast it is and how vital to this nation.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner this AM:

Very dangerous Hurricane forecasted in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Residents along the Gulf coast should review hurricane preparedness plans and be prepared to enact these plans early next week.

Discussion:

Dean is looking somewhat ragged this morning likely due to a combination of fast forward motion, dry air, and weak wind shear. Even so wind gusts of 87 and 64 mph were recorded in the Windward Islands as Dean moved through this morning. The storm continues to race westward at a very fast pace under the force of deep layer ridging over the SW ATL.

Track:

GIV upper air mission data was ingested into the models last evening and the result is a weaker SE US high and more of a poleward turn toward the NW in the Gulf of Mexico. The trusty GFDL and UKMET continue to point toward an upper TX coast strike while the GFS remains aimed at N Mexico. GFS ensembles have trended northward as well suggesting a higher threat to TX. Key forecast track factor hinges on weakness in ridge over TX caused by Erin and upper level TUTT over the Bahamas. TUTT is forecasted to move westward toward TX arriving Sun/Mon with Dean following behind from the SE. Due to the ridge weakness left by Erin the TUTT may slow as it reaches the western extent of the sub-tropical high over TX allowing Dean to turn more NW in the Gulf. This is what is being suggested by the latest guidance with the GIV data. With this in mind a dangerous hurricane is forecasted to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday and possibly be in the western Gulf by early Thursday. Extrapolation of NHC 5-day forecast point shows a landfall near Brownsville.

It is strong urged that residents not focus on the thin black line in the forecast track but the overall forecast error cone. There is equal risk within the cone…remember Rita.

Intensity:

Dean is struggling with its fast forward motion and dry air entrainment this morning as well as crossing an area that is usually not very favorable for tropical cyclones. All intensity guidance continues to make Dean a major hurricane and a cat 4 before landfall on the Yucatan. GFDL shows Dean as a monster 185mph cat 5 in the west Caribbean. There should be some weakening over the Yucatan if in fact that is where the hurricane tracks and then some re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper air pattern looks favorable for intensification over the Gulf however past hurricane that have interacted with the Yucatan have had a hard time regaining intensity…we shall see.

Preparation Actions:

Dean is forecasted to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with a potential threat to the TX coast.

Residents should review their hurricane action plans and be fully prepared to put them to use early next week.

Evacuation zone areas should review their evacuation route plans and be prepared for possible evacuation orders early next week.

The state of TX along with local emergency planners will be activating their plans for the arrival of adverse conditions by early Thursday morning…including moving fuel supplies to the coast and evac. routes and sweeping evacuation routes for road hazards. TXDOT will be preparing contraflow exchange points on I-45, US 290, I-10, US 59 this weekend in the event mass evacuations are required. US 290 hurrevac lane (shoulder) will be prepared for traffic flow this weekend.

Will continue updates through the weekend.

[tracyswfla]

tic tic tic.... waiting on the 11am... tic tic tic

hmmmm, 11am is late! Bet we are going to have some new info. for the states.