CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tolakram]

Is the NHC website down?

Just slow. Everyone is refreshing, looking for the 5pm update.

[Brent]

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

[weatherman21]

GOES IR at 20:15Z


GOES Water Vapor at 20:15Z

[windstorm99]

[otowntiger]

This is a four and a half hour loop of his eye.

Classic rapid intensification if I say so myself.

Nah, not really.

[Aric Dunn]

this is the best its looked!!! WOW

[CronkPSU]

thanks as always Brent, I have no idea how you get the updates so quickly but I appreciate it, stops me from hitting refresh like a monkey on crack

[ftolmsteen]

CHECK OUT THE IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATION!!! COMPARED TO THE EARLIER IMAGE

Looks like that buoy will miss the north side of the eye. It might reach the southern eye wall, but obviously that's not going to be the strongest side.

[sealbach]

those are some good photos...thanks.

[windstorm99]

Aric i left you a pm.Adrian

[Ivanhater]

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

Interesting

[A1A]

GFS continues to bullseye. The model's performance so far should merit consideration for Dean's future track as accurate. Or at least a blend of GFDL and GFS with GFS being considered reliable.

The model maps that I've seen refer to the GFDL but not GFS. Where do you find the model map for GFS?

i.e. these links show for GFDL:
skeetobiteweather
sfwmd.gov

[cheezyWXguy]

I've gotta say that this storm, area wise is really not all that big. In fact I'd say it may even be a little smaller than the average hurricane. Only 25 mile swath of 75+ winds is pretty darn small. Also for a strong cat 3 storm he definitely doesn't have an overly impressive satellite signature. All this is to say I'm surprised that there are sooo many comments about how big the storm is and how impressive he looks.

Whats wrong with the satellite presentation? The eye is clearing, outflow goes out in every direction, and convection is deepening. Also, when Wilma was a category 5 at 185mph, 882mbs, hurricane winds only went out 15 miles

[cycloneye]

THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


From the 5 PM Discussion.I think NHC hint that likes GFDL but since is an outlier now,they are not jumping on it yet.

[Sanibel]

Edited by mf_dolphin
This could be good if Dean spends its energy here instead of further along. But what will probably happen is it will use this energy to become a bigger storm in the Gulf.

And Dean hasn't hit the best SST's yet.

[tolakram]

DMin and the eye is clearly back and the storm is looking better then ever.

[fasterdisaster]

LATEST INFRARED FLOATER:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Lookin good Dean!

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS is well left of its ensemble mean... the ensemble mean is near Houston... not the most comforting thing, though there is going to need to be a good weakness to get this to Houston

[fasterdisaster]

When is the next recon flight?

[vaffie]

the GFS is well left of its ensemble mean... the ensemble mean is near Houston... not the most comforting thing, though there is going to need to be a good weakness to get this to Houston

Why do you think that is, Derek?