CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weatherguru18]

ERC would raise the pressure at least 10-15 mb correct?

Not much strengthening today I would assume??

Just the opposite. Once it completes it ERC, this thing will deepen like crazy.

Oh no, I know. I am just thinking it will delay any RIC until tommorrow. Would you agree?

I'm thinking 115 kts. by 11pm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I bet if this run had shifted north into middle or upper Texas coast most of you "ignoring" because of it's Mexico hit would be jumping on the GFS bandwagon. It is what it is.
I would not be surprised if the other models started trending back south.

No, we wouldn't. But come on now...this model is pretty much an outlier with it's landfall. The other models are for the most part north of this and the overall environment dipicted by this model in the GOM would suggest the storm would move more north into the weakness. Something just doesn't click. If the other models start turning south toward Mexico, then may be I will buy into it, but for now I am skeptical of this run.

[HouTXmetro]

I wouldn't discount it but obviously it's too weak. Unless we are expecting significant weakening.

[hicksta]

Stormcenter, if you read the model you can tell theres a weakness which should turn the storm NW as the GFDL and UKMET have caught on to, but the gfs still has not. Thats why they are saying the run is trash.

I also bet if this run had shifted north into middle or upper Texas coast most of you "ignoring" because of it's Mexico hit would be jumping on the GFS bandwagon. It is what it is.
I would not be surprised if the other models started trending back south.
By the way I'm not a gambler.

[JTD]

Temporarily it should not strengthen but once it's done, probably in time for tonight, should strengthen a lot.

Ala Katrina.

[Ivanhater]

Lets see if the Nogaps continues south

12z Nogaps 12 hours

[RL3AO]

I agree. This thing could be a Cat 4 by 11pm...who knows what at 5am.

[El Nino]

Ala Wilma

[superdeluxe]

When is the next GFDL guidance?

[HURAKAN]

NOT IRAQ, BUT THIS IS BOMBING:

[CrazyC83]

Should they go with a special advisory or just upgrade with the intermediate advisory? Seeing that eye makes me think 105 kt is correct at this point...

[Sanibel]

12z GFS is obviously recognizing the US ridge...

[Ivanhater]

24 hr Nogaps...

[JTD]

NOT IRAQ, BUT THIS IS BOMBING:

WOW!!!!!

Best it has ever looked.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I bet if this run had shifted north into middle or upper Texas coast most of you "ignoring" because of it's Mexico hit would be jumping on the GFS bandwagon. It is what it is.
I would not be surprised if the other models started trending back south.

No, we wouldn't. But come on now...this model is pretty much an outlier with it's landfall. The other models are for the most part north of this and the overall environment dipicted by this model in the GOM would suggest the storm would move more north into the weakness. Something just doesn't click. If the other models start turning south toward Mexico, then may be I will buy into it, but for now I am skeptical of this run.

If the Euro keeps this South of the Border, I'd tend to believe it, unless the new Mexico landfall is much further North (ie, trneding North) than the last landfall. It just seems like the GFS hasn't done too badly, and if it has Euro support, I'd tend to trust it over the UK Met and the Canadian.

Where does the GFS ensemble mean take Dean?

[jwayne]

