CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[El Nino]

I really don't believe this run : this WNW turn to the North of Jam and then again Wtowards Cancun seems quite bullsh*t to me. Waiting for the others. When goes out GFDL ?

[Chacor]

Concentric eyewalls would suggest so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really don't believe this run : this WNW turn to the North of Jam and then again Wtowards Cancun seems quite bullsh*t to me. Waiting for the others. When goes out GFDL ?

I don't buy that either. Seems strange, and I doubt it will happen..especially if the storm is stronger than shown by the GFS.

[Steve]

>>It's funny how Jamaica almost seems to have a shield around and usually only gets sideswiped by the storms.

Hey, it's all that smoke mon. Hurricane stay away when you speak of Jah.


Steve

[Stormcenter]

This run of the GFS shows a broad area of low pressure at 30 hours. I am discounting this run completely.

I bet the NHC is not.

[Sanibel]

I guess those trochoid wobbles were telling us something. Right out of the gates Dean has just recorded 115KT flight level winds and 963 pressure. I believe that is something like 115mph surface winds category 3 intensity.

I think we are looking at category 5 further west for sure...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171621
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 43 20070817
161400 1515N 06218W 6978 03125 0067 +064 +064 138071 073 058 025 00
161430 1516N 06217W 6973 03116 9990 +063 +999 128065 071 061 039 01
161500 1517N 06216W 6976 03124 0085 +056 +056 131069 071 060 037 01
161530 1519N 06214W 6962 03144 0075 +060 +060 134069 069 052 016 03
161600 1520N 06213W 6981 03125 0064 +074 +074 135068 069 049 037 03
161630 1521N 06212W 6977 03133 0055 +082 +082 136067 068 050 042 03
161700 1522N 06211W 6969 03147 0051 +087 +087 137063 065 048 017 03
161730 1523N 06210W 6976 03137 0050 +090 +090 137062 062 047 008 00
161800 1525N 06208W 6976 03143 0054 +089 +089 139062 063 046 008 03
161830 1526N 06207W 6973 03147 0066 +082 +082 139058 059 043 031 03
161900 1527N 06206W 6976 03145 0088 +066 +066 139057 059 045 036 03
161930 1528N 06205W 6969 03155 0092 +063 +063 136056 057 045 036 03
162000 1528N 06205W 6969 03155 0093 +065 +065 134057 058 045 051 03
162030 1531N 06202W 6974 03150 0083 +073 +073 136057 058 041 011 03
162100 1532N 06201W 6973 03152 0085 +070 +070 137057 057 040 011 00
162130 1533N 06200W 6973 03154 0090 +070 +070 134059 060 039 011 00
162200 1534N 06158W 6975 03155 0091 +071 +071 133058 059 040 011 03
162230 1535N 06157W 6976 03157 0082 +078 +078 130055 056 041 011 00
162300 1536N 06156W 6977 03155 0082 +080 +080 132054 054 038 037 03
162330 1538N 06155W 6974 03159 0084 +079 +079 136053 055 038 014 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 16:21Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 43
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
16:14:00 15.25N 62.30W 697.8 mb 3,125 m 1006.7 mb From 138° (SE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 58 kts 25 mm/hr
16:14:30 15.27N 62.28W 697.3 mb 3,116 m - From 128° (SE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 61 kts 39 mm/hr
16:15:00 15.28N 62.27W 697.6 mb 3,124 m 1008.5 mb From 131° (SE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 60 kts 37 mm/hr
16:15:30 15.32N 62.23W 696.2 mb 3,144 m 1007.5 mb From 134° (SE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 52 kts* 16 mm/hr*
16:16:00 15.33N 62.22W 698.1 mb 3,125 m 1006.4 mb From 135° (SE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 49 kts* 37 mm/hr*
16:16:30 15.35N 62.20W 697.7 mb 3,133 m 1005.5 mb From 136° (SE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 50 kts* 42 mm/hr*
16:17:00 15.37N 62.18W 696.9 mb 3,147 m 1005.1 mb From 137° (SE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 48 kts* 17 mm/hr*
16:17:30 15.38N 62.17W 697.6 mb 3,137 m 1005.0 mb From 137° (SE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 47 kts 8 mm/hr
16:18:00 15.42N 62.13W 697.6 mb 3,143 m 1005.4 mb From 139° (SE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 46 kts* 8 mm/hr*
16:18:30 15.43N 62.12W 697.3 mb 3,147 m 1006.6 mb From 139° (SE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 43 kts* 31 mm/hr*
16:19:00 15.45N 62.10W 697.6 mb 3,145 m 1008.8 mb From 139° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 45 kts* 36 mm/hr*
16:19:30 15.47N 62.08W 696.9 mb 3,155 m 1009.2 mb From 136° (SE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 45 kts* 36 mm/hr*
16:20:00 15.47N 62.08W 696.9 mb 3,155 m 1009.3 mb From 134° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 45 kts* 51 mm/hr*
16:20:30 15.52N 62.03W 697.4 mb 3,150 m 1008.3 mb From 136° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 41 kts* 11 mm/hr*
16:21:00 15.53N 62.02W 697.3 mb 3,152 m 1008.5 mb From 137° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 40 kts 11 mm/hr
16:21:30 15.55N 62.00W 697.3 mb 3,154 m 1009.0 mb From 134° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 39 kts 11 mm/hr
16:22:00 15.57N 61.97W 697.5 mb 3,155 m 1009.1 mb From 133° (SE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 40 kts* 11 mm/hr*
16:22:30 15.58N 61.95W 697.6 mb 3,157 m 1008.2 mb From 130° (SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 41 kts 11 mm/hr
16:23:00 15.60N 61.93W 697.7 mb 3,155 m 1008.2 mb From 132° (SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 38 kts* 37 mm/hr*
16:23:30 15.63N 61.92W 697.4 mb 3,159 m 1008.4 mb From 136° (SE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 38 kts* 14 mm/hr*
At 16:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 61 miles (98 km) to the W (267°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 16:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 29 miles (46 km) to the SSW (207°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .93c-61.92

