Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Looks like my guess of 120 kt and 946mb will be close...it might be a bit lower pressure-wise (they got a 943mb extrapolated)...

[Starburst]

I thought it was only an 80% reduction

[Aquawind]

Their timing is good for hitting an intensification cycle. What a beast.

[miamicanes177]

232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01

130kts is the 10 second wind and I believe that is whats used..90% conversion would be 135mph

[gotoman38]

130kts at max FL 10 second wind gust. They are flying around 700mb again, so a 90% Reduction to 117kts makes it Cat 4 with near 135mph winds. And this is just in NW Quad.

I plot this in the SW quad??

[tolakram]

232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01

130kts is the 10 second wind and I believe that is whats used..90% conversion would be 135mph

Isn't that 126 with gusts to 130?

[cheezyWXguy]

232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01

130kts is the 10 second wind and I believe that is whats used..90% conversion would be 135mph

Isn't that 126 with gusts to 130?

I have no idea, im not very good at reading recon, but either Ortt or Wxman said it had winds of 123kts at the surface, which equals 140-145mph

[wxman57]

I just got a Vortex in my email. It's clear Dean is a Cat 4 now probably on its way to Cat 5.

URNT12 KNHC 172356

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/23:32:00Z
B. 14 deg 52 min N
065 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb 2632 m
D. 119 kt
E. 302 deg 006 nm
F. 048 deg 130 kt
G. 309 deg 010 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 23:29:00

[gotoman38]

232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01

130kts is the 10 second wind and I believe that is whats used..90% conversion would be 135mph

Isn't that 126 with gusts to 130?

I have no idea, im not very good at reading recon, but either Ortt or Wxman said it had winds of 123kts at the surface, which equals 140-145mph

yes - flight level = 126kt 30 avg with max gust of 130 kt

[Thunder44]

232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01

130kts is the 10 second wind and I believe that is whats used..90% conversion would be 135mph

Isn't that 126 with gusts to 130?

I have no idea, im not very good at reading recon, but either Ortt or Wxman said it had winds of 123kts at the surface, which equals 140-145mph

Latest VDM has a pressure of 946mb with max FL wind 130kts. I think they do use the gusts.

[CrazyC83]

Will they go 115 or 120 kt though?

[wxwatcher91]

well notice the 8pm advisory uses "AT LEAST 130mph"

[Dave C]

The way the eye has cleared out on latest sat. pic. I wouldn't be surprised to see lower pressures as they make the rest of their eye penetrations during this flight, looking a lot like Ivan as he passed through the same part of the carrabean.

[Thunder44]

123 kt wind.VDM will come soon.

I've noticed many of the SFMR are "suspect". Including this one. Probably why they only used the FL winds to for intensity.

[timeflow]

I'm watching the plotted progress on Google Earth, under the Blue Marble and Global Cloud maps, what an incredible awesome thing it is that we have all this technology that puts all of us right there in the action, in near real time. I remember shadowing at the Westchester County Airport back in 1985 in 8th grade. Just getting a good radar print outs was exceptional at the time... and connection somewhat costly. It's hard to ever take Google Earth and this Forum for granted, all of this is just so incredibly cool. Particularly the memories of '05 when Wilma bombed overnight, and many of us were up watching the recon reports come in, jaws dropping. As for Dean reminds me most of Ivan (of course), the growing epic satellite presentation, size and depth. Ivan formed way out around 10 degrees north there abouts.

Anyhow, I was going to ask, when is the plane going to turn around?...then I just looked back at GE and see they are heading in for a stab at the NE eyewall... here we go!

[RL3AO]

How do I get the clouds? I have the plot map.

[timeflow]

This KML file has both Blue Marble (which adds a bit of a 3D glow of the atmosphere) and a Global Cloud Map (cloud layer). As you scroll into the plots the clouds part, hehe.

http://www.nearby.org.uk/google/setupEarth_loader.kml.pl

[Thunder44]

136kt FL wind found in NE Quad.

[cycloneye]

It keeps deepening,they found a lowest pressure of 935 mbs.

[timeflow]

935.8mb?? wow - and 136kt, how does that translate to the surface? It's getting closer to Cat 5 fast.