CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

I think that was the lowest level that there was data... surface pressure likely wasn't 957 from the dropsonde

[Canelaw99]

12z EC out to 24hrs: pretty much takes it NW from it is now and very near Puerto Rico and Domican Republic:

And what would cause it to go that direction all of a sudden??? What is the EC, exactly? Thanks

[Derek Ortt]

TAFB has a T number of 5.5/5.5

I have no clue what the SSD met was doing to derive a 4.5... unless he was using an eye pattern

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

12z EC out to 24hrs: pretty much takes it NW from it is now and very near Puerto Rico and Domican Republic:

Love to see that... I went to school at Plymouth

[Thunder44]

12z EC out to 48hrs, just East of Jamaica:

[Steve]

GFDL takes a massive storm into lower Terrebonne Parish, LA. That's the neighboring parish to where I live (Lafourche). Terrebonne was largely spared in Katrina as was Lafourche. There was substantial flooding in lower Terrebonne Parish (south of the Houma airport and points toward Chauvin, Cocodrie, Montegut, etc) due to water piling up with Hurricane Rita. All of lower Lafourche and lower Terrebonne are basically highways with about a mile of land off of each side of the highway, levees, then open water. Don't think of the Louisiana you see on a map of the United States because it doesn't look anything remotely like it did in the past. There is pretty much no levee protection and no coastal barrier islands left (they're all sandbars now). There are some smaller levees (12-15") north of Golden Meadow and then there is the Intracoastal Canal which cuts through Larose, Louisiana (about 12 miles south of where I live). Clearly if the GFDL track were to verify, there would be no way to stay in Lafource unless you were as far north as Thibodaux. All of Terrebonne would have to be evacuated and most of St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Morgan City, Patterson, etc.). People outside of south Louisiana don't realize the perils that oil and gas canals, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion have done to all of these areas that were basically hurricane proof 50 years ago. It's sad, but it's going to be a long time before it gets fixed.

And for those of you who don't think it should be fixed, just remember that many natural gas pipes are now floating in the water 3" above the sea bottom where they used to be buried under the sand. 1/5th of our nation's energy comes through this infrastructure. The estimated fix is +/- $60,000,000,000 just for the oil infrastructure.

Fortunately GFDL appears to be an outlier at this point. But if there is one other place you don't want a hurricane to hit besides the upper TX Coast if you value reasonable energy prices, it's south Central Louisiana. Trust me.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

LATEST: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST AROUND THE EYE.

[HURAKAN]

THE LAST 8 HOURS

[artist]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

the satellite signature has actually deteriorated slightly, but I have no clue how in the world one would get a lower data T number.

I suspect this will undergo an EWRC in the not too distant future then really take off and expand greatly in size

could it be since there are less t number sources now?

[Thunder44]

12z EC out 72hrs, just south of Central Cuba, looks like it goes north of Jamaica this run:

[WmE]

I noticed a burst of very cold convection around the eye (-80 to -85C)

[Extremeweatherguy]

what is the EC? Do you mean the Euro/ECMWF?

[tolakram]

Ragged still but looks to be increasing in strength. IF I read this image correctly.

[txwatcher91]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

the satellite signature has actually deteriorated slightly, but I have no clue how in the world one would get a lower data T number.

I suspect this will undergo an EWRC in the not too distant future then really take off and expand greatly in size

could it be since there are less t number sources now?

On TWC they said that recon reported a 2 mile wide and a 20 mile wide in Dean.

[artist]

yep - they mentioned that in the vortex message - 1 closed and one open sw

[Thunder44]

what is the EC? Do you mean the Euro/ECMWF?

Yeah, I'm posting the 12z run of the ECMWF from the Plymouth Site, it comes out sooner.

Out to day 4, it goes west to over Yucatan:

[artist]

next flight is?

[Innotech]

Dean is going to open a visible monstrous eye very very soon.

[RL3AO]

I think it is a 2200 takeoff, 0000 arrival.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm. Initially this run of the EURO seems to be a bit further north than the 00z run was, but then by day 4/5 it changes to strange WSW path over the Yucatan and into the southern BOC. Doesn't seem likely IMO.