CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[DESTRUCTION5]

,This was coming from Bahamas not SE Carribean..

[cycloneye]

18 hours

[BayouVenteux]

Let's hope the current 5-6 day models do not end up being as correct as they were back then with Rita.

As for a pronounced shift per Rita in '05 (from Brownsville to TX/LA border)....I'd have to think that the ridge modeling / strength of ridging would be a little less volatile in mid-August as opposed to the second half of September...particularly in the current synoptic pattern we've had since these Eastern U.S. ridges replaced the troughing at the beginning of this month. That said, it will certainly be interesting to watch the interplay of the ULL over the Bahamas, Dean, the high and how the models handle it over the coming days.

[JTD]

96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND

Hmmm... It's almost an exageration to call this "inland". I guess by-definition, the eye will pass over the tip of the Yuc and be inland momentarily...but the latest NHC track should only be a glancing blow. I'm a bit surprised that they're thinking that this Yuc encounter will knock D from 130 kts down to 100kts. But let's certainly hope so!

Avila's notorious for doing that. He forecast Katrina down to what 50-55 mph during it's trek across the Florida everglades. Of course, it barely weakened at all

[cycloneye]

18 hours 500

Upper low over Florida

[Houstonia]

From Jeff Masters http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=752&tstamp=200708:

The NOAA jet mission did not help at all with narrowing down the uncertainty in the computer forecasts for the 4-5 day period, which remain divergent. The 06Z run of the GFS model takes Dean over the center of the Yucatan, then into the Texas/Mexico border region on Thursday. The 06Z GFDL is much faster and further north, taking Dean through the Yucatan Channel and into northeastern Texas near Galveston on Wednesday. The 06Z HWRF is in between and much slower, taking Dean over the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday. The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, and there is no is currently no way to guess which model will be right. Which model should you trust? I'll present the statistics for how these models performed last year in my update this afternoon.

It will be interesting to see what models performed well last year...

[El Nino]

It doesn't surprise me that Dean could pass between Cuba and Mexico. Houston could be in a very bad situation !

[jasons2k]

Keep in mind that wobbles right now are crucial! Lets take bowling for example: (follow me here)

For those of us who bowl, you know that the lane is 60' long. Each board on the floor is an 1" wide. Well by moving left or right one board on the floor equals to a 6" difference in ball placement at the pens.

The same holds true for Dean. With each wobble to the north, you are looking at 10's of miles up the coast...being that we are so far away.

Sort of.....usally wobbles are corrected the other way with a subsequent wobble in the other direction. If you look at fast loops of most storms, the overall heading stays the same regardless of wobbles left & right.

[cycloneye]

30 hours surface

[El Nino]

From Jeff Masters http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=752&tstamp=200708:

The NOAA jet mission did not help at all with narrowing down the uncertainty in the computer forecasts for the 4-5 day period, which remain divergent. The 06Z run of the GFS model takes Dean over the center of the Yucatan, then into the Texas/Mexico border region on Thursday. The 06Z GFDL is much faster and further north, taking Dean through the Yucatan Channel and into northeastern Texas near Galveston on Wednesday. The 06Z HWRF is in between and much slower, taking Dean over the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday. The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, and there is no is currently no way to guess which model will be right. Which model should you trust? I'll present the statistics for how these models performed last year in my update this afternoon.

GFDL ? If it's so, it's right over Houston !

It will be interesting to see what models performed well last year...

[cycloneye]

30 hours 500

Upper Low in GOM

[Steve]

>>Yea but Dean may just be feeling a little weakness and then bend back W and in the long run still 275*-280* on movement.Lets see if continues for a while like I said it just an ob.Kevin

Absolutely. But my boy (shout out to) P-townballa got these numbers from the NHC advisories:

08/16 21 GMT 14.0 56.5 100 979 Hurricane
08/17 03 GMT 14.1 58.7 100 976 Hurricane
08/17 09 GMT 14.3 60.9 100 976 Hurricane
08/17 15 GMT 14.6 62.6 105 964 Hurricane
okay last four runs .1N 2.2W, .2N, 2.2W, .3N, 1.7W

So we've gone from a 1:22 slope to a 1:11 to 3:17 (+/- 1:5.667)

True WNW (which I think is 292.5 degrees based on memory) is 1:2 (or 2:1 depending on how you look at it). We're still tracking West of WNW at a 1:6/6:1 based on the official positions. Of course the key is averaging that out over 12, 18 or 24 hour periods. Just something to watch as time goes on.

Steve

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Masters http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=752&tstamp=200708:

The NOAA jet mission did not help at all with narrowing down the uncertainty in the computer forecasts for the 4-5 day period, which remain divergent.

Funny that. I said the exact same thing before the jet flew. It'd help in the short term but not much in the long term....too many variables beyond 3 days.

[TampaFl]

Looking at the WV loop & the UUL east of Florida appears to be moving due west. It was forcast to move west southwest over S. Florida & then move into Central Texs. If it moves over north or north central FL then this might have a big impact on the track? Plus look @ the trough digging south between the high over Texas & the ULL . Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[cycloneye]

48 hours surface

Nearing Jamaica

[redstick]

More of a northern track, on top of Jamaica.......Hummm.

[superdeluxe]

More of a northern track, on top of Jamaica.......Hummm.

Can we take anything from this?

[DESTRUCTION5]

What with the Depression in thw W carribean...LOL

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150024.shtml?5day#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

It looks like the trend north in the NHC track continues. If the models stay the same, then expect the NHC to continue moving a hair further north each day. If the the track is still aimed anywhere between Corpus and Morgan City by Sunday, then we in Houston will need to pay extra close attention.

BTW, at 5-6 days out the Hurricane Rita models looked like this...



Not that bad, right? They were slightly left, but overall had a good general idea. Let's hope the current 5-6 day models do not end up being as correct as they were back then with Rita.

They weren't.

are you kidding? For 5-6 days out, those model runs were excellent. The difference between the Houston area and the TX/LA border at that timeframe is miniscule for the models.

Now some of the models did begin to trend back south I believe toward day 4-5 (which was wrong), but they eventually then went back to TX/LA border when we were 1-2 days out.

The point I am trying to make though is that at this point (5-6 days out from the possible impact of Dean), we need to pay attention to the models much more closely. They usually are starting to become slightly more accurate.

[cycloneye]

48 hours 500