CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Eyewall]

just for you guys who are amazed at the eye
watch the IR and that will tell you if the eye is getting better formed because the sunset is creating a deep shadow in the eye and it makes it look as though its nice and clear

[Extremeweatherguy]

90 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

Very far south and very slow! I am not quite sure why this storm would slow down that much though. It just doesn't seem likely considering it's current speed.

[fasterdisaster]

Honestly I don't see why the GFS ever has any weight in the NHC's forecasts. They are rarely ever right it seems.

[RBDnhm]

Is that yellow "X" that hits Texas at Hour 72 the ULL that is supposed to protect the north Gulf Coast?

And we (at TX/LA border) want it to stay just where it is in relation to center of Dean?

Why does it start moving north when it hits Texas?

[TampaFl]

5:00pm Position:

[fasterdisaster]

just for you guys who are amazed at the eye
watch the IR and that will tell you if the eye is getting better formed because the sunset is creating a deep shadow in the eye and it makes it look as though its nice and clear

I know, and I did look at the IR and that also looks quite impressive, I'm not amazed by it though, it takes a lot to get me "amazed".

[fsusurfer]

hi hoooo hi hoooo, its off to mexico dean goes..... Serriously, this thing has been on a western slightly NNW course since it formed. I don't see it making to much of a deviation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is that yellow "X" that hits Texas at Hour 72 the ULL that is supposed to protect the north Gulf Coast?

And we (at TX/LA border) want it to stay just where it is in relation to center of Dean?

Why does it start moving north when it hits Texas?

The ULL will not protect us..it is the high that will. If the ULL is still near the TX coast as the storm is approaching, then the storm will likely turn north toward SE TX/SW LA. If it is not, and a high is there instead, then the storm should stay south.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think we're finally observing the formation of a true CDO - look at the blossoming cold convective "ring" around the clearing developing eye. The structure is improving, too. The trends are evident in shortwave and conventional IR imagery. I would not be surprised to see the development of a solid eyewall and "stadium" effect over the next 24 to 48 hours. Take a peek at the latest loops. A very well defined eye is becoming more visible and symmetric:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

A true "monster" is on its way to Category 4 status, in my opinion. Look at the classical signature outflow and inflow system, which is charismatic of intense hurricanes under good UL support. The convective "ring" should become more symmetrical, especially because of the current negligible mid-level shear and increasingly more conducive oceanic heat content.

[msbee]

latest storm report from St. Lucia by hurricane correspondent on St. Lucia..just posted

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

[storms in NC]

Is that yellow "X" that hits Texas at Hour 72 the ULL that is supposed to protect the north Gulf Coast?

And we (at TX/LA border) want it to stay just where it is in relation to center of Dean?

Why does it start moving north when it hits Texas?

The ULL will not protect us..it is the high that will. If the ULL is still near the TX coast as the storm is approaching, then the storm will likely turn north toward SE TX/SW LA. If it is not, and a high is there instead, then the storm should stay south.

That sound about right

[whereverwx]

Yeah, I'm sure we'll wake up to a category 4 tomorrow morning. This is a classic sunset image.

[Extremeweatherguy]

96 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is pretty clear that Dean will not be making a turn north on this run. He is too slow and too far south and it looks like he might just die over the southern Yucatan.

I am much more interested in seeing tonight's 00z run. It might have a chance to try to pull a different track since it will have new data to use. We shall see.

I also want to see the 18z ensembles and GFDL. If those are still north, then I think it is clear that the operational GFS is out of whack.


update - The one thing that does interest me from this run is that weakness. It is so very obvious that if the storm is as far north as the NHC is predicting that it will no doubt turn north or northwest at some point. The only way the storm would not do that is if it ended up being as slow and as far south as the 18z version of Dean is...not very likely IMO. I just cannot see the storm slowing that much and staying that far south..especially if this is a Cat. 4 or 5.

[cycloneye]

897
URNT15 KNHC 172200
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 01 20070817
215030 1742N 06448W 0103 00000 0095 +285 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
215100 1742N 06448W 0105 00000 0097 +285 +214 360000 000 999 999 23
215130 1742N 06448W 0104 00000 0096 +285 +214 360000 000 999 999 23
215200 1742N 06448W 0106 00000 0096 +284 +214 360000 000 999 999 23
215230 1742N 06448W 0105 00000 0096 +284 +214 360000 000 999 999 23
215300 1742N 06448W 0103 00000 0096 +284 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
215330 1742N 06448W 0105 00000 0097 +285 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
215400 1742N 06448W 0105 00000 0097 +284 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
215430 1742N 06448W 0106 00000 0096 +284 +211 360000 000 999 999 23
215500 1742N 06448W 0100 00000 0094 +283 +211 360000 000 999 999 23
215530 1742N 06448W 0106 00000 0096 +289 +214 360000 000 999 999 23
215600 1742N 06448W 0105 00000 0097 +287 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
215630 1742N 06448W 0106 00000 0095 +285 +212 360000 000 999 999 23
215700 1742N 06448W 0102 00000 0092 +285 +212 360000 000 999 999 23
215730 1742N 06448W 0099 00000 0090 +285 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
215800 1742N 06449W 0096 00000 0087 +285 +212 360000 000 999 999 23
215830 1742N 06449W 0093 00000 0084 +285 +211 360000 000 999 999 23
215900 1742N 06449W 0090 00000 0081 +286 +211 360000 000 999 999 23
215930 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0078 +291 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
220000 1742N 06449W 0085 00000 0077 +290 +216 360000 000 999 999 23
$$




Plane is taxing.

[KBBOCA]

New IR frame in, still improving:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Great loop. If you set trop forecast points to display you'll see the eye totally nails the latest forecast point. NHC is doing pretty well so far, especially when you consider how the models where shifting around so much and very uncertain two days ago. I hope the clarity increases and good forecasting continues -- that will save lives.

[Sabanic]

Agreed 100%. I believe it is already, but will give it a bit more time, and then trash it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

New IR frame in, still improving:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Great loop. If you set trop forecast points to display you'll see the eye totally nails the latest forecast point. NHC is doing pretty well so far, especially when you consider how the models where shifting around so much and very uncertain two days ago. I hope the clarity increases and good forecasting continues -- that will save lives.

They should hit the 6 hr marker at least..LOL

[miamicanes177]

since the GFS ensembles are so much further North, why is the operational one not? Who decides which track is going to be the operational one?

[HollynLA]

96 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is pretty clear that Dean will not be making a turn north on this run. He is too slow and too far south and it looks like he might just die over the southern Yucatan.

I am much more interested in seeing tonight's 00z run. It might have a chance to try to pull a different track since it will have new data to use. We shall see.

I also want to see the 18z ensembles and GFDL. If those are still north, then I think it is clear that the operational GFS is out of whack.

but could it be out of whack on so many consistent runs, wouldn't this be picked up by someone? Just curious and hoping this model does hold some solid credence.

[HURAKAN]