CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aquawind]

seems to me the eye is getting larger

I think it's clearing out..

[KatDaddy]

Looking better for TX at this point as Dean slows down and models turn much further S.

[Weatherfreak14]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Summery:

My Hurricane Dean forecast as of 8pm Fri night. Hurricane Dean has became a Dangerous major hurricane today and now looking like a possible CAT 4 tonight or into tomorrow morning. This is and will be a dangerous hurricane for Jamaica and possible the Yucatan and also the US.

Intensity: Now: 125mph as of 5pm advisory
11pm Advisory: 135 mph
5pm Advisory Tomorrow: 155mph
11am Sunday: 140mph
11am Monday: 160mph
11am Tuesday: 160mph

Track of Dean:

Dean is at a current position 15.0N and 64.5 W. I do expect a general track to the west until it interacts with the ULL. Then it will start a W- WNW track and I think Jamaica will be slammed with a strong Cat 4 or maybe even a Cat 5, Dean will then move over the Cayman Islands with a fast WNW track. I think also by no luck Dean will possibly go between the Yucatan and Cuba keeping it a dangerous CAT 4 to a possible CAT 5. A WNW to maybe NW turn could be expected Tuesday toward the TX and LA coast. Very uncertain with this track but this is how I think it could play out. Everyone from Brownsville, TX to New Orleans, LA should keep a big eye on this.



Weatherfreak14--- Stephen

[wxman57]

18Z GFDL is interesting. 909mb/150 kts, heading for Freeport, TX early Wednesday morning:

HOUR: .0 LONG: -63.61 LAT: 14.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.01
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -65.27 LAT: 15.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):115.93
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -66.96 LAT: 15.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):128.70
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -68.62 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.51
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -70.23 LAT: 16.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):126.14
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -71.80 LAT: 16.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):128.94
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -73.70 LAT: 17.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.67
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -75.54 LAT: 18.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.27
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.37 LAT: 18.69 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.77
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -79.27 LAT: 19.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.99
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -81.09 LAT: 19.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):141.40
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -82.93 LAT: 20.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 916.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):147.26
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -84.72 LAT: 21.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 913.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):151.88
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.34 LAT: 21.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 908.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):150.08
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -87.92 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 907.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):152.92
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -89.49 LAT: 23.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 910.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):152.13
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -90.95 LAT: 24.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 910.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):147.08
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -92.38 LAT: 26.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 912.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):141.88
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -93.99 LAT: 27.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 909.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):150.27
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -95.55 LAT: 28.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 913.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):137.47
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -96.96 LAT: 29.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.29
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -98.00 LAT: 30.85 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.49

[weatherguru18]

Ok...I'm having trouble here and I don't know what to tell people. I need some help.

Of "The Big 4" three take it to Brownsville and one takes it Laffeyette. My parents are ringing the phone off the hook wondering if they should spend the money to board up. I want to say that this thing will likely take a northly turn due to the Beta Drift and the UUL approaching from the west. However the consistancy with the gfs and others is uncanny at the very least. I just don't know what to tell people. I pray that if it hits, it is apparent that we are the target. I hope it doesn't pull a Rita and begin to turn toward us 36hrs in advance.

[Steve]

>>There will be an awfully lot of...

Not me, I breathed a sign of relief. I'm heading down to Grand Isle tonight to drink, play cards and go speckle trout fishing in the am. I glad that I don't have to rush back home to overview evacuation plans and such. In the unlikely event that would become necessary, I can be packed and gone in 30 minutes. It will come down to Anniston, the ATL or Austin. All 3 options have their strong points .

Not glad for Galveston, Houston or points farther south, but we've got a few days. Unless things change drastically, I'm feeling a lot better about things than I was when I got back from lunch today (tempered with the understanding that good news for me is bad news for somebody else).

Yet as usual, you gotta know that with 4-5 days to go, there should be some unpredictable swings in models, conditions and such to show us all that just when you thought you knew everything...



Steve

[cycloneye]

357
URNT15 KNHC 172350
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 12 20070817
234030 1435N 06442W 6968 03058 9944 +094 +067 210061 062 050 006 00
234100 1434N 06441W 6964 03069 9959 +087 +068 211059 059 049 001 00
234130 1433N 06440W 6967 03073 9966 +087 +064 211057 058 047 002 00
234200 1431N 06439W 6969 03075 9968 +092 +059 211055 056 046 002 00
234230 1430N 06437W 6965 03084 9974 +089 +063 211054 055 045 001 00
234300 1429N 06436W 6965 03087 9981 +087 +071 210052 053 044 003 00
234330 1428N 06435W 6967 03093 9990 +085 +077 210050 050 045 002 00
234400 1427N 06434W 6967 03095 9994 +085 +078 210049 049 043 002 00
234430 1426N 06433W 6968 03098 9999 +085 +079 209047 048 042 002 00
234500 1424N 06432W 6964 03103 9997 +088 +077 209044 045 041 001 00
234530 1423N 06430W 6967 03103 0000 +088 +078 212042 042 043 004 00
234600 1422N 06429W 6967 03106 0006 +083 +082 217042 043 046 005 00
234630 1421N 06428W 6975 03102 0022 +076 +076 222042 044 046 006 03
234700 1419N 06427W 6960 03118 0014 +083 +083 219042 042 047 005 00
234730 1418N 06426W 6969 03112 0032 +072 +072 220042 043 047 007 00
234800 1417N 06425W 6956 03128 0040 +065 +065 216038 040 046 023 05
234830 1415N 06424W 6970 03113 0021 +083 +082 212037 038 045 005 00
234900 1414N 06423W 6954 03134 0040 +068 +068 211039 041 043 039 03
234930 1414N 06421W 6974 03114 0047 +069 +069 192039 040 043 004 03
235000 1413N 06420W 6960 03132 0025 +087 +070 192044 045 044 003 03
$$

