CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[hsvwx]

Wow is all I can say for the GFS Ensembles. I knew they were further north than the operational, but not that far north.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm.. the GFS ensemble runs are interesting. I wonder why they are so vastly different from the operational run? That doesn't make sense to me. I am willing to bet that the operational GFS shifts to become more in line with the ensembles sometime this weekend...may be not as far north as Houston or Louisiana..but I bet that the GFS at least shifts to the south or central TX coast.

[fasterdisaster]

When is the next recon flight?

Take off in 2 hours.

Thanks.

[JenBayles]

Has anyone climbed Mt. Bastardi recently? Just curious what his take is on Dean's track.

[RL3AO]

Has anyone climbed Mt. Bastardi recently? Just curious what his take is on Dean's track.

I'm going to guess Long Island landfall as Cat 8?

[senorpepr]

Let's keep the fantasy recon obs off the forum. The staff takes this sort of thing VERY seriously... and we WILL remove the accounts of those posting invalid data as official.

[duris]

Has anyone climbed Mt. Bastardi recently? Just curious what his take is on Dean's track.

I'm going to guess Long Island landfall as Cat 8?

Regardless of the impending warning not to bash JB, that made me laugh.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Has anyone climbed Mt. Bastardi recently? Just curious what his take is on Dean's track.

He was thinking a final landfall near the Mexico/Texas border yesterday but has since decided to shift his prediction slightly further north today (He didn't say exactly where, but implied south of Houston and north of Brownsville). He also thinks it will become a large storm by landfall (more similar to a Katrina or Carla rather than a Charley or Camille).

[mf_dolphin]

Let's keep the fantasy recon obs off the forum. The staff takes this sort of thing VERY seriously... and we WILL remove the accounts of those posting invalid data as official.

I deleted them but I can't re-inforce enough the need to stick with facts and not speculation or jokes. People are going to under enough stress without this kind of thing being misread by the wrong person.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is going to be a long flight tonight. Is it a GIV flight?

[Stormcenter]

Can you feel the love the NHC has for the GFDL in this statement.

While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be rule
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.

The NHC has been using the GFDL as their biggest influence for quite awhile.Hasn't failed them yet.They have been pretty reliable with forecast tracks

I do believe it has failed them in the past maybe not as frequent as other models but it has.
Let's be realistic though we are still talking about a 5 plus day landfall. It or any model is just not going to hit the bulleyes that far out.

[superdeluxe]

That is very curious..why is the ensemble so far out of wack with the operational?

Anyone want to give a reasoning behind this? the ensemble more closely resembles GDFL

[Aric Dunn]

Keep and eye on this buoy tonight center is on a direct course to go over it!!

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.4 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.1 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 80.6 °F

[Canelaw99]

Hey Cyclone (or any other PR S2Kers )- just wondering what your local mets are expecting for PR as Dean passes to your south. My mother-in-law is there in San Juan visiting family until Sun., so I was just curious. Thanks!

[senorpepr]

This is going to be a long flight tonight. Is it a GIV flight?

No.

A. 18/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0404A DEAN
C. 17/2200Z
D. 15.1N 64.9W
E. 17/2300Z TO 18/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Here's a hint... GIV missions are flown by NOAA. Line B indicates this is an Air Force mission. Also, line F indicates a low-level flight. GIV missions fly at 41,000 to 45,000 ft to sample the whole atmosphere. Tonight's mission (Mission 4) is a standard AF fix mission.

[WxGuy1]

That is very curious..why is the ensemble so far out of wack with the operational?

Anyone want to give a reasoning behind this? the ensemble more closely resembles GDFL

Looking at the spaghetti plot, it looks more like the operational GFS is out of whack with the other ensemble runs. I'm not sure if there have been any stats with this, but it would be interesting to compare verification statistics between the operational GFS and the GFS ensemble mean (which is quite a bit northeast of the operational run). It's becoming increasingly apparent that ensemble modeling is a significant part of the future of modeling (and it's why the ensemble models like the FSU Super Ensemble, CONUS, and GUNA tend to be best in terms of verification), so that IS something to consider. Admittently, it's something that I should have been paying attn to, but to which I have not until now

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS is coming in.

00 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

06 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

[PTrackerLA]

Can someone explain the difference between the GFS operational and ensemble and which one is better to look at with regards to the track of a hurricane? I don't understand the disparity either.

[Aric Dunn]

radar presentation continues to improve as well as satellite !
the eyewall is becoming much more defined
latest radar







I wonder if the even deeper convection on the sat image in the eye wall is the "hot towers" ? that all the research has been conducted on

[superdeluxe]

Can someone explain the difference between the GFS operational and ensemble and which one is better to look at with regards to the track of a hurricane? I don't understand the disparity either.

PT, check out Wx's reply to me 2 posts up.