CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Steve
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#6541 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:23 pm

>>That's all true, but you fail to mention one important fact which is natural subsidence. Even without any external influences, coastal Louisiana would be sinking into the sea just as it has done for millions of years. Probably the thing which has hastened it the most is harnassing the Mississippi River, which used to provide new sediements to the Louisiana coastline instead of dumping them into the deepwater just outside the mouth.

Controlling and dredging the river rather than allowing it to migrate back and forth to the Atchafalaya keeps sediment/silt from replenishing itself. However, the delta was growing even into the 1960's (while we were losing some stuff elsewhere). The biggest problems were the canals that crisscross the marshes and allowed the saltwater to come in and kill the vegetation (marsh is estimated to reduce surge by 1' per mile) and the loss of barrier islands which gave immediate protection. Louisiana's coast hasn't been evolving for millions of years, because it's not that old. It's in the "tens of thousands" of years at best because it was all built up by river sediment (which naturally sinks and is replenished). There are actually some projects in their infancy to pipe out the silt into some of the barrier marshes with attempts to eventually seed them for the hold you get with vegetative roots. We'll see.

here's a shot of the southshore pre and post Katrina. Like I said, it's all pretty much open water now.

Image

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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6542 Postby Annie Oakley » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:24 pm

Dare I say...this is one beautiful force of nature........thanks storm2k for keeping us up on developments......gives us time to prepare etc.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6543 Postby weatherman21 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:24 pm

I have noticed a trend in the GFDL model which has been pushing the forecasting track more to the right and also further north with each run. I observed the WRF/NAM last night which only goes out about 3 1/2 days that called for a more westward motion similar to the GFS; however, the new WRF model run is now more in line with the GFDL. The GFDL model performed well last season and it will be interesting to see how it does with this cyclone.

GFDL Model Run at 12Z Today:
Image
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6544 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:24 pm

The way the GFDL track has been moving north and eastward lately it could be over the Florida big ben on the next run or so.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6545 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:24 pm

kozzieman wrote:If Dean did take the path of that model bringing it into central LA wouldn't that put coastal MS on the dirty side of the storm or would the storm be far enough to the W of coastal MS to not cause coastal MS any problems?


If it followed the GFDL Handcock County would be in deep trouble if it comes in as a major.. a lot would depend on the size but we feel the effects of anything east of Long 92 over here on the MS coast...
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Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#6546 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:25 pm

french news is reporting that the overall damage is not that bad, though there were many roofs blown off and a lot of flooding.

Landslide report not yet confirmed by French news
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6547 Postby jaxfladude » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:26 pm

weatherman21 wrote:I have noticed a trend in the GFDL model which has been pushing the forecasting track more to the right and also further north with each run. I observed the WRF/NAM last night which only goes out about 3 1/2 days that called for a more westward motion similar to the GFS; however, the new WRF model run is now more in line with the GFDL. The GFDL model performed well last season and it will be interesting to see how it does with this cyclone.

GFDL Model Run at 12Z Today:
Image



:double: NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
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Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#6548 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:27 pm

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-172215-

BULLETIN-
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 3...MAJOR HURRICANE
WITH 125 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 145 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX...260 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...300
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...AND 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PONCE. DEAN
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS
FOR HURRICANE DEAN.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF ST
CROIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL LOCAL
INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...AS ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN INTENSITY...COULD RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASED RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND PASSAGES...AND VERY HIGH SURF ALONG THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
ARE URGED TO NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN
SOME TREES AND POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND THE SOUTH
HALF OF PUERTO RICO. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY SECURED THEIR VESSELS OR MOVED THEM TO SAFE
HARBOR ALONG THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE 39 TO 45 MPH...34 TO 40 KNOT...
RANGE WERE ALREADY AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF ST
CROIX...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY WESTWARD TO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ST CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO ITS SOUTH...AND BY NOON ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...REACHING
14 TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND UP TO 10 FEET
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
COULD MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COASTS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OUTER RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH DEAN...WAVE
RUN-UP ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SHOULD
RESULT IN TIDES OF ONE TO TWO FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE AT ST CROIX WILL OCCUR AT 813 PM TONIGHT AND THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR PLAYA DE PONCE WILL OCCUR AT 715 PM.

...HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH WAVES CREATED FROM THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL COAST
LINES AND WILL INCREASE...WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE EAST
AND SOUTH COASTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HURRICANE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
INVADE THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 18 FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
REEFS AND COASTLINES. THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. PERSONS
ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THIS DANGEROUS SURF.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 615 PM AST THIS
EVENING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6549 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:27 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:CAT 3's can stay there for a long time, it is cat 5's that usually wane. But it is really about what the synoptics around a system are that will dictate its endurance. It is rare that a system can have perfect conditions for very long. Either shear gets involved, or dry air can get entrained, or it sits too long in one place, causing upwelling of cooler waters... it is all a fluid state. Dean though looks to be primed, and the environment as well, to maintain intensity or grow over the next 2 days, barring land interaction.


I agree... I think there will be some land interactions from DR and Haiti. They will disrupt the inflow from the north, as there is mountainous terrain. Other than that, I would say, I agree with the Met that posted about, how far from a weakness a strong system needs to be.

I wonder what interaction the short-wave pulse coming out of Canada, heading southeast will have on the upper low, and ridge. Should be interesting to watch.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.html

Also, I have a gut feeling that, people in the gulf need to pay attention to this one. If that ridge building over the Southern US maintains strength, and the ridge in the Atlantic can at least maintain it's intensity... I wonder if there will be anywhere for the ULL to go, but hang out to the north of the gulf.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Image
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6550 Postby Bluefrog » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:28 pm

***Cough Cough*** :eek: could we leave Mississippi out of this conversation please .... :wink:
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Re: Dean forecasts (Post personal forecasts here)

#6551 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:29 pm

I'm going to put this here also, so I can look back on it. It's not really a forecast, just a few thoughts.

I agree... I think there will be some land interactions from DR and Haiti. They will disrupt the inflow from the north, as there is mountainous terrain. Other than that, I would say, I agree with the Met that posted about, how far from a weakness a strong system needs to be.

I wonder what interaction the short-wave pulse coming out of Canada, heading southeast will have on the upper low, and ridge. Should be interesting to watch.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.html

Also, I have a gut feeling that, people in the gulf need to pay attention to this one. If that ridge building over the Southern US maintains strength, and the ridge in the Atlantic can at least maintain it's intensity... I wonder if there will be anywhere for the ULL to go, but hang out to the north of the gulf.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Image
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6552 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:31 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Dean will need to slow down considerably to make any abrupt change in direction. It's kinda like a fast moving car... you need to put the brakes on a little to make a sharp turn.



that may not be completely true... if dean continues to haul the mail like he is, then he could close the gap on the cut off near florida and find that weakness... just something to think about.. we are not talking about a trough with this...




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#6553 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:32 pm

>>Handcock County

uh huh huh /sorry

:D

Btw Frank, allegedly Beast (Bryan) had a Jim Cantori sighting over your way per George. I haven't verified it yet, but that's the word on the streets.

Steve
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6554 Postby Agua » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:33 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Another thing... with a big mass like Dean has, momentum means something as well. If his forward momentum is moving in one direction, it wants to keep moving in that direction. -this also points to less likely of any scenario depicting abrupt changes in direction.


I'm not sure that's right. May be, but I don't know the physics behind it and that doesn't sound right.
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#6555 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:34 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6556 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:35 pm

GFS continues to bullseye. The model's performance so far should merit consideration for Dean's future track as accurate. Or at least a blend of GFDL and GFS with GFS being considered reliable.


If you are going to speculate storm mass behavior tendencies it would be in the poleward direction defying the High rather than any momentum theories. I believe the storm is guided by the surrounding synoptic rather than any centrifugal forward inertia mass momentum.
Last edited by Sanibel on Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6557 Postby Javlin » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:36 pm

RL3AO wrote:Its not moving that much more north than forecast.

Image


It looks that way when the NHC goes in and updates them every 3-6 hrs but there 5am pt. was 15.3N and 67W
now it looks that at 67W Dean might be at 16N barring any jogs in either direction.It will be interesting to see if the NHC changes there forcast at 5 but probably wait a couple more runs of the models.
Last edited by Javlin on Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6558 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:36 pm

Image

Dean is now at 15 and he wasn't supposed to be till 65.5, where the next forecast point is. Hopefully it's a wobble, but any track change here is greatly magnified as you extend out toward the GOM. THe question remains, where will Dean be when it gets to 65.5?
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#6559 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:37 pm

Can someone please post the link to the FSU site that has all the model animations available? I have the link at my home computer but can't find it at work. Thanks.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6560 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:37 pm

Eye is really beginning to clear now. It also has a nice ring tall clouds around it. I expect we will have a cat 4 within 12 hours.
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