[artist]

take care aguaviva

[canetracker]

>>There will be an awfully lot of...

Not me, I breathed a sign of relief. I'm heading down to Grand Isle tonight to drink, play cards and go speckle trout fishing in the am. I glad that I don't have to rush back home to overview evacuation plans and such. In the unlikely event that would become necessary, I can be packed and gone in 30 minutes. It will come down to Anniston, the ATL or Austin. All 3 options have their strong points .

Not glad for Galveston, Houston or points farther south, but we've got a few days. Unless things change drastically, I'm feeling a lot better about things than I was when I got back from lunch today (tempered with the understanding that good news for me is bad news for somebody else).

Steve

Ditto on that. We do have to hope Dean stays at a slower motion.

[Stratosphere747]

Ok...I'm having trouble here and I don't know what to tell people. I need some help.

Of "The Big 4" three take it to Brownsville and one takes it Laffeyette. My parents are ringing the phone off the hook wondering if they should spend the money to board up. I want to say that this thing will likely take a northly turn due to the Beta Drift and the UUL approaching from the west. However the consistancy with the gfs and others is uncanny at the very least. I just don't know what to tell people. I pray that if it hits, it is apparent that we are the target. I hope it doesn't pull a Rita and begin to turn toward us 36hrs in advance.

Patience...

I think you can see my location. By Sunday, I'll let you know if it's time to get overly concerned.

[CrazyC83]

Hopfully this is a shift back to the left. By tomorrow we may se it S of Brownsville.

Don't tell that to the Mexicans...

[jasons2k]

I dunno what's more entertaining, watching the models shift according to their known biases or watching the comments on the board follow the models. In the short time I've spent on the board today we've gone from the awakening of the MS crew to 'the eastward shift is over; it's back to Mexico'. Is it any surprise the EURO is almost due west, or that the GFDL is the northern outlier? No. The only mystery is the GFS....which is typical for the GFS. So nothing new here. Tomorrow will probably bring an equally crazy ride. Like many have posted, we probabably won't know the state, or even country, in the crosshairs until Sunday. The models will swing until then, especially with this much disagreement.

[Frank P]

Its been going back and forth from TX to LA since yesterday afternoon.. has not gone below central TX nor east of south central LA... this latest track and intensity run would be unbelievable if it comes to fruition... I am hoping for a much lower track into nothern Mexico... selfish on my part true, but rather them than us I guess... US has taken too many major hits since 2004.... still have a long way to go with this, tracks will change.. I just hope intensity also changes to something less severe...

[deltadog03]

I just don't see dean slowing down that much...

[KatDaddy]

Hey WXman do think the GFDL is just coming line with majority of the other models thus it will shift more S over time or do think its seeing the ULL E of Florida having more an effect than currently seen by the other models? The ULL is spinning pretty good E of Florida which is hardly moving. Meanwhile even though Dean has slowed a bit he is still moving W. I also see a thunderstorm over Haiti moving N. I am guess Dean is getting fairly close to interacting with the ULL.

[Sabanic]

poor Mexico

[KBBOCA]

MODS:

wxman57's post above is so clear and helpful.
viewtopic.php?p=1602005#p1602005

I wonder if it's time to really ramp up a Texas / Louisiana info thread ONLY for such postings by local pro mets, and for official advisory Emergency Mgmt type posts.

Maybe use the current evac thread, but rename it and post very clear guidelines as to what is appropriate?

All "chatter" (even "we're thinking of and praying for you) should be banned in that thread. Posts by and for local residents in the likely landfall areas only focusing on specific facts and practical info...

Just my two cents as a concerned outside observer. These kinds of posts shouldn't be buried in a 180+ page thread for those under great stress and needing timely and clear info.

[Yankeegirl]

It will be interesting to see which one of the computer models wins...That GFDL has always been more north of any of the other models, yet none of the other models have picked up on what the GFDL is on to... Should be an interesting weekend, wonder how many times the models are going to flip flop!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking better for TX at this point as Dean slows down and models turn much further S.

Dean hasn't slowed down yet though...still moving at 21mph...and I don't really see how he would slow either. A strong high to the north would equal a fast motion. The only way he would really slow significantly is if he found a weakness or if the high became less powerful (which in turn would also likely lead to more of a WNW or NW motion).

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, with the GFS and the GFDL both trending south last run, perhaps this may be the trend...Kinda crazy that the GFS is taking it into the Pacific Ocean now.