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[WxGuy1]

Just to be clear, you should probably note, in the thread title, that the 115kts in the NE Quad is from flight level observations. I'd think that some would be confused and think that the Vortex message noted 115kts at the sfc, which it did not (from my understanding). Thanks!

Recon obs=Vortex Data Message=963mb, 115kts flight-level NE Quad

[CronkPSU]

2 eye walls already???

115 mph surface winds...and people are calling this thing disorganized?

[JTD]

ERC would raise the pressure at least 10-15 mb correct?

Not much strengthening today I would assume??

[CrazyC83]

I guess those trochoid wobbles were telling us something. Right out of the gates Dean has just recorded 115KT flight level winds and 963 pressure. I believe that is something like 115mph surface winds category 3 intensity.

I think we are looking at category 5 further west for sure...

Yep, that translates to 103 kt winds at the surface. It is Category 3 right now for sure...I would hold it at 100 kt for the moment due to its pressure and shape though.

[Stormcenter]

I also bet if this run had shifted north into middle or upper Texas coast most of you "ignoring" because of it's Mexico hit would be jumping on the GFS bandwagon. It is what it is.
I would not be surprised if the other models started trending back south.
By the way I'm not a gambler.

[weatherguru18]

ERC would raise the pressure at least 10-15 mb correct?

Not much strengthening today I would assume??

Just the opposite. Once it completes it ERC, this thing will deepen like crazy.

[tolakram]

2 eye walls already???

115 mph surface winds...and people are calling this thing disorganized?

I've called it disorganized and I don't count as anything but an ignorant observer. It is pretty ragged though, look at the previous descriptions from the NHC. I think what it means if that Dean were more organized we'd be looking at a monster.

[JTD]

ERC would raise the pressure at least 10-15 mb correct?

Not much strengthening today I would assume??

Just the opposite. Once it completes it ERC, this thing will deepen like crazy.

Oh no, I know. I am just thinking it will delay any RIC until tommorrow. Would you agree?

[CrazyC83]

ERC would raise the pressure at least 10-15 mb correct?

Not much strengthening today I would assume??

Just the opposite. Once it completes it ERC, this thing will deepen like crazy.

I am thinking Category 4 by this evening...

[Vandymit]

I also bet if this run had shifted north into middle or upper Texas coast most of you "ignoring" because of it's Mexico hit would be jumping on the GFS bandwagon. It is what it is.
I would not be surprised if the other models started trending back south.
By the way I'm not a gambler.

Yeah, I bet we see left adjustment to the GFDL.

[Brent]

Temporarily it should not strengthen but once it's done, probably in time for tonight, should strengthen a lot.

[cycloneye]

I really don't believe this run : this WNW turn to the North of Jam and then again Wtowards Cancun seems quite bullsh*t to me. Waiting for the others. When goes out GFDL ?

1:30 PM EDT.

[miamicanes177]

I bet if this run had shifted north into middle or upper Texas coast most of you "ignoring" because of it's Mexico hit would be jumping on the GFS bandwagon. It is what it is.
I would not be surprised if the other models started trending back south.

I'm ignoring it because it shows a broad low pressure area in 30 hours....recon just found 115kts at flight level and this is likely a cat 3. The GFS is not handling this well right now. It also shows it tracking further north and then all of the sudden heading due west as a very weak storm.