For what it's worth, JB says Texas hit and is concerned about 5 runs in a row of GFDL basically being the same. Says windfield will be huge (ie Carla or Katrina). We'll see.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171631
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 44 20070817
162400 1539N 06154W 6977 03156 0094 +072 +072 140056 057 999 999 03
162430 1540N 06152W 6972 03162 0095 +074 +074 142057 057 999 999 03
162500 1541N 06151W 6977 03162 0098 +072 +072 142059 060 999 999 03
162530 1542N 06150W 6973 03163 0094 +074 +074 140060 060 046 024 00
162600 1544N 06149W 6970 03166 0102 +068 +068 138059 061 048 045 03
162630 1545N 06147W 6967 03170 0119 +057 +057 142058 059 053 017 00
162700 1546N 06146W 6964 03174 0116 +059 +059 142060 064 050 018 01
162730 1547N 06145W 6985 03148 0110 +063 +063 137060 065 048 019 05
162800 1549N 06144W 6975 03160 0101 +064 +064 141063 064 047 044 05
162830 1551N 06144W 6988 03140 0082 +081 +081 140068 069 047 019 03
162900 1553N 06144W 6960 03178 0106 +063 +063 134069 074 046 044 03
162930 1555N 06144W 6982 03146 0115 +055 +055 134069 071 051 015 00
163000 1557N 06145W 6970 03167 0101 +068 +068 137063 068 050 043 03
163030 1600N 06145W 6974 03162 0076 +086 +086 141060 061 048 008 03
163100 1601N 06146W 6975 03163 0072 +092 +089 145062 065 054 004 03
163130 1602N 06148W 6974 03165 0093 +077 +077 141060 062 045 007 03
163200 1602N 06150W 6979 03158 0097 +074 +074 136059 060 039 008 00
163230 1602N 06152W 6973 03166 0085 +082 +082 133062 063 038 008 00
163300 1603N 06154W 6975 03163 0097 +075 +075 129064 065 040 034 03
163330 1603N 06157W 6968 03168 0099 +072 +072 124067 069 040 034 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 16:31Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 44
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
16:24:00 15.65N 61.90W 697.7 mb 3,156 m 1009.4 mb From 140° (SE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) - -
16:24:30 15.67N 61.87W 697.2 mb 3,162 m 1009.5 mb From 142° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) - -
16:25:00 15.68N 61.85W 697.7 mb 3,162 m 1009.8 mb From 142° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
16:25:30 15.70N 61.83W 697.3 mb 3,163 m 1009.4 mb From 140° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 46 kts 24 mm/hr
16:26:00 15.73N 61.82W 697.0 mb 3,166 m 1010.2 mb From 138° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 48 kts* 45 mm/hr*
16:26:30 15.75N 61.78W 696.7 mb 3,170 m 1011.9 mb From 142° (SE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 53 kts 17 mm/hr
16:27:00 15.77N 61.77W 696.4 mb 3,174 m 1011.6 mb From 142° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 50 kts 18 mm/hr
16:27:30 15.78N 61.75W 698.5 mb 3,148 m 1011.0 mb From 137° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 48 kts* 19 mm/hr*
16:28:00 15.82N 61.73W 697.5 mb 3,160 m 1010.1 mb From 141° (SE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 47 kts* 44 mm/hr*
16:28:30 15.85N 61.73W 698.8 mb 3,140 m 1008.2 mb From 140° (SE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 47 kts* 19 mm/hr*
16:29:00 15.88N 61.73W 696.0 mb 3,178 m 1010.6 mb From 134° (SE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 46 kts* 44 mm/hr*
16:29:30 15.92N 61.73W 698.2 mb 3,146 m 1011.5 mb From 134° (SE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 51 kts 15 mm/hr
16:30:00 15.95N 61.75W 697.0 mb 3,167 m 1010.1 mb From 137° (SE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 50 kts* 43 mm/hr*
16:30:30 16.00N 61.75W 697.4 mb 3,162 m 1007.6 mb From 141° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 48 kts* 8 mm/hr*
16:31:00 16.02N 61.77W 697.5 mb 3,163 m 1007.2 mb From 145° (SE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 54 kts* 4 mm/hr*
16:31:30 16.03N 61.80W 697.4 mb 3,165 m 1009.3 mb From 141° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 45 kts* 7 mm/hr*
16:32:00 16.03N 61.83W 697.9 mb 3,158 m 1009.7 mb From 136° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 39 kts 8 mm/hr
16:32:30 16.03N 61.87W 697.3 mb 3,166 m 1008.5 mb From 133° (SE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 38 kts 8 mm/hr
16:33:00 16.05N 61.90W 697.5 mb 3,163 m 1009.7 mb From 129° (SE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 40 kts* 34 mm/hr*
16:33:30 16.05N 61.95W 696.8 mb 3,168 m 1009.9 mb From 124° (SE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 40 kts* 34 mm/hr*
At 16:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 27 miles (43 km) to the SSW (206°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
At 16:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 16 miles (25 km) to the WNW (283°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .90c-61.95

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[hicksta]

jwayne where did he say this? not saying he didn't just wanting to read more into it.

[Sanibel]

St Lucia and Martinique are lucky this wasn't a day later. It was obviously undergoing intensification as it passed. Damage reports should confirm.

[Brent]

NOT IRAQ, BUT THIS IS BOMBING:

OK, seriously, this thing looks ready to bomb!