CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

One note about the GFS... the ensemble mean has been well north of the operatonal GFS

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter, I wouldn't recommend that advice. GFDl has been MONEY for NHC. I would pay more attention to it than anything else.

If that is the case then why do they refer to the other models when they have their discussions? I don't buy it. As matter a fact I don't buy for any model this far out. The are just way too many factors that must come into play for that run to pan out. It has been back and forth too much with this storm. The other models have been more consistent. Anyway we shall see by tomorrow.

[Pearl River]

Please don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the GFDL is the "Man" and I know everything atmospheric wise is totally different, but it did peg Katrina's WSW movement across Fl and the NHC at that point wasn't buying it and I know it has blown several in the past, but let's not just throw it out the window, it will change several more times.

[maxx9512]

Dean looks to north of the forecast points shown on visable loops. He is close to reaching 15N now. Points show Dean getting there at 65.5W. Not a big deal now but in the end it could be, no? Any thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wonder if this fast intensification in the eastern caribbean will have any effect on the 18z or 0z model tracks?

[Stormcenter]

Maybe it's time to discount the GFDL for the moment especially with all of the
other models trending much further south then it. I could see if the other models
continued the northward trend but that is not the case here. Unless Of course the
GFDL is on the money 5 days out. I just have hard time buying into that because it
keeps on shifting north and east with every run.

I can guarantee you the NHC is not discounting it. With a storm like this approaching the GOM all of the reliable models have to be taken into consideration.

I'm not saying they should and believe me I know they won't. I'm only saying that it is
the odd man out right now and they should also make a note of that.

[Thunder44]

A drosponde in the eyewall reported a pressure of 957mb.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, thats another model aiming towards TX/MX border.

Here's a loop of the HWRF: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Based on where that loop ends and the direction the storm is moving, I would argue to say that looks more like a south TX hit. JMO. Definitely further north than the GFS though.

So has the HWRF shifted South of the previous run?

[Sabanic]

Understood. Let's just all continue to do what we are doing, and monitor closely, and pray for those that are, and will be affected

[HURAKAN]

Latest: Convection bursting around the center.

[CronkPSU]

I don't even think its possible for Dean to beat Wilma's pressure because of the gradient.

Wilma was once-in-a-lifetime event.

doubtful, I bet we see it broken in the next 5 years

[sweetpea]

I just spoke to my father about 30 minutes ago. He is just outside Salinas, PR in a small town called Coqui, which is on the south side of the island. He said that it was starting to get very windy there. But that they hadn't had any rain yet.

[canegrl04]

A drosponde in the eyewall reported a pressure of 957mb.

Hes in a bombing phase right now.Maybe cat 4 before 5pm

[tndefender]

The HWRF moves Dean north of Jamaica and then veers it due west into the YP. With the hurricane approaching the SWestern periphery of the ridge by then, this will be the interesting point of "will it or won't it". As we saw with Rita and Ivan, you never can be for certain what will transpire, even from 1 or 2 days in, much less 4 or 5.

Interesting tidbit from Dr. Jeff Master's blog:

Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Gilbert intensified to a Category 3 hurricane as it passed south of Haiti, and made a direct hit on Jamaica, passing the entire length of the island. Gilbert then began a remarkable rapid intensification spurt as it moved over the Cayman islands into the Western Caribbean, reaching an all-time record low pressure of 888 mb before it slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan tracked a bit further south in the Caribbean, but was also a Category 5 storm after it passed Jamaica.

[Brent]

One note about the GFS... the ensemble mean has been well north of the operatonal GFS

What bothers me about the GFS is it has Dean as an open wave near Jamaica... and then very weak as it moves westward towards the Yucatan. I would tend to think a strong hurricane would not go straight west like that, which is why I don't like it.

Also remember last night, the stronger it had Dean, the further north it went. The lowest pressure I believe was on the run that took it up to Brownsville. It's something to think about.

[sevenleft]

A drosponde in the eyewall reported a pressure of 957mb.

Yeah, what time? Cuz I'm pretty sure they have been flying home.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, thats another model aiming towards TX/MX border.

Here's a loop of the HWRF: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Based on where that loop ends and the direction the storm is moving, I would argue to say that looks more like a south TX hit. JMO. Definitely further north than the GFS though.

So has the HWRF shifted South of the previous run?

You can compare the 12z run to the previous runs below,

12z loop = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z loop = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

0z loop = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

One big difference is that it is a bit faster than previous runs. It is not further south though..the runs are pretty similar in terms of track.

[wxmann_91]

GFS Ensembles



http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/track_ens.html

[Innotech]

A drosponde in the eyewall reported a pressure of 957mb.

Yeah, what time? Cuz I'm pretty sure they have been flying home.

you actl ike thats a hard thing to believe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Ensembles are interesting, but as one small note..those are 6z Ensembles and not 12z.