CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Re: 12z Global Models GFDL,Landfall in Louisiana

#6301 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:52 pm

Image

12Z GFDL lanfall intensity for Louisiana in the 920mbs
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6302 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:52 pm

Folks look off the african coast we have game once again!This wave looks very impressive.12z CMC and the GFS develope tropical cyclones in the comg days in the atlantic basin.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Advisories Only

#6303 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:52 pm

HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1745 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W AT 17/1745Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W AT 17/1745Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI




985
WTNT34 KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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#6304 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:52 pm

126 hr. HWRF: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

and here is a loop... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looks like it is making a run for the south or central TX coast.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6305 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:52 pm

125 MPH comfirmed! Catagory 3 on the new advisory!
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6306 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:52 pm

The satellite presentation seems to be rapidly improving... it seems to be getting bigger and more symmetric!
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6307 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:53 pm

DEAN 125MPH!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: Re:

#6308 Postby artist » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:53 pm

[quote="NCSUwpackI'm scared to death and crying my eyes out. I can't get in touch with my twin sister or my mother! I'm scared. I don't want to lose them! Please please go away storm. oh god keep it away I can't take this.[/quote]


Try to calm down for their sakes when youtalk to them. Just let them know everything you know about what is going on with Dean and that they need to prepare now and find higher ground if they are low and a safe shelter if that is needed. Tell them to get all their important documents to take with them if they need to go other places for shelter, actually either way.
Stay calm for their sake and I know they will get through this safely. I have a friend that also has family in Jamaica. My prayers are with you and yours.
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Re:

#6309 Postby Sabanic » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:53 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.



Not to be argumentive in any way, but I have to completely disagree with that. We have been on the east side of Frederic & Elana, and on the west of Ivan & Dennis, and the NE side is worst by far.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6310 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:54 pm

Special Advisory coming out now
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Re:

#6311 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:54 pm

Category 4 by 8 PM anyone?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6312 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:54 pm

SPECIAL ADVISORY!!!! 125 MPH!!! Should be a Cat 4 very soon.
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#6313 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:55 pm

Pressure is estimated at 961 millibars.
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Re: Global Models GFDL,Lousiana UKMET,Mexico

#6314 Postby Sabanic » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:55 pm

Could be, but for now it's anyone's guess
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Re:

#6315 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:55 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
I wouldn't call the convection weak.
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#6316 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:56 pm

URNT15 KNHC 171754
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 52 20070817
174400 1554N 06427W 6973 03157 0067 +090 +063 068055 057 041 004 00
174430 1556N 06428W 6956 03177 0074 +084 +077 068059 059 043 004 00
174500 1557N 06430W 6969 03166 0077 +085 +073 067058 059 042 004 00
174530 1559N 06432W 6968 03168 0078 +087 +065 066056 057 041 005 00
174600 1601N 06434W 6967 03174 0078 +088 +059 063058 059 040 005 00
174630 1602N 06435W 6973 03165 0086 +083 +052 061059 060 040 005 00
174700 1604N 06437W 6965 03179 0094 +079 +054 064059 060 999 999 03
174730 1606N 06438W 6973 03168 0098 +076 +061 069058 059 041 005 03
174800 1608N 06438W 6967 03175 0098 +077 +055 070057 058 041 005 00
174830 1611N 06438W 6963 03185 0100 +078 +053 071058 058 040 005 00
174900 1613N 06438W 6961 03184 0099 +078 +053 071057 057 038 005 00
174930 1615N 06438W 6960 03187 0095 +082 +049 071055 056 039 005 00
175000 1617N 06438W 6960 03189 0096 +080 +050 072056 056 037 005 00
175030 1619N 06438W 6961 03190 0098 +080 +050 072056 056 038 005 00
175100 1622N 06438W 6960 03190 0098 +081 +050 074056 057 039 004 00
175130 1624N 06438W 6968 03182 0106 +075 +050 074057 058 041 004 00
175200 1626N 06438W 6973 03174 0107 +072 +049 074056 056 038 005 00
175230 1628N 06439W 6967 03176 0105 +076 +050 073056 056 040 005 00
175300 1630N 06439W 6959 03188 0106 +075 +051 073056 057 039 005 00
175330 1631N 06439W 6965 03181 0108 +075 +052 074055 055 035 005 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:54Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 52
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:44:00 15.90N 64.45W 697.3 mb 3,157 m 1006.7 mb From 68° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 41 kts 4 mm/hr
17:44:30 15.93N 64.47W 695.6 mb 3,177 m 1007.4 mb From 68° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 43 kts 4 mm/hr
17:45:00 15.95N 64.50W 696.9 mb 3,166 m 1007.7 mb From 67° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 42 kts 4 mm/hr
17:45:30 15.98N 64.53W 696.8 mb 3,168 m 1007.8 mb From 66° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
17:46:00 16.02N 64.57W 696.7 mb 3,174 m 1007.8 mb From 63° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
17:46:30 16.03N 64.58W 697.3 mb 3,165 m 1008.6 mb From 61° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
17:47:00 16.07N 64.62W 696.5 mb 3,179 m 1009.4 mb From 64° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
17:47:30 16.10N 64.63W 697.3 mb 3,168 m 1009.8 mb From 69° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 41 kts* 5 mm/hr*
17:48:00 16.13N 64.63W 696.7 mb 3,175 m 1009.8 mb From 70° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
17:48:30 16.18N 64.63W 696.3 mb 3,185 m 1010.0 mb From 71° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
17:49:00 16.22N 64.63W 696.1 mb 3,184 m 1009.9 mb From 71° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 38 kts 5 mm/hr
17:49:30 16.25N 64.63W 696.0 mb 3,187 m 1009.5 mb From 71° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 39 kts 5 mm/hr
17:50:00 16.28N 64.63W 696.0 mb 3,189 m 1009.6 mb From 72° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 37 kts 5 mm/hr
17:50:30 16.32N 64.63W 696.1 mb 3,190 m 1009.8 mb From 72° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 38 kts 5 mm/hr
17:51:00 16.37N 64.63W 696.0 mb 3,190 m 1009.8 mb From 74° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
17:51:30 16.40N 64.63W 696.8 mb 3,182 m 1010.6 mb From 74° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 41 kts 4 mm/hr
17:52:00 16.43N 64.63W 697.3 mb 3,174 m 1010.7 mb From 74° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 38 kts 5 mm/hr
17:52:30 16.47N 64.65W 696.7 mb 3,176 m 1010.5 mb From 73° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
17:53:00 16.50N 64.65W 695.9 mb 3,188 m 1010.6 mb From 73° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 39 kts 5 mm/hr
17:53:30 16.52N 64.65W 696.5 mb 3,181 m 1010.8 mb From 74° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 35 kts 5 mm/hr
At 17:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 204 miles (328 km) to the SSE (148°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 161 miles (258 km) to the SE (144°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .65c-64.65

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).
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#6317 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:56 pm

CMC 12z has Dean wiggling all across the Carib and hitting northern MX. and then develops two systems right behind Dean out in the Atlantic. I'm not buying it with all the NW jogs, it nearly hits Hispaniola.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6318 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:56 pm

Pressure down to 961.
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#6319 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:57 pm

LATEST:

Image
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#6320 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:57 pm

new information...Dean now a 125mph Category 3!!!
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