CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canetracker]

GFDL Kills N.O now..

If you go back and research the past couple of runs, it has been trending to toward louisiana / upper texas.

[Opal storm]

Dean is moving rapidly to the west, I have a hard time imagining the latest GFDL verifying.

[Brent]

and the spread gets even bigger... Mexico to almost New Orleans. Lovely.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

New Orleans/Louisiana and Texas residents need to prepare
NOW for a possible major hurricane.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL Kills N.O now..

more like central Louisiana and not N.O.

Umm NO dirty side bigtime..

[Derek Ortt]

that run hits Baton Rouge... the only part of Louisiana not to be hit from 2005

[Opal storm]

GFDL Kills N.O now..

more like central Louisiana and not N.O.

Well...NO is just on the east side of the track.

[jabman98]

Just got back from my local Kroger in Houston. Store employees were talking to each other about how water is just flying off the shelves. There was still plenty of water there, but the aisle was busy with everyone grabbing a few gallons. Everyone around me at the checkout counter had water, tuna and non-perishable snacks. I guess this is a good sign that people are paying attention and stocking up early.

Dean is looking impressive. I think it's going to be an interesting weekend of watching here in Houston.

Edited to fix grammar.

[Bane]

Stock up on gas reserves now!

[baygirl_1]

I'm scared to death and crying my eyes out. I can't get in touch with my twin sister or my mother! I'm scared. I don't want to lose them! Please please go away storm. oh god keep it away I can't take this.

Calm down. I know the feeling of panic when a storm like this is bearing down on loved ones (Charley, Andrew, Katrina, etc...) Take a deep breath. There's still time to contact them. Panicking isn't going to help them or you. Also, the news in Jamaica must have info about the storm for them to check out. I hope you get in touch with them very soon. I'll add them to my prayers. (We visited Jamaica last Spring and it is lovely.)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 171740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/17:17:00Z
B. 14 deg 46 min N
063 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb 2763 m
D. 110 kt
E. 011 deg 010 nm
F. 107 deg 124 kt
G. 011 deg 011 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 7 C/ 3046 m
J. 19 C/ 3040 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 124 KT N QUAD 17:13:30 Z

Storm DEAN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 124KT (142.6mph 229.7km/h) In N Quadrant At 17:13:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 111.6KT (128.3mph 206.7km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 17, 2007 1:17:00 PM (Fri, 17 Aug 2007 17:17:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 14° 46' N 063° 16' W (14.8°N 63.3°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 110KT (126.5MPH 203.7km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 010nm (11.5miles) From Center At Bearing 011°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 124KT (142.6mph 229.7km/h) From 107°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 011nm (12.6 miles) From Center At Bearing 011°
Minimum pressure: 966 mb (28.53in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 17nm (19.6 mi 31.5km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Extremeweatherguy]

and the spread gets even bigger... Mexico to almost New Orleans. Lovely.

yep. The bottom line is that basically we still have no idea. Mexico to Louisiana still looks to be the overall target and HOPEFULLY we will have a better consensus come tomorrow or Sunday.

[Pearl River]

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
GFDL Kills N.O now..
more like central Louisiana and not N.O.

With the state of the levee's in New Orleans and surrounding areas it won't take a direct hit to cause problems. Constant strong e, ese winds will pile all kinds of water thru the MRGO and Lake Pontchartrain.

[HouTXmetro]

Oh boy, so do we have a situation where we take the average or will either or situation might play out?

[canetracker]

Local met on Channel 4 said it all depends on the incoming low in the gulf, if it sticks around a while or moves faster allowing high pressure to come in. She thinks we should know better by Sunday.


Personally I think we will have a better idea on Sunday too. Any mets care to elaborate on what they think?

[Huckster]

Does anyone have any idea on what the GFDL is now showing as far as intensity goes?

[RL3AO]

Cat 4 at 5 at this pace

[Extremeweatherguy]

Oh boy, so do we have a situation where we take the average or will either or situation might play out?

Hard to tell. In the end, a track in the middle of the models is most likely (and that is what the NHC forecasts by most of the time). We will just have to see what happens. I really, really hope there is more of a consensus by Sunday.

[SouthFloridawx]

Check my above link, I posted.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Dean is moving rapidly to the west, I have a hard time imagining the latest GFDL verifying.

That is part of the problem Opal. The faster Dean moves, the quicker he is outrunning the synoptics that would make him prog west. The rige needs time to run in tangent with him, so it stays north of him, essentially pinning him from being able to go north. If he outruns the "oozing" of the high pressure ridge, he can reach the periphery of the ridge, which actually helps to steer him north since the airflow around ridges goes clockwise.

Additionally, if he goes fast, he will get awfully close awfully fast to the weakness being caused by the Low to the west of the ridge.