CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Stratosphere747]

Can someone please post the link to the FSU site that has all the model animations available? I have the link at my home computer but can't find it at work. Thanks.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[canegrl04]

I noticed Dean has reached 15,too.Could be the more northward motion the GFDL is showing

[alienstorm]

I am going to say that Dean will clip the southeastern tip of Haiti. Also will reach the 20 north degree line at 80 degrees west.

[Brent]

Aiming close to Brownsville:

[fasterdisaster]

Latest

Absolutely amazing, looking more like a Category 4 by the second.

[whereverwx]

This is a four and a half hour loop of his eye.

[Canelaw99]

Here's an interesting project for any of y'all good with computer graphics and with the time to do it....take the NHC advisories with their forecast points, plot them, and then plot the actual points where Dean was. Then we could get a better sense of it, rather than looking at the updated every 3 or so hour points.

[msbee]

Luis
stay safe
I hope PR and vicinity get away as easy as St. Maarten did.

[fasterdisaster]

This is a four and a half hour loop of his eye.

Classic rapid intensification if I say so myself.

[otowntiger]

I've gotta say that this storm, area wise is really not all that big. In fact I'd say it may even be a little smaller than the average hurricane. Only 25 mile swath of 75+ winds is pretty darn small. Also for a strong cat 3 storm he definitely doesn't have an overly impressive satellite signature. All this is to say I'm surprised that there are sooo many comments about how big the storm is and how impressive he looks.

[hial2]

[img]

Dean is now at 15 and he wasn't supposed to be till 65.5, where the next forecast point is. Hopefully it's a wobble, but any track change here is greatly magnified as you extend out toward the GOM. THe question remains, where will Dean be when it gets to 65.5?

Minor track changes are to be expected..the problem is what will happen when it reaches Jamaica and the weakness caused by the ULL..assuming it's still there.
It all depends on the location of the ULL at that point in time..

[artist]

that would be very nice to see - I am always wanting to do that when one is headed possibly our way. Seems it would give a better feel of which model seems to be handling it better.

[sweetpea]

"300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...AND 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PONCE. "???? It can't be 300 miles southeast of both.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[Cape Verde]

Louisiana's coast hasn't been evolving for millions of years, because it's not that old. It's in the "tens of thousands" of years at best because it was all built up by river sediment (which naturally sinks and is replenished).

I don't know what you mean by "evolving" because it has been sinking for milliions of years. It's one of the reasons why it's a great place to explore for natural gas and oil. It's been replenished by river sediments until recently when we decided floods were bad.

There's a reason why Louisiana only has one beach. It's sinking. And it was sinking before Katrina. Like millions of years before Katrina.

[HURAKAN]

Is the NHC website down?

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Aric Dunn]

CHECK OUT THE IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATION!!! COMPARED TO THE EARLIER IMAGE

[CronkPSU]

5 PM update has the 5 day plot at 24.5 N 96 W, that would be right near the Tx/Mex border right?