CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

I think it's going to end up going north of Jamaica... that's the trend and a Jamaica hit or miss is a lot closer than the final landfall.

LOL, a 1004 mb disorganized weak system.

[artist]

seems to be the center will be just north of Jamaica - that would be good news if it has to be hit at all.

[x-y-no]

48 hours surface

Nearing Jamaica

Some very rough conditions for southern Haiti if this verifies.

[cycloneye]

60 hours surface

Just West of Jamaica

[cycloneye]

60 hours 500

[6SpeedTA95]

Looking at the WV loop & the UUL east of Florida appears to be moving due west. It was forcast to move west southwest over S. Florida & then move into Central Texs. If it moves over north or north central FL then this might have a big impact on the track? Plus look @ the trough digging south between the high over Texas & the ULL . Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

That low off the coast of florida is beginning to have some convection.

[KWT]

Dean further north and weaker due to close encounter with Haiti.

[Sabanic]

The ENTIRE Gulf Coast will be watching intently for the next 5-6 days

[x-y-no]

60 hours surface

Just West of Jamaica

594 decameter ridge building over the top and the low backed off to the western Gulf ...

Looks like this run may go straight through the channel.

[Brent]

I think it's going to either clip or miss the Yucatan

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[El Nino]

At this rate, it won't be Yucatan but W tip of Cuba.

[stormchazer]

Things appear to me to be on track for Dean. If the ULL were to move SW, the impact would likely be greater at least in the near term. I think Dean is still on track to be a Mexico or Far Western GOM event, unfortunately for them.

[cycloneye]

78 hour surface

Jan it looks that way.

[Ivanhater]

At this rate, it won't be Yucatan but W tip of Cuba.

nah..gfs bends it back west

[cycloneye]

78 hours 500

[weatherguru18]

I hate asking questions like this, but a lot of people disagree with me when I say winds over 100mph are possible 70-80 miles inland during a Cat. 4 or 5 hurricane. What do you guys think one can expect 70-80 miles inland?

[canegrl04]

60 hours surface

Just West of Jamaica

594 decameter ridge building over the top and the low backed off to the western Gulf ...

Looks like this run may go straight through the channel.

That is a rare event for a hurricane.And makes it very dangerous

[Brent]

Looks like it's going to hit Cancun

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

Things appear to me to be on track for Dean. If the ULL were to move SW, the impact would likely be greater at least in the near term. I think Dean is still on track to be a Mexico or Far Western GOM event, unfortunately for them.

I think Mexico is looking far less likely due to the models gradually moving north, however
Brownsville seems to be the best target right now.

[Pearl River]

This run appears to have Yucatan, BOC and NE Mexico written all over it.