CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

Here is 18z GFDL on the NCEP site:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I can't make much perspective out of that link. I see it pass Cuba, and then it goes somewhere...

Wider view:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[marcane_1973]

Mannn poor ol Jamaica. Probably going to take a direct hit from a mean Dean with winds now 135mph and probably will strengthen further before landfall. Going to be some fatalities for sure I feel for everyone on that Island right now. What is the most powerful hurricane on record to hit jamaica???

[Evil Jeremy]

No, its 19 MPH now.

[CrazyC83]

I dont even think 130mph is used in advisories: 110kts is 125mph and 115kts is 135mph.

I have seen it used but rarely. It is only used when it rounds to 115 kt, but actual land data (usually at landfall) do not justify Cat 4. Ivan at landfall operationally used such.

[Innotech]

Mannn poor ol Jamaica. Probably going to take a direct hit from a mean Dean with winds now 135mph and probably will strengthen further before landfall. Going to be some fatalities for sure I feel for everyone on that Island right now. What is the most powerful hurricane on record to hit jamaica???

Gilbert I think.

[artist]

I just talked to a friend whose family lives there and she was saying because of the mountains it really helps to soften the blow. I sure hope she is right. Have they ever had a cat. 4 or 5 hit there?

[Sanibel]

Big west veer down the 15 latitude. Really didn't expect that. - Goes to show you can't predict these things sometimes. We'll see if it's the ridge or a wobble.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's an important Jamaican radio station for updates over the next several days:

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[Cape Verde]

Wider view:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well, crap. The Galveston Bay strike was worse for the nation, but that model run flattens my house. I take faint hope in the fact that these models are subject to change, and most surely will.

[canegrl04]

No, its 19 MPH now.

I read the 8pm discussion.Its 19kts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

On the other hand the thing is slowing down. It is moving 19 mph, I think this is the first time in its life it moved less then 20 mph. I that could be a sign that it is reaching a weaker part of the ridge. Yes it has turned westward but that could be a short term thing. But don't be suprized if its moving slower then 15 tomarrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Big west veer down the 15 latitude. Really didn't expect that. - Goes to show you can't predict these things sometimes. We'll see if it's the ridge or a wobble.

yeah, radar shows it moving due west or may be a hair north of due west at the current time: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

Should be interesting to watch this loop and see how the movement changes over the course of this evening.

[Duddy]

No, its 19 MPH now.

I read the 8pm discussion.Its 19kts.

LOL!

[RL3AO]

109
URNT15 KNHC 180020
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 15 20070818
001030 1347N 06342W 6965 03161 0064 +091 +061 199038 038 036 000 00
001100 1349N 06343W 6967 03160 0062 +092 +056 199038 039 035 000 00
001130 1351N 06343W 6967 03160 0059 +094 +054 197039 040 036 000 00
001200 1353N 06343W 6967 03159 0059 +095 +053 197040 041 036 000 00
001230 1355N 06344W 6967 03158 0057 +095 +056 198041 042 036 000 00
001300 1357N 06344W 6967 03159 0053 +098 +052 196043 043 037 000 00
001330 1400N 06344W 6967 03159 0053 +097 +053 193044 044 037 000 00
001400 1402N 06345W 6967 03159 0056 +095 +054 193045 045 039 000 00
001430 1404N 06345W 6967 03158 0056 +095 +053 192046 046 039 000 00
001500 1406N 06346W 6967 03158 0054 +095 +057 189046 046 038 000 00
001530 1408N 06346W 6967 03157 0054 +095 +057 189047 047 038 000 00
001600 1410N 06346W 6967 03153 0053 +093 +058 188047 047 037 000 00
001630 1412N 06347W 6967 03155 0053 +091 +057 184048 048 038 000 00
001700 1415N 06347W 6968 03152 0056 +089 +060 183048 048 038 000 00
001730 1417N 06347W 6967 03152 0058 +088 +060 179048 048 039 002 00
001800 1419N 06348W 6967 03152 0061 +085 +062 177048 049 040 001 00
001830 1421N 06348W 6967 03151 0061 +083 +064 177049 050 041 002 00
001900 1423N 06348W 6965 03153 0066 +080 +068 176051 051 040 004 00
001930 1425N 06348W 6967 03152 0065 +080 +070 175052 053 040 004 00
002000 1428N 06348W 6967 03152 0065 +080 +071 172053 053 040 003 00
$$

[HeeBGBz]

I see where the GFDL has moved to the W into TX. WWL-TV 4 out of NOLA prepared a nice little video clip on their website earlier today which explained what factors would have to come into play to allow Dean to come up into S central LA but I'll imagine that video clip will be updated soon now that the GFDL model has been shifted further to the W into TX. So I guess the MS Gulf Coast is now considered safe because of that model's recent shift to the W into TX?

I don't feel all that safe. I just remember it was just a couple days prior to landfall that Katrina cast her big eye on MS. I also know the sweltering heat of last week has fallen to less sweltering heat and we're getting the afternoon stormy clouds back. What that feels to me is the high that's supposed to keep Dean away from here, may have moved on.

I am very wary. One more change of the GFDL doesn't mean much when there are other computer models also pointing more north. I've seen too many hurricanes do that curvy unexpectedness move that always results in a heartfelt "Oh, crap! "

[Normandy]

The storm is moving 19kts, not 19 mph.

19 kts = 21.8 mph, rounded up to 22.

[MusicCityMan]

Sanibel.. don't say that.. Dean's listening lol.. Remember.. Fla still has a target on it's back from 04 and 05 and lucked out in 06 really because Ernesto spent too much time over Cuba,

[weatherman21]

GOES IR at 23:45Z


A Closer Look at 23:45Z

[jwayne]

so is the new advisory just wrong in saying 19mph? vortex said 16knots, right?

[Frank P]

Per the NHC's last advisory..

"DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH"