CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

NOT IRAQ, BUT THIS IS BOMBING:

OK, seriously, this thing looks ready to bomb!

I think it is bombing...

[Extremecane]

Wow eye is really starting to clear up

[Chacor]

Should they go with a special advisory or just upgrade with the intermediate advisory? Seeing that eye makes me think 105 kt is correct at this point...

They might put out a TC update at best, but won't do a special adv before the intermediate.

[tolakram]

It's gaining organization quite quickly. I wonder if we caught then end of the ERC?

[wxmann_91]

It looks like that the GFS dissolves the ULL... much like the Euro does. The 500mb pattern across the CONUS looks somewhat like what the 0Z Euro showed as well.

[marcane_1973]

Looks like we have a closed eyewall to stay for awhile now. I hate to see what September brings.

[jwayne]

[quote="hicksta"]jwayne where did he say this? not saying he didn't just wanting to read more into it.[/quote]


paid site. Currently going with hit between Brownsville and Corpus. Concerned about upper coast b/c of gfdl.

[Ivanhater]

36 hr Nogaps...further north so far..watch out souther Haiti!

[hicksta]

Nogaps, isnt really the best tropical model but it will be interesting on how the 12z plays out

[Aric Dunn]

concentric eyewalls.. ERC is starting... when it comes out of it.. we may have a cat 4 or 5 possibly... ??

over the next 12 to 18 hours

[Sanibel]

Wait for pressure drops to confirm Aric.

Anemometer knocked out on Martinique in gusts.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171641
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 45 20070817
163400 1603N 06159W 6974 03162 0114 +060 +060 119067 067 040 010 03
163430 1603N 06201W 6976 03162 0108 +063 +063 115065 067 038 014 00
163500 1603N 06204W 6972 03164 0111 +060 +060 112064 066 035 014 00
163530 1604N 06206W 6978 03159 0111 +060 +060 114062 062 036 017 00
163600 1604N 06208W 6975 03155 0107 +062 +062 112063 065 036 017 00
163630 1604N 06210W 6967 03169 0107 +061 +061 105069 073 036 015 00
163700 1604N 06213W 6981 03153 0117 +056 +056 096070 072 036 016 00
163730 1604N 06215W 6977 03157 0107 +063 +063 099069 070 035 010 03
163800 1605N 06218W 6974 03160 0112 +060 +060 096069 070 038 011 00
163830 1605N 06220W 6975 03161 0126 +050 +050 095069 071 044 045 03
163900 1605N 06222W 6971 03163 0118 +054 +054 092072 075 045 016 00
163930 1605N 06225W 6978 03156 0116 +056 +056 093068 069 045 014 03
164000 1605N 06227W 6967 03166 0101 +066 +066 092071 072 043 038 03
164030 1606N 06229W 6977 03152 0118 +055 +055 093071 073 044 039 03
164100 1606N 06232W 6977 03152 0109 +059 +059 095075 076 043 045 03
164130 1606N 06234W 6975 03158 0101 +066 +066 097074 075 043 030 03
164200 1606N 06237W 6976 03154 0120 +053 +053 100070 071 045 014 03
164230 1606N 06239W 6973 03158 0119 +054 +054 095067 068 999 999 03
164300 1606N 06241W 6971 03161 0120 +052 +052 097067 069 045 037 03
164330 1607N 06244W 6976 03158 0111 +060 +060 102065 067 045 010 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 16:41Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 45
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
16:34:00 16.05N 61.98W 697.4 mb 3,162 m 1011.4 mb From 119° (ESE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 40 kts* 10 mm/hr*
16:34:30 16.05N 62.02W 697.6 mb 3,162 m 1010.8 mb From 115° (ESE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 38 kts 14 mm/hr
16:35:00 16.05N 62.07W 697.2 mb 3,164 m 1011.1 mb From 112° (ESE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 35 kts 14 mm/hr
16:35:30 16.07N 62.10W 697.8 mb 3,159 m 1011.1 mb From 114° (ESE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 36 kts 17 mm/hr
16:36:00 16.07N 62.13W 697.5 mb 3,155 m 1010.7 mb From 112° (ESE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 36 kts 17 mm/hr
16:36:30 16.07N 62.17W 696.7 mb 3,169 m 1010.7 mb From 105° (ESE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 36 kts 15 mm/hr
16:37:00 16.07N 62.22W 698.1 mb 3,153 m 1011.7 mb From 96° (E) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 36 kts 16 mm/hr
16:37:30 16.07N 62.25W 697.7 mb 3,157 m 1010.7 mb From 99° (E) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 35 kts* 10 mm/hr*
16:38:00 16.08N 62.30W 697.4 mb 3,160 m 1011.2 mb From 96° (E) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 38 kts 11 mm/hr
16:38:30 16.08N 62.33W 697.5 mb 3,161 m 1012.6 mb From 95° (E) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 44 kts* 45 mm/hr*
16:39:00 16.08N 62.37W 697.1 mb 3,163 m 1011.8 mb From 92° (E) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 45 kts 16 mm/hr
16:39:30 16.08N 62.42W 697.8 mb 3,156 m 1011.6 mb From 93° (E) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 45 kts* 14 mm/hr*
16:40:00 16.08N 62.45W 696.7 mb 3,166 m 1010.1 mb From 92° (E) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 43 kts* 38 mm/hr*
16:40:30 16.10N 62.48W 697.7 mb 3,152 m 1011.8 mb From 93° (E) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 44 kts* 39 mm/hr*
16:41:00 16.10N 62.53W 697.7 mb 3,152 m 1010.9 mb From 95° (E) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 43 kts* 45 mm/hr*
16:41:30 16.10N 62.57W 697.5 mb 3,158 m 1010.1 mb From 97° (E) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 43 kts* 30 mm/hr*
16:42:00 16.10N 62.62W 697.6 mb 3,154 m 1012.0 mb From 100° (E) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 45 kts* 14 mm/hr*
16:42:30 16.10N 62.65W 697.3 mb 3,158 m 1011.9 mb From 95° (E) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) - -
16:43:00 16.10N 62.68W 697.1 mb 3,161 m 1012.0 mb From 97° (E) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 45 kts* 37 mm/hr*
16:43:30 16.12N 62.73W 697.6 mb 3,158 m 1011.1 mb From 102° (ESE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 45 kts 10 mm/hr
At 16:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 18 miles (28 km) to the WNW (282°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
At 16:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 55 miles (88 km) to the SW (218°) from Salem, Montserrat.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .68c-62.73

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[marcane_1973]

concentric eyewalls.. ERC is starting... when it comes out of it.. we may have a cat 4 or 5 possibly... ??

over the next 12 to 18 hours

And....Poor Jamaica What a lashing they might get. I hope they are ready.

[Ivanhater]

48 hr

[SouthFloridawx]

Can you say, pinhole eye?

[jacindc]

48 hr

Am I the only one not seeing any of these NOGAPS images?

EDIT: Oops, never mind. IE wanted me to say it was okay to view something from a site with security certificate problems. Once I did that, they're displaying. In case anyone else runs into the same thing....

[Evil Jeremy]

Here is a simple rhyme:

"When you see a pinhole eye,
Then a storm is in RI!"

[Cyclone1]

Oh, geez not a pinhole eye! That's the most dreaded eye there is!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see them. It shows the storm center on the east side of Jamaica in 48 hrs.

[Evil Jeremy]

I can see them perfectly fine!