CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mgpetre]

Sometimes I wish I'd stayed in the plains... following a tornado event is so much quicker and overall less stressfull. Does anyone see a scenario left that will keep Dean from being a historic hurricane?

[Praxus]

I was there in december. Buildings were mostly all fixed. But the vegetation was quite extensively damaged.

[CrazyC83]

491
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow:
Replay of Mitch 1998 when it hit Latin America so hard and kill so many people?

Remember: Mitch's strength was not what killed so many, it was the intense rainfall it dumped as a tropical depression/low pressure area.

Thanks for the reminder......

[Hurricane Cheese]

The 00z GFS should start coming out at any minute. Should be interesting to see if it stays as far south as the crazy 18z run (which basically turns Dean into a Pacific storm), or if it trends back further north.

It would be extremely rare to see a storm like this track due west to slightly north of west for over a week straight....climatologically speaking, this late in the year storms of this magnitude don't just ram into Mexico and head into the Pacific. Keep your guard up people.

[HurryKane]

Sometimes I wish I'd stayed in the plains... following a tornado event is so much quicker and overall less stressfull. Does anyone see a scenario left that will keep Dean from being a historic hurricane?

Complete 180 degree shift in the magnetic poles? Other than that...

[jhamps10]

Sometimes I wish I'd stayed in the plains... following a tornado event is so much quicker and overall less stressfull. Does anyone see a scenario left that will keep Dean from being a historic hurricane?

unfourntally not really, unless a miracle happens.

Boy, I sure hope that this misses Jamaica, too good of a country to be slammed like that.

[Praxus]

Can jamaican shelters stand up to a direct hit from a cat 4 or 5?

[Extremeweatherguy]

12hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif

[CrazyC83]

680
URNT15 KNHC 180330
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 34 20070818
032030 1537N 06647W 6965 03134 0028 +091 +081 059058 058 053 003 00
032100 1539N 06648W 6967 03136 0025 +095 +078 059057 058 053 001 00
032130 1540N 06649W 6967 03138 0026 +095 +077 060057 058 052 002 00
032200 1541N 06650W 6960 03146 0037 +091 +084 061058 060 999 999 03
032230 1543N 06651W 6968 03139 0037 +091 +086 060059 060 051 001 03
032300 1544N 06653W 6967 03144 0043 +090 +085 060058 058 051 002 00
032330 1545N 06654W 6967 03145 0045 +090 +087 059058 059 050 002 00
032400 1546N 06655W 6964 03150 0053 +084 +084 059060 061 049 001 00
032430 1548N 06656W 6967 03148 0061 +080 +080 060057 058 050 000 00
032500 1549N 06657W 6967 03152 0061 +080 +080 062057 058 048 000 00
032530 1551N 06659W 6969 03150 0052 +088 +081 060053 054 048 000 00
032600 1552N 06700W 6967 03151 0057 +086 +081 057055 056 048 000 00
032630 1553N 06701W 6966 03156 0058 +089 +080 058053 054 049 000 00
032700 1554N 06702W 6970 03155 0057 +090 +077 057055 055 049 000 00
032730 1556N 06703W 6967 03155 0054 +093 +071 057053 055 049 000 00
032800 1557N 06704W 6968 03158 0054 +094 +068 058051 052 050 000 00
032830 1558N 06705W 6967 03159 0056 +095 +057 054051 051 049 000 00
032900 1600N 06706W 6965 03166 0060 +092 +053 053052 053 050 000 00
032930 1601N 06708W 6967 03162 0057 +097 +052 050054 054 050 000 00
033000 1602N 06709W 6965 03165 0060 +093 +058 052055 056 045 000 00
$$

[fasterdisaster]

Already looks like the GFS is considerably saner than before.

[deltadog03]

xtreme, do you really think that dean is only gonna move that much in the next 12hrs?

[sau27]

here comes activation of the Houston hurricane shield. Quite an interesting thing. it always seems to pop up when there could possibly be a hurricane in our future.

[Extremeweatherguy]

xtreme, do you really think that dean is only gonna move that much in the next 12hrs?

I think it's possible. It might be a tad faster. We'll see.

[jhamps10]

here comes activation of the Houston hurricane shield. Quite an interesting thing. it always seems to pop up when there could possibly be a hurricane in our future.

could we please not have ANY talk about hurricane shilds and yada like that. because it will make people put their guard down, and we do NOT need that at all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

24 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

Once again..way too weak at 24 hrs!

[HouTXmetro]

I can't accurately read these things but it appears the GFS is still too weak and slow so far. Is that correct?

[KBBOCA]

I can't (yet?) find any confirmation of the report posted on Storm Carib that the Jamaican airport is closing early. Air Jamaica has this information posted on their website. Note especially the numbers for updated info at the end.
-------

Travel Advisory -
Hurricane Dean

Kingston, Jamaica - August 16, 2007
AIR JAMAICA GUARANTEED TRAVEL PROGRAM

Air Jamaica has instituted its guaranteed travel program due to the onset of Hurricane Dean. It is expected that this hurricane will affect some parts of the Caribbean over the next few days.

Passengers holding tickets issued on or before August 16, 2007 for travel to/from Barbados, Bonaire, Curacao, Grand Cayman, Grenada, Kingston, Montego Bay, Nassau, and St. Lucia for travel August 17 - 24, 2007 may change their itinerary without penalty subject to the following conditions:
• Passengers must already be in possession of tickets.
• Passengers will be guaranteed the same fare as they were originally ticketed on within the applicable fare parameters up to August 24, 2007.
• A request for deferral of travel must be made prior to departure of the original travel date.
• Tickets with an expiry date during the above-mentioned period will be extended for travel up to August 24, 2007. Passengers are advised to keep a record of their locator number.
• Passengers with totally unused tickets who have decided not to travel will be issued a voucher for future travel on Air Jamaica for the full value of the ticket without penalty. The voucher will be valid for one year from the date of issue. Exception: Passengers originating in London will receive a full refund without penalty.

Changes to origin, destination, travel date and fare type may result in an increase to the fare. Any difference in the fare between original and the new ticket will be collected.

Passengers are encouraged to check here for regular updates of important information pertaining to any of our routes, or call our Reservations department:

Jamaica: 1-888-FLY-AIRJ

US, Canada, Caribbean: 1-800-523-5585

UK: 0-208-570-7999

[fasterdisaster]

I can't accurately read these things but it appears the GFS is still too weak and slow so far. Is that correct?

Correct, however by my eyes it appears that they have gone considerably farther north so far.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can't accurately read these things but it appears the GFS is still too weak and slow so far. Is that correct?

Yes, it is way too weak. In 24 hours it is showing something similar to a TS. There is just no way this is going to go from a Strong Cat. 4 down to a TS in that timeframe. As for speed it may be slightly too slow, but generally it is in line with the NHC track speed.