CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Stormcenter]

Can you feel the love the NHC has for the GFDL in this statement.

While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be rule
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.

[crazycajuncane]

Whoa wasn't expecting the GFDL to move eastward like that. That track would asolutely obliterate Lafayette. Pro mets any thoughts on the GFDL track? Please tell me you don't think it can verify! Looks like I better start thinking about preparing regardless.

I think we could be in trouble here.

I think LA. will be okay. Just my 2 cents opinion.

I think it's way too early to think that. This far out we had Rita going into Brownsville, Texas... then we sat through the days of hype for the end of the world... Houston, Texas hit. Little did we know that family in Vermilion Parish, LA would be flooded out of their homes.

Way too early to count out anyone in LA with the GFDL runs... if every model had this thing into Mexico I wouldn't even worry about it, but there's something GFDL is grabbing on... the weakness. I think this is a SE TX worry as of now , but I wouldn't count anyone from MS,AL,TX, Mexico until we get a better feel of things late Sunday evening.

[RL3AO]

When is the next recon flight?

Take off in 2 hours.

[chadtm80]

This is a four and a half hour loop of his eye.

Thank You. Image made storm2k's homepage

[Aric Dunn]

EVERY IMAGE IS A BIG CHANGE FROM THE LAST.. WE ARE SEEING SOME MODERATE RI GOING ON.. SHOULD BE A CAT4 SOON

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm still thinking a Mexico landfall, just can't see all of those models being wrong that are pointing in that direction. ...I think central or northern mexico though is more likely than southern at this point....Although I think Mexico is the likely point of landfall, ya never know for sure with hurricanes until we get much closer.

[otowntiger]

I've gotta say that this storm, area wise is really not all that big. In fact I'd say it may even be a little smaller than the average hurricane. Only 25 mile swath of 75+ winds is pretty darn small. Also for a strong cat 3 storm he definitely doesn't have an overly impressive satellite signature. All this is to say I'm surprised that there are sooo many comments about how big the storm is and how impressive he looks.

Whats wrong with the satellite presentation? The eye is clearing, outflow goes out in every direction, and convection is deepening. Also, when Wilma was a category 5 at 185mph, 882mbs, hurricane winds only went out 15 miles

I didn't say there was anything wrong with it, just not as impressive as I've seen. It just seemed like everyone was talking as it was the most awesome hurricane ever. And my comments about the size were in response to some here claiming that it was huge. This storm may be a lot of things, but huge, relative to many other storms, its not.

[weatherman21]

The 5pm discussion reported that the next plane is to reach the hurricane by 0z/8pm tonight.

[Cyclone1]

Latest advisory shows no change in intesnity. Which means Dean isn't bombing out.

[KBBOCA]

Although this is a deadly storm and I am extremely concerned for all in its path, I too have to admit it is beautiful. Check out this latest sat image from weather underground, the way the storm is framed by all the islands. Awesome. Very worthy of being saved as a desktop image, etc.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... _sat_2.jpg

[hicksta]

Someone posted here that the average error 6 days out is around 200 miles. Models arent bulletproof they are just guides. Sometimes the safest places to be is in the middle of the cone 5 days out. But then again sometimes it aint .

I'm still thinking a Mexico landfall, just can't see all of those models being wrong that are pointing in that direction. ...I think central or northern mexico though is more likely than southern at this point....Although I think Mexico is the likely point of landfall, ya never know for sure with hurricanes until we get much closer.

[cheezyWXguy]

I've gotta say that this storm, area wise is really not all that big. In fact I'd say it may even be a little smaller than the average hurricane. Only 25 mile swath of 75+ winds is pretty darn small. Also for a strong cat 3 storm he definitely doesn't have an overly impressive satellite signature. All this is to say I'm surprised that there are sooo many comments about how big the storm is and how impressive he looks.

Whats wrong with the satellite presentation? The eye is clearing, outflow goes out in every direction, and convection is deepening. Also, when Wilma was a category 5 at 185mph, 882mbs, hurricane winds only went out 15 miles

I didn't say there was anything wrong with it, just not as impressive as I've seen. It just seemed like everyone was talking as it was the most awesome hurricane ever. And my comments about the size were in response to some here claiming that it was huge. This storm may be a lot of things, but huge, relative to many other storms, its not.

Well of course its not the best looking or biggest hurricane out there. But its a lot bigger now than this time yesterday, a lot stronger, and a lot better organized. At this time yesterday, we were talking about dry air intrusions, shear, and lack of an eye...look at the improvement

[cycloneye]

A. 18/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0404A DEAN
C. 17/2200Z
D. 15.1N 64.9W
E. 17/2300Z TO 18/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Evil Jeremy]

are the 0Z models going to have any new gulfstream data in them tonight?

[canegrl04]

THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


From the 5 PM Discussion.I think NHC hint that likes GFDL but since is an outlier now,they are not jumping on it yet.

NHC has been very reliable with its forecast tracks over the past several years.Maybe GFDL has alot to do with it

[vaffie]

Can you feel the love the NHC has for the GFDL in this statement.

While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be rule
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.

Maybe not the love but I can sense their great concern regarding the GFDL--because it's such an awesome model and it's so far off the consensus right now. At this rate I expect the storm, due in part to its strength, to continuously push against the ridge and nudge north for the time being. Whether the upper level lows are sufficiently strong to take it north of Brownsville is another story. A good benchmark appears to be Jamaica. Those models that take it over the northern half of Jamaica tend to hit Texas with a stronger storm that misses most of the Yucatan, while those in the southern half have a weaker storm heading for Mexico. The NHC takes it right through the center of the island and therefore lands at the Texas, Mexico border. It will be worth watching to see where it hits Jamaica. Poor jamaica.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

allen in '80 went just north or northern tip of jamaica, and made a texas landfall, doesnt mean it will do it again

[Ivanhater]

GFS ESEMBLE

[hsvwx]

We all know the NAM can be an unreliable tropical model. But just for fun, it once again shoots the gap with Dean and looks to be heading straight towards southern coast of Texas!!!

[canegrl04]

Can you feel the love the NHC has for the GFDL in this statement.

While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be rule
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.

The NHC has been using the GFDL as their biggest influence for quite awhile.Hasn't failed them yet.They have been pretty reliable with forecast tracks