CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Dick Pache
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6821 Postby Dick Pache » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:34 pm

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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs=Plane is flying towards Dean

#6822 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:34 pm

126kts..... this will be an interesting flight
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#6823 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:34 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Wow- GFDL is all alone out there with its U.S. landfall according to that map. That's a lot of models that would be wrong and one that would be right- just looking at that one map. Hard to imainge that many models being so far off the mark- but we'll see.


too bad three of them that Derek considers basically worthless...would be nice if GFDL is coming in line with the others though (at least for our US members)
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=18z GFDL Near Galveston

#6824 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:34 pm

Yep that could have been the end of the rightward trend, but will wait to see what happens with the 00z models. Starting to look better for Louisiana.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs=Plane is flying towards Dean

#6825 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:233000 1456N 06508W 6990 02692 9525 +133 +133 036070 077 123 014 03
$$

123kts right at LCL.... interesting.
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Derek Ortt

#6826 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:35 pm

123 KT at the surface
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#6827 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:37 pm

that didn't take long...recon already found 140mph surface winds and it just got there
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=18z GFDL Near Galveston

#6828 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:37 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Even though it's near Galveston the rightward trend is over. Maybe the next few runs it will go even further South.
May be, but the GFDL has been shifting back and forth between Galveston and Louisiana for 4-5 runs now (first trending left and then right and now left again). That is a pretty consistant trend, IMO. We will now have to wait and see what the 0z shows. If it is similar, then we may have to really consider the GFDL as a possibility and be on guard.
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Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#6829 Postby aguaviva » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:38 pm

In Old San Juan on the ocean side it has been getting increasingly blustery and gusty. Those clouds are really moving fast from the east.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6830 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:38 pm

tolakram wrote:
Innotech wrote:Im really not liking the fact that it has a small eye.
Not at all.


The image has refreshed since I posted it and now is pretty ragged. Might be the start of an ERC. I would not know, honestly.

No...it looks just as good as before..just instead of the eye being totally clear, theres a slight layer of clouds at the bottom of it...itll probably go back to clear all the way to the surface again at the next...this happens with developing eyes. I wouldnt expect an ERC for at least another day, since the eye it has still doesnt seem to be fully emptied out yet. The convection only reveals part of the eye, explaining its ever-changing shape with each frame, as opposed to very circular.
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#6831 Postby artist » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:39 pm

seems to me the eye is getting larger
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#6832 Postby Mathias » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:39 pm

Perhaps the models are picking up on the decrease in Dean's forward speed? Maybe Dean will miss the ULL's allowing the high to build in before the ULL's could drag it more northerly, leaving Dean with only a route to Mexico? The last few advisories have shown a gradual diminishment in Deans forward momentum.
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#6833 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:39 pm

Here is a larger model map showing more of the 12z and 18z runs:

Image

Currently the CLP5 (climatology model), AEMN (GFS ensemble consensus), GFDL, LGEM, HWRF and CMC all look pretty bad for the U.S.

BTW: LOL - check out that comical southern GFS model. It is by far the biggest outlier.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#6834 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:41 pm

Hopfully this is a shift back to the left. By tomorrow we may se it S of Brownsville.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6835 Postby Dmetal81 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:41 pm

Puerto Rico radar is picking up the eye quite well now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Bet Puerto Ricans are breathing a sigh of relief, thats not a pretty picture to their south!
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs=Vortex Data Message Shortly

#6836 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:41 pm

640
URNT15 KNHC 172340
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 11 20070817
233030 1455N 06506W 6964 02700 9471 +156 +145 033042 050 102 003 00
233100 1454N 06505W 6972 02671 9438 +172 +140 036022 029 047 001 00
233130 1453N 06503W 6962 02677 9429 +172 +139 067008 011 027 003 03
233200 1452N 06501W 6967 02671 9433 +172 +132 165006 011 028 003 00
233230 1451N 06500W 6965 02680 9444 +172 +108 200018 020 032 001 03
233300 1450N 06459W 6962 02693 9457 +171 +113 217031 041 051 004 00
233330 1449N 06457W 6973 02720 9535 +133 +128 217081 102 075 025 00
233400 1448N 06455W 6967 02794 9623 +116 +116 213104 106 082 044 03
233430 1447N 06454W 6972 02836 9652 +141 +095 203106 108 091 001 00
233500 1446N 06453W 6969 02874 9719 +111 +111 203097 100 089 001 00
233530 1445N 06452W 6962 02917 9763 +105 +105 205096 098 084 005 00
233600 1444N 06452W 6967 02941 9815 +088 +088 204089 092 077 008 00
233630 1443N 06451W 6965 02965 9834 +092 +092 205086 089 071 008 00
233700 1442N 06450W 6969 02978 9850 +097 +097 205083 085 066 008 00
233730 1441N 06448W 6967 02999 9878 +090 +090 207078 080 063 009 00
233800 1440N 06447W 6967 03012 9920 +070 +070 205071 073 061 010 00
233830 1439N 06446W 6968 03021 9942 +063 +063 202073 074 056 009 00
233900 1438N 06445W 6964 03038 9925 +085 +085 205069 070 054 005 00
233930 1437N 06444W 6970 03040 9932 +089 +068 205069 070 052 005 00
234000 1436N 06443W 6964 03054 9940 +090 +070 208065 066 051 006 00
$$
VDM shortly.
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#6837 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:42 pm

this ALL depends on Dean's forward Speed.
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#6838 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:42 pm

I am guessing 130 kt by 11 pm, and we will have a Cat 5 by dawn...
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs=Vortex Data Message Shortly

#6839 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:43 pm

this looks like FL100... 700mb
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6840 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:44 pm

Dick Pache wrote:Getting close to buoy 42059

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059


I hope we don't lose it